How Obama Can Win With Russian Policy

Well, it is finally about to happen. In 1-½ months, Barack Obama will be sworn in as the President. Unfortunately, he will be inheriting an economic situation that is bad, getting worse, and certain to continue to be bad for some time. I am confident that Obama will respond in an effective manner, but he still faces the problem of making positive early impressions while waiting for the positive effects of his economic program to take hold.

Fortunately, Bush’s pathetic presidential performance presents many opportunities in this regard. In this diary, I would like to highlight United States policy toward Russia over recent years and decades. Obama will have a fantastic opportunity to significantly improve our relationship with Russia. The primary structure for this initiative can be derived by simply reversing nature elements of Bush's policy.

There are four quotes below related to this subject. The first is about American policy in Central Asia. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, America has aggressively courted the governments in Central Asia, tried to exploit natural gas and petroleum resources there, tried to build bases there, and actively worked against Russian influence there. The results of 17 years of effort are almost a complete failure. We had bases at various points but we've lost most of them. Very little actual oil and gas development has occurred that has benefited US companies. And Russian influence is stronger than ever.

My number one quote below is from a prophetic piece written in 2005 predicting the unraveling of our policies there and pointing out the fundamental dangers of pretending to support democracy while actually cynically supporting repression. Ultimately, we may be fostering the development of the very terrorists that we are supposedly trying to fight.

I believe the American Central Asian initiative has been profoundly disturbing to the Russians---as they have clearly indicated many times. Starting at a point when Russia was virtually defenseless, in the 1990s, we have gone about building bases in countries on their border and close to the border. As Russia started to return to military strength in the new century, we ignore this reality and continued to press forward in Central Asia. A cursory glance at the map should have told us that we would never be able to build a strong position in this region---virtually between Russia and China and on the other side of the planet from the United States.

Quote two deals with Russian resentment over the way the US used its navy to supply rebuilding materials to Georgia after the recent conflict. Quote 3 deals with their response (which Putin promised at the time of the aggressive US action)--- their recent military mission to Venezuela.

Quote 4 relates to Austria's statement that the new US/European missile system is a provocation and should not be built. This reinforces the point I have made before to the effect that this missile system will weaken European defense by creating dissension.


Quote One


"Will US Policy Backfire in Central Asia?" The Journal of Turkish Weekly Opinion, Monday, 16 May 2005
http://www.turkishweekly.net/comments.php?id=1088

But many analysts argue that these positive initiatives have now been so overshadowed by the military agenda, where a readiness to provide air bases and other facilities is key to improving relations, that regional governments feel empowered to ignore them and continue with poor policies that threaten to alienate their populations.

“The most important thing is to maintain stability in Central Asia. And this stability is linked to the authoritarian regimes," said Alexei Malashenko, a regional expert at the Carnegie Moscow Centre. “The West has exerted pressure , but the interests of stability and economics will always prevail."

Failing to convince Central Asian leaders of the need for change could result in them acting in ways that sow the seeds for future unrest and possibly conflict in this majority Muslim region.

Lorne Craner, Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labour told IWPR that the US was well aware of the causal links between poverty, repression and militancy, "We know that while there is no justification for terrorism, repressive societies without economic development and where there is social exclusion have been breeding-grounds for terrorists. That is a simple fact. We don't want to see that continue. We want to see things advanced for both of those reasons."



Quote Two

"Medvedev Accuses West Of Provocation In Black Sea," September 06, 2008, Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, http://www.rferl.org/content/Medvedev_West_Provocation_Black_Sea/1196878.html

MOSCOW -- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has accused the West of acting provocatively in and around the Black Sea, where the United States is using warships to deliver humanitarian aid to Georgia in the throes of its military conflict with Russia.

"I wonder how they would feel if we now dispatched humanitarian assistance to the Caribbean, suffering from a hurricane, using our navy," Medvedev said, adding that a whole U.S. fleet had been dispatched to deliver the aid.

The United States has used warships to ferry relief supplies to Georgia after the brief but intense war with Russia in early August, in part to send a signal to Moscow.


Quote Three

"Tit For Tat Provocation Between US, Russia,"
By Cernig Thursday Sep 11, 2008 7:30am Crooks and Liars
http://crooksandliars.com/2008/09/12/tit-for-tat-provocation-between-us-russia/

Two Russian supersonic strategic bombers, the advance party for a deployment of Russian forces for a joint exercise, landed in Venezuela on Wednesday in a move guaranteed to infuriate all believers in America's divine right to hegemony. The Tu-160 bombers (pictured above) are reputed to be the equals of America's B-1 and with an even bigger weapons load. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said that the bombers were there for 'training purposes' and added that he planned to fly one of the aircraft himself.

The entire exercise is designed to send a "how do you like it?" message to the West, following the US and allied military presence in Georgia and the Black Sea:

Russia's Defense Ministry said the two Tu-160 bombers flew to Venezuela on a training mission. It said in a statement carried by the Russian news wires that the planes will conduct training flights over neutral waters over the next few days before heading back to Russia. Also Wednesday, NATO said it ended a routine exercise by four naval ships in the Black Sea. Russia had denounced the exercise as part of a Western military buildup sparked by the Georgia conflict. ... Earlier this week, Russia said it will send a naval squadron and long-range patrol planes to Venezuela in November for a joint military exercise in the Caribbean.

Let's not forget, too, that US advisers were in Georgia when it launched its full military might into its own breakaway province of South Ossetia and that neoconservative advisers to the administration and the McCain campaign have called for turning states along Russia's borders into US-armed "porcupines". To imagine how Russia sees its own national interest threatened, imagine if Cuba, Venezuela and other nations around America's Caribbean "pond" became Russian-armed permanent bastions in America's backyard. There's a lot of other tit-for-tat going on right now too. Not only has Russia said it will send a fleet to Venezuela - something that will tax Russian naval readiness to the utmost - but it has called for an embargo on arms imports to Georgia at the UN. That one won't get out of the Security Council because the US will veto it but it is another purely political maneuver, making a statement about involvement in Russia's backyard. There's a new combative style of rhetoric at the UN too, which again points to a breakdown in the post-perestroika monopolar world the neocons foolishly believed would last forever.



Quote Four

"Austria says U.S. missile shield a 'provocation'," Aug. 23, 2007, MSNBC, World News Europe
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20404050/

VIENNA, Austria - Austria’s defense minister said a planned U.S. missile shield defense system in Eastern Europe was a “provocation,” and called on Washington to abandon the project, according to a news report published Thursday.

Norbert Darabos told Die Presse that U.S. officials should instead seek a compromise with those who oppose the system, including Russia and some in Europe.

“I regard it as a provocation,” Darabos said in the interview, excerpts of which were released late Wednesday. He reportedly accused Washington of “unnecessarily reviving old Cold War debates.”

For more, see my blog Potpourri at http://random-potpourri.blogspot.com/