45 killed in Baghdad despite crackdown

The repitition of the pattern of history is never exact. But I would say the events of the past 3-4 days qualify as a "mini-Tet offensive." It seems to me that Bush's stance vis a vie the Democrats in Congress is close to collapse here. The Bush/Congress confrontation has had elements of a poker hand. But as things collapse in Iraq, the Democratic hand gets stronger.

The possibility of Republican defections increases. Even without outright defections, the Republican legislators are more likely to accommodate a bill with compromise language, giving them something. I refer here to the possibility of language that tilts far toward the possibilty of withdrawal without a clearcut commitment to it. This could result in a veto-proof second bill, with Bush's response a moot point.

Absent an event to turn the tide, that is what I am predicting at the moment. The possibility of such an event is very small---but not yet zero. I would say the surge itself is pretty much hanging on a thread.



http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070415/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

7:40 PM, 4-15-07 (Sunday)

AP

"BAGHDAD - Cars, minibuses and roadside bombs exploded in Shiite Muslim enclaves across the city Sunday, killing at least 45 people in sectarian violence that defied the Baghdad security crackdown, while a radical anti-U.S. cleric raised a new threat to
Iraq's government.
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"Two officials close to Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr said his followers would quit their six Cabinet posts Monday — a move that could leave Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's already weak administration without enough support to stay in power.

"And in a rare gesture of dissent from America's partners in Baghdad, dozens of Iraqi policemen demonstrated in front of their station, accusing U.S. troops of treating them like "animals" and "slaves..."

"'Although we're making steady progress ... we have a long way to go,' Rear Adm. Mark Fox, a U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, told reporters Sunday. 'We will continue to face attacks from those who attempt to tear down what the Iraqi people have worked so hard to build.'"

Nobody with a working brain thinks it's going to get better by then, or even not get worse between now and then. They can kiss their cushy jobs goodbye, and good riddance, if they stall ending the war and leaving the Iraqis to fix their problems as best they can in the ruins of their country. At least they will still have the oil.

McCain, the GOP front runner until a few weeks ago, has staked his campaign on the surge. He has apparently lost his bet, but it is (I suppose) too late for him to pull out and he remains committed to that strategy (i.e., if the surge fails, he fails.) Guilliani, on the other hand, after initially backing the surge, has become silent on it for quite awhile. Hillary has not supported the surge at all, but not yet moved all her "chips" onto the table to bet against the possibility of it succeeding (though I am sure she will pull out of Iraq quickly if elected.) The whole Bush administration has committed their "political exit strategy" on a successful surge and continues to do so.

The chance of success of this strategy is small and shrinking, but not yet eliminated, in my opinion. But a dramatic, unlikely reversal would be required. However, war is funny that way. Unexpected shifts, when you look at military history, occur fairly often.

But nobody knows the future, I will give you that.

Source: Reuters

FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, April 16
16 Apr 2007 11:04:53 GMT
Source: Reuters

April 16 (Reuters) - Following are security developments in Iraq as of 1045 GMT
on Monday:

-snip-

BAGHDAD - The bodies of 30 people who had been shot were found in different
districts of Baghdad on Sunday, police said.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/KAM628011.htm