Global oil production to peak by 2018

Hmmm...and MSM too.

The flintstones are the cutting edge of modern technology, all I need now is a dinosaur rag top for my peddle vehicle.

your car. ;) LOL :rofl:

This means we don't have to worry about it for another 11 years. Maybe. By then they're sure to come up with something.

I can't believe someone on this forum said we can wait for 11 years.

I've corresponded with Chris Skrebowski of the UK's Petroleum Review, and I personally know Matt Mushalik. Matt is now calling "peak" of conventional stuff for 2005, and he's not given to alarmism. We have till maybe 2010 before the crisis hits.

We need our governments to prepare now, but they won't do anything until there is either a groundswell in public opinion or a crisis. Unfortunately, with the "They will just come up with something" attitude so present in society, there's going to be no groundswell of concern.

As Jim Kunstler says in his signature, "It's all good".

By crises do you mean substantial shortfall...

or economic dislocation...

or MadMax...

or worse?

Please expand on your answer.

disruption upon society.

Four pieces of advice. Get to know your neighbors, plant a garden, capture rain water and learn a trade that is marketable in a none oil based society. aka carpentry, metal working, fixing small engines, etc.

:sarcasm: tag.

prepare for something like this? Oh, I have done a bit, slowly adding solar, garden, etc but truly this nation is not even beginning to conserve and it doesn't do me much good to prepare if my neighbors are not doing so.

You do your bit as an individual for sure, solar hot water can cut 1/4 your energy bill, and super-cheap Solar PV could be on the way (NZ is working on dye's that mimic photo-synthesis and could be 10% the cost of today's SOlar PV, and Australia's Origin Energy are working on "Sliver cell" technology that uses silicon cut into very fine hairs or slivers).

But both of these produce electricity, not liquid fuels.

So... put up some of my posters? Inform your neighbours? Start a group of locals that meet up and talk about what they can do and who they know and what letters they can write? Get to know people in your city. There might even be an oil group already... try and find out if there is already a local group to you at...

http://www.peakoil.com/forums.html
http://www.relocalize.net/
http://oilawareness.meetup.com/


Put up some of my posters?

I like to inform people about peak oil where I work and yesterday I had the opportunity to make my presentation to an 18 years old workers. After I was done I ask him what he thought we should do and he stated(and you won't believe this) "WE SHOULD MAKE HOVER CRAFTS OR BE LIKE THE JETSON'S". I couldn't believe it!!

It's truely too late to really make a difference about peak oil IMHO.

Better than mine, I hope. Where I work, the two motorheads gave me an embarrassed smile and continued talking about Mopars, while the global warming scoffer gave me a flip of the hand and announced "there's always gonna be plenty of oil".

:eyes:

I just informed him(he's 18) that within his lifetime, oil would become scarce and that our lifestyles will change.. My hope is just to get more people thinking about their future instead of just today!!

It's way too late to prevent it from having massive global effects. It's not too late to help individuals prepare their lives to reduce the personal impact.

I've talked to everyone from 16 year olds like my GFs youngest daughter to work mates to people in their 80's like my parents. They all get it intellectually, though their emotional buy-in varies. The 16yo truly gets it, to the level of understanding why localized agriculture is essential, why it's a good thing that she likes farm animals and country living, to taking the bus instead of the car without a complaint. She's always mentally exploring what it might be like "when the world goes to hell in a handbag", as she puts it.

I do talk about very pessimistic scenarios when I present the topic, but I'm always careful to emphasize that specific effects will vary in different places, and that we just can't predict the details of how it will unfold yet. One key for encouraging acceptance of the idea is giving people a personal action plan that, while it won't save the world, may help them and their loved ones - at least to some degree. My HELP acronym (Humanize, Economize, Localize, Produce) goes over very will in this regard.

It's worth reading in its entirety. It's available here (PDF warning).

Robelius does a very thorough bottom-up analysis of the world's giant oil fields, the 500 out of 47,500 fields that produce over 60% of the world's oil, on the premise that production in the giants will dominate the world production picture. He looks closely at their production history, the prospects for new production, the likelihood of finding new giants (close to 0 at this point), and develops 4 cases - worst case, low standard case, high standard case and best case. The peak dates for the four cases range from 2008 to 2013 for the giant fields, with a peak date range of 2008 to 2018 for all fields. In all cases his analysis predicts very steep declines immediately following the peak. It's a very sobering treatment.

Here's the graph showing his four cases for the giant fields:



My personal opinion (OK, it's just a SWAG) based on everything I've read over the last three years of obsessing on this topic, is that we should expect reality to fall between the worst case and the low average case. We are on the plateau now, and should expect to come off it by the end of 2008. After that we should be prepared for an initial decline rate of about 2% per year, steepening to 4% by 2012 and 8% by 2020.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,266764,00.html

Of course, this is more on the Fredrik Robelius thesis and its conclusions, but hey, two MSM sources in two days? Along with the analyses on TheOilDrum.com and PeakOil.com, as well as an increasing number of oil industry professionals, investors, and news outlets, the silence is becoming low rumble.