Welcome to capitalism, North Korean comrades

EOUL - A creeping revolution, both social and economic, is under way in North Korea and it seems there's no turning back. For decades, the country served as the closest possible approximation of an ideal Stalinist state. But the changes in its economy that have taken place after 1990 have transformed the country completely and, perhaps, irreversibly.

For decades, Pyongyang propaganda presented North Korea as an embodiment of economic self-sufficiency, completely independent from any other country. This image sold well, especially in the more credulous part of the Third World and among the ever-credulous leftist academics. The secret of its supposed self-sufficiency was simple: the country received large amounts of direct and indirect aid from the Soviet Union and China, but never admitted this in public. Though frequently annoyed by such "ingratitude", neither Moscow nor Beijing made much noise since both communist giants wanted to maintain, at least superficially, friendly relations with their small, capricious ally.

But collapse of the Soviet Union made clear that claims of self-sufficiency were unfounded. From 1991, the North Korean economy went into free fall. Throughout 1991-99, the gross national product (GNP) of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) nearly halved. The situation became unbearable in 1996, when the country was struck by a famine that took, by the best available estimates, about 600,000 lives. The famine could have been prevented by a Chinese-style agricultural reform, but this option was politically impossible: such a reform would undermine the government's ability to control the populace.

The control on daily lives was lost anyway. What we have seen in North Korea over the past 10 years can be best described as collapse of what used to be rigid Stalinism from below. In the Soviet Union of the late 1950s and in China of the late 1970s, Stalinism-Maoism was dismantled from above, through a chain of deliberate reforms planned and implemented by the government. In North Korea the same thing happened, but the system disintegrated from below, despite weak and ineffectual attempts to keep it intact.

Asia Times

What caused the famine is an overreliance on artificial pesticides and other practices that led to the deterioration of already-poor soil quality. Now they are correctly moving from rice to potato as a staple, which is more suitable for their climate.

N. Korea need not invite foreign control of its economy in order to overcome the crisis. They need smarter policies on how to direct the resources they do have. They would be wise to utilize their scientific sector to make software and IT industry breakthroughs. They are poor, but they are educated.

But insofar as it portrays a state on the verge of collapse, it runs in line with one of the current neocon propaganda themes.

NK has a large, powerful military, which can probably be relied on if NK is attacked (and possibly only if -- although this is reaching quite a bit). The performance of this military against US forces in the Korean War was rather good, and the NK army came awfully damn close to completely driving US forces from the peninsula, being stopped only by a heroic and skilled defense of the perimeter at Pusan. (I should not neglect to mention the value of the delaying tactics used to slow the NK army from reaching that perimeter. -- Brave men died in this effort.) The North Korean army was defeated by a bold and visionary attack on their supply lines. (Which does not make up for Mac's stupidity in invading North Korea -- specifically to that far north.)

I have read that the North Korean army was able to "press" South Koreans into their ranks in the invasion of the South and use these "recruits" effectively. If this is true, it would be evidence of considerable practical skill in both the ranks and leadership.

The North Koreans are no one to mess with lightly, regardless of anything that one hears in the media.

I enjoyed it. My only criticism is that it omits the effects of natural diasters, energy shortages, and the American inspired embargo.

With respect to the North Korean armed forces, they were not that effective during the Korean conflict. US occupation forces were disorganized and lazy. When a disciplined force was brought against the N. Korean forces they collapsed, necessitating the Chinese intervention.

My impression is that N.Korean armed forces today are not capable of a sustained invasion of the south due to antiquated equipment, lack of spare parts, and lack of fuel. The ability of the north to create and defend a logistics trail is questionable.

However, as pointed out in a recent Asian analysis, the nature of warfare has changed and antiquated forces can defeat a superior enemy if the national will and right circumstances are present. Social deterioration in N.Korea is so advanced that the political will to save the regime probably doesn't exist if it were directly attacked.

However, the Chinese would defend their sphere of influence north of the DMZ in the event of American/Japanese assault unless offered a timetable for the return of Taiwan.

I was just pleased to find some English discussion of the situation
in N. Korea that was above the level of State Dept. blathering.

I got new insights from it. I suspect that he probably addresses the other matters elsewhere in his work.