Azeris Rally on Aliyev Rumors

BAKU, Azerbaijan -- Thousands of opposition party supporters rallied in Baku on Saturday to demand a free and fair presidential vote as rumors swirled that Azeri President Heidar Aliyev was dead and his son may be tapped to succeed him.

Azeri officials denied that Aliyev, 80, had died in the Gulhane military hospital in Turkey, where he has been receiving medical treatment since early July.

A report of his death was carried by opposition newspapers Saturday after appearing first on a Turkish web site.

Despite official reassurances, diplomats and residents in Baku said concern was growing about Aliyev's health, which has been fragile for years, and suggestions that his son Ilham would be installed in his place.

Waving flags and chanting "Freedom!" and "Down with the president!", about 4,000 supporters of four opposition parties on Saturday demanded a democratic election to choose a new president.

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Nevertheless, many Azeris, Western governments and oil firms are wary about any leadership transition, not least because of Azerbaijan's large reserves of crude oil.

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http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/08/04/011.html

around the bedside.

The usual bipartisan support:

In an emergency session, the 125-seat national assembly
Monday voted heavily in favor of designating Ilham Aliyev the
country's new head of government. He received 101 votes.
One lawmaker abstained and the opposition party
representatives boycotted the session.

VOA

Azerbaijan: Ilham Aliev - Next in Line?
President Heidar Aliev has lined his son up to take over from him, but opinions differ widely as to whether he is up to the job.
By Shahin Rzayev in Baku (CRS No. 190, 07-Aug-03)

Forty-one-year-old Ilham Aliev stands a very good chance of becoming the next president of Azerbaijan within the next few months, as the health of his father Heidar Aliev worsens and a presidential election scheduled for October 15 draw near.

On August 4, Ilham was made prime minister of Azerbaijan, making him first in line in the succession if his father steps down or dies. Both father and son have registered to stand in the election.

Acquaintances are full of praise for Aliev junior's charm and intelligence. Yet he is as yet completely untested by big-time politics. And one incident, just a few minutes after he was formally appointed prime minister by the Azerbaijani parliament, underlined that he lacks his father's political instincts and could face a baptism of fire.

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Ilham's upbringing was very privileged and more Russian- than Azeri-speaking. His wife Mehriban comes from Baku. This alienates him from many of the Nakhichevanis.

Also, when he has made attempts at political interventions, they have often ended in failure - underlining painfully the contrast with Heidar Aliev, a consummate politician who far outclasses most of his peers in the former Soviet Union, and who has won just about every major political battle in his career.

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http://www.iwpr.net/index.pl?archive/cau/cau_200308_190_2_eng.txt

Not too familiar with Azeri politics, but I would guess that his possible ascendence ties in to two major situations--the desire for Western imperialism to establish the Caspian/Turkey pipes and making sure that Russia & Iran get screwed over, and then the apparently crumbling cease-fire in Karabagh. A weak leader would "help" the former move along, for he would be easily manipulated by business interests of international capital, though in the latter the Generals and the many thousands of refugees could have more influence over the chance of another war to retake the lands invaded in the early 90s.