Next IPCC Report - Canada Must Prepare For Heatwaves, Water Shortages - Underwriter

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is preparing to launch its second report this year, which found that Canada can expect to see major issues around heat waves and water shortages, reports the Toronto Star.

The Star obtained a near-final draft of the report’s technical summary, and reported that nearly six pages of the document are devoted to climate change impact and vulnerability in North America and the polar regions. For the Great Lakes and major river systems, “lower water levels are likely to exacerbate issues of water quality, navigation, hydro-power generation, water diversions and bi-national co-operation,” the IPCC summary suggests. T

he Star also reported that a recurring theme is higher health and safety risk in North American cities because of heat waves. “Severe heat waves, characterized by stagnant, warm air masses and consecutive nights with high minimum temperatures, are likely to intensify in magnitude and duration over portions of the U.S. and Canada, where they already occur,” the researchers said.

“By 2050, deaths linked to smog could increase by almost five per cent because of higher ozone levels in cities already blighted by smog,” the Star reported.

EDIT

http://www.canadianunderwriter.ca/issues/ISArticle.asp?id=67260&issue=04022007

He is a senior scientist with the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans. He was one of the two Lead Contributing Authors of the report of Working Group 1 of the IPCC, and represented the Canadian scientific community at the Paris release of the SPM. His specialty is biogeochemical feedbacks in climate change. His area of expertise is the oceanic carbon cycle, including CO2 solubility, acidification and the effects on marine life. He's worked with a lot of the big Comprehensive Climate Models, and showed us some of the charts and data from the as-yet-unreleased full report of WG1.

Some of the graphics included the latest version of the 650,000 year 3-line ice core graph of temperature, CO2 and CH4. This one included a partial reconstruction of historical NOx as well as the addition of the hockey-stick ending on all three complete lines. It's still a real shocker to see the last ten thousand years on all lines played out as a vertical spike rising above all the rest of the data.

He talked about ocean acidification, and the probability that marine organisms in some areas will not be able to form carbonate shells before the end of the century. He talked about the implication of this for finfish species (e.g. salmon) that rely on these organisms for the calcium to build their skeletons.

He talked about how the models are just beginning to introduce dynamic aspects of the carbon cycle, and how complex the process is.

He talked about how oceanic warming is an order of magnitude greater in terms of heat content than land and atmospheric warming put together, and how oceanic warming has been detected down to 3,000 metres. He talked about the effect of ocean warming on CO2 solubility (i.e. it declines).

He talked about how the temperature forcing from CO2 is an order of magnitude greater than all other factors put together, and how it all comes from burning fossil fuels.

He talked about what a catastrophic idea the Canadian Tar Sands development is, where a barrel-equivalent of our dwindling natural gas is burned to produce two barrels of synthetic crude for export.

He pointed out the psychological difference to policy-makers between the official phrase, "There is less than a 10% chance of a rapid disruption of the Meriodonal Overturning Circulation before 2100" and his preferred wording, "There is up to a 10% chance of a rapid disruption of the Meriodonal Overturning Circulation before 2100."

He talked about Canada's recent change of government and the role politicians have played in this drama in oblique but uncomplimentary terms.

He said he is extremely pessimistic that we will avoid the upper end of the projected warming range.

I asked him about Peak Oil after the talk. He's just recently become aware of the idea after hearing about Colin Campbell's work and wondering why this guy was so out of step with everyone else. Then he sat through a presentation by Canadian geophysicist and energy analyst Dr. David Hughes, at which Hughes laid out the whole Tar Sands/natural gas supply fiasco, and he got the point instantly. He said most IPCC scientists are convinced that we'll just switch to coal and carry on. He acknowledged that the effects of Peak Oil as he understands them could overtake those of Global Warming within the next decade or two.

He said he doesn't give a shit any more about the effects of his outspoken positions on his career. He says the problem is way too big to worry about things like civil service careers.

Even the scientists think it's worse than we're being told, and say that the message is not capturing the seriousness of the situation.

Crap.

I was talking with David Hughes at ASPO Boston, and the talk rolled around to the political/professional "constraints" of his job, and the question of "why?" came up.

He said (paraphrasing) that he's got enough seniority in the geological service that he pretty much doesn't have to give a shit anymore and, more to the point, "I have two daughters."

Good enough.

We've been looking at buying land up North....guess that ole Canada won't be much better than the rest of the planet, eh??? :eyes: