Rare Category 4 Hurricane In Arabian Sea, Heading For Oman

Amazing Tropical Cyclone Gonu
Monday, June 04, 2007
June 4, 2007

--I can say with confidence that this forecaster has never seen the likes of this:

Ta Category-4 (130-kts, or 240 kph) hurricane over the northern Arabian Sea. The wind speeds are estimated (as of 0600 Hours GMT) by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). A look at full-disk infrared imagery (from the India Met. Dept.--IMD) helps to afford better perspective on TC Gonu and South Asia:

here is TC Gonu, unusually powerful and unusually far to the northwest--and it is headed towards the northwest. Thus, the first land in the path of Gonu, as it is now moving, would be easternmost Oman. And this is where the latest JTWC advisory takes Gonu--ashore southeast of Masqat. As far as numerical forecast models, the GFS is still handling Gonu poorly, but the ECMWF, which has been remarkably prescient on this amazing storm, is still taking a powerful low ashore in SE Oman--and even into interior eastern Arabia. I cannot rule out extreme, unusual weather in UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to at least Al Ahsa and the southern/middle Najd (Riyadh).

Hopefully, more on Gonu later today (Monday).

EDIT/END

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?blog=andrews&date=2007-06-04_11:02&month=6

Guys, if you could kick this, I'd appreciate it. This is really fucking weird.

On edit: Cat 5 status may have been yesterday, but I'm still looking for information from the Joint Typhoon Center.

Second edit - changed header from Cat 5 to Cat 4.

WTIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.9N 64.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 64.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.8N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.4N 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.1N 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.0N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.5N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 63.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (GONU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 02A CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A SECOND
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. A WEAKNESS EXISTS BETWEEN
THE TWO RIDGES DUE TO A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
THAT CONTINUE TO TRANSIT NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WEAKNESS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN IRAN AND THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF IRAN AFTER
TAU 48. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT THIS STRONG
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGES AND INDICATE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
INTO THE GULF OF OMAN. EGRR, GFS, ECMWF AND AFWA MM5 DEPICT A
STRONGER RIDGE OVER SAUDI ARABIA AND THEREFORE LESS OF A TURN
NORTHWARD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, KEEPING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOW. WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. THE STORM HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WATER WITH LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, BUT MAINTAINS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 02A IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT
OF DRY AIR FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND THEN LAND EFFECTS AFTER
LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF OMAN. DUE
TO LAND EFFECTS AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR, TC 02A IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER THE GULF OF OMAN BY
TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//

NNNN



https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/io0207web.txt

Whiskey. Tango. Foxtrot.

into the Gulf.

This should be, well, interesting.

Looks like the easy motoring fiesta is about to GONU.

that photo??

...that is about to go underwater. But don't worry, they are building another one there that's shaped like a world map.

It's going to be underwater soon, too...

Thanks. It's an amazing thing, isn't it?

...in about 60 years, they'll be completely inundated by water, unless they build giant levees around them (which, of course, will ruin the view from the beachfront properties).

Click the NASA link below, then click the link under one of the True color Thumbnails that says Pixel size: 250m

<http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?AERONET_Dhabi/2007154>

or click the link below, then click the link for the 250m resolution image at the top of the page that says:

View alternate pixel size: 1km | 500m | 250m
<http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?AERONET_Dhabi/2007154/AERONET_Dhabi.2007154.terra>

They are of the shore at Dubai

Wouldn't the engineers who developed those billionaire estates, have considered that a cyclone might flood them?

There has never ever been one here before, as far as I can determine. Given that history, there would be little reason to plan for one.

how well these man made islands would do in a bad storm. now we can see.

bring more, and more frequent, rain to areas we now know as deserts.

I guess Oman will get all the rain we DIDN'T here in SoCal this past year.........

nt

And will the fundies credit god with punishing the "muslims"; all while blaming the muslims for the price of gas....

I certainly can't remember one.

I know this is really powerful but I know nothing about this sort of thing so more information would really help me out. Has there never been a storm that powerful in the indian ocean?

