Total, Shell Chief Executives Say `Easy Oil' Is Gone

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aH57.uZe.sAI&refer=energy

April 5 (Bloomberg) -- The days of so-called ``easy oil'' are over, making it harder to meet demand without complicated and expensive projects, the heads of two of Europe's largest oil companies said today.

The International Energy Agency, an adviser to energy importing nations, estimates oil supply will have to rise 39 percent to 116 million barrels of oil a day by 2030 from about 86 million barrels a day now to meet world demand.

Meeting such targets with conventional oil sources will be ``extremely difficult,'' Christophe de Margerie, the chief executive officer of Total SA, Europe's third-largest oil company and its largest refiner, said at a conference in Paris today. New supply will be based on ``huge high-tech'' projects.

Jeroen van der Veer, the chief executive officer of Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's largest oil company, said countries no longer seek Shell's help with conventional reserves, such as onshore oil or gas that's cheaper to develop than offshore fields.

<more>

I've been trying to convince conservative friends at work about peak oil, and they just look at me like I'm a loon. Why people think it's a infinite resource is beyond me.

eom

and listen (or get a link for them to listen) to Matthew Simmons' latest interview. It should convince them.

I first became convinced of the truth of Peak Oil after seeing Matthew Simmons on C-SPAN. I've read a lot more since then, and the truth is staggering. The big producers keep their "reserve" data as state secrets because they know how exaggerated their "reserves" are. It's an open question whether the world's oil economy will end with a whimper or a bang.

We need to move on to other energy sources anyways... pretty soon it will be easier/cheaper to produce biofuels and other clean sources of energy.

We rely on fossil-fuel-based fertilizers and fuels to cultivate land and produce huge yields to keep the world fed. This will become increasingly important as the oceans die and climate change destroys farmland around the world. But at the same time, our supplies of fossil fuels to farm the land will be declining. 6.5 billion people is a bit over carrying capacity for this planet, ya know.

I like to ask people what they believe will replace oil. Your thoughts would be?? IMHO. there is no alternative to replace oil on the scale needed for future use..

I don't know exactly what will replace oil, I only know that it is essential that we replace it, and the sooner we do it, the better. Besides, if the current trend of oil use is unsustainable, then either we cut back gradually now or go cold turkey when the wells run dry.

Higher oil prices and reduced supply will be a blessing is disguise because higher prices will spur innovation of alternative fuels and help to hasten the transition we will ultimately need to make.

so lies the problem of mitigation. No alternative exists to replace any reasonable fraction of 80+ million barrels of crude oil per day, every day.

Powerdown is looking like a very good option but no welcomed..

Go check out the post recommended above by Delphinus. Matt Simmons says that if the big Pemex field, Cantarell, continues its current rate of decline, within three years our gulf coast refineries will have no oil to process. Zero! Zilch! Nada! Within 5 years we're going to be looking back fondly on the good old days, when oil was only $3.25 a gallon.