SHANGHAI - When Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China, who really got what? Who were and are the winners in the short term and the long run? Russia got a chunk of territory and China's endorsement of Moscow's World Trade Organization (WTO) entry; China did not get a coveted pipeline but there were a spate of mutually beneficial economic accords. Still, China takes the long view and figures that it will come out on top. It may take 20 years, strategic analysts calculate, but China sees itself the winner.
Putin paid his third state visit to China last week, marking the 55th anniversary of the establishment of Sino-Russian (then Sino-Soviet) diplomatic relations. Putin got what Russia wanted from China: approval of a powerful state for Russia's accession to the WTO. Russia and China also resolved their long-standing dispute over their 4,300-kilometer-long borders, somewhat in Russia's favor. More than 10 (primarily economic) agreements were signed, but not the big prize - the route of an oil pipeline. China seeks a branch from Russia's far east to China's northeast region. Putin said directly that this should be considered from Russia's interests. In other words, China didn't get what it wants to get from Putin's visit, and was disappointed. The outcome, however, is linked by Chinese analysts, and others, to the fact that China is a rising power while Russia is the declining empire. Japan, meanwhile, is also in the running for the pipeline and has offered huge financial incentives to Moscow.
More generally, people in China have all kinds of misunderstandings and questions over Sino-Russian relations, and are unwilling to agree with Putin that Sino-Russian relations are enjoying the best period in their history. They consider that there is a phenomenon of "upper hot while lower cold" - politics hot while economy cold - and naturally there is distrust between the two. The An-Da (Angarsk to Daqing) oil line has not been resolved and its possible death - though not actually confirmed - was especially damaging to China's perception of Russia.
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Russia is yesterday's superpower, the US is today's only superpower and China will be tomorrow's world power. This is the key to understanding the new strategic triangle involving China, the US and Russia. In other words, the United States has had more space to develop in order to reach the peace bonus since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Right now China is keeping a low profile but preparing to do what it wants to do and what is in its own best interest. The decline of Russia is not over yet. This will influence the dynamics of the China-US-Russia strategic triangle.
Asia times