Sure. Happens all the time. Hitting the Arabian Peninsula? Not so much. I don't remember that ever occurring, though I'm not encyclopedic on this issue.

Not even a Cat 1...

...a tropical system threatening the Arabian peninsula. Weird.

This is the third really weird tropical storm in the last few years. There was the one that hit the east coast of South America in 2004 ( https://courseware.e-education.psu.edu/public/meteo/upperlevel_lows.html ); the system that hit Portugal in the epic 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season; and now this one. Additionally, as I recall in 2005 one or two Atlantic systems made it to near Greenland before losing tropical characteristics.

I wonder if maybe our coverage isn't just getting better...or if we're seeing something more significant. I guess time will tell.

g

(Dump the extra g)

Middle East - a "show" of strength. Are they anywhere close to this?

Will this be the Middle East's equivalent of our Katrina, damaging oil production?

Or maybe it's just Gaia telling us to pay attention to the oil...

It's got to be hairy for anyone in or near the Gulf of Oman right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/indian/storm/storm02A.html

Link to an awesome animation that takes a while to load:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/visir/indian/visirjava02A.html

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200702A_0H.html>



So, does this qualify as "Climate Change" yet?

Btw. which are the scientifically accepted words for it and which is the RW Spin name? I forgot, is it "Climate Change" or "Global Warming?"

<http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/reliefresources/TSR/200702A_02A.htm>

He's the same guy who "re-branded" the Estate Tax as the "death tax" too.

Check it out, he talked about it very proudly in an interview for FRONTLINE's show "The Pursuaders"


(the video is available on line, if you haven't seen it yet, you need to check it out!)

Link to the video:
<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/persuaders/view/>

It encompasses the idea that the particular changes we will see are going to depend on location. It also encompasses large-scale cooling events, like Younger-dryas events, that may transpire as consequences of initial warming.

The particulars of different zones may not be consistent with warming. Frankly I don't think anyone knows for certain what is going to happen, but we know it's going to be major.

Must be all that hot air, seeking its father.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=5

Recommended.

they're all over the story about Paris Hilton going to jail.

:wow:

way to go Helliburton!!lol. From the frying pan into the fire eh? A little karma for y'all???

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates Mar 11, 2007 (AP)
Oil services giant Halliburton Co. will soon shift its corporate headquarters from Houston to the Mideast financial powerhouse of Dubai, chief executive Dave Lesar announced Sunday.

"Halliburton is opening its corporate headquarters in Dubai while maintaining a corporate office in Houston," spokeswoman Cathy Mann said in an e-mail to The Associated Press. "The chairman, president and CEO will office from and be based in Dubai to run the company from the UAE."

Lesar, speaking at an energy conference in nearby Bahrain, said he will relocate to Dubai from Texas to oversee Halliburton's intensified focus on business in the Mideast and energy-hungry Asia, home to some of the world's most important oil and gas markets.

"As the CEO, I'm responsible for the global business of Halliburton in both hemispheres and I will continue to spend quite a bit of time in an airplane as I remain attentive to our customers, shareholders and employees around the world," Lesar said. "Yes, I will spend the majority of my time in Dubai."

Lesar's announcement appears to signal one of the highest-profile moves by a U.S. corporate leader to Dubai, an Arab boomtown where free-market capitalism has been paired with some of the world's most liberal tax, investment and residency laws.
>>

Federal investigators last month alleged Halliburton was responsible for $2.7 billion of the $10 billion in contractor waste and overcharging in Iraq.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=2941931




:nopity:

I don't know if this type of data is usually available for Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes, but this one just happened to pass though this NASA satellites monitoring zone:

<http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?AERONET_Dhabi>

Click the Thumbnails on the right at the link above.

pictures
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/6725655.stm

Omani blogger
http://sleeplessinmuscat.blogspot.com/2007/06/updated-news-bulletin-part-9-sftermath.html

Local news:
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/middleeast/2007/June/middleeast_June103.xml§ion=middleeast&col=
Good article

http://gulfnews.com homepage has a video too, or here for Gonu page http://www.gulfnews.com/indepth/gonu/index.html

http://www.gulfnews.com/nation/Environment/10130433.html