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AlexanderProgressive Donating Member (238 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-17-09 10:02 PM
Original message
GAO Ties U.S. Guns to Mexico Violence
Source: Wall Street Journal

The study says that despite claims from critics that Mexican cartels may also be getting weapons from Asia and elsewhere, law-enforcement officials believe that scenario is unlikely. Law-enforcement officials, cited in the study, said they saw no reason why drug cartels would go through the difficulty of importing guns long distances "when it is so easy for them to do so from the United States."

Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124528641705825899.html



The wingnuts lose yet another debate.
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Xipe Totec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-17-09 10:03 PM
Response to Original message
1. Guns don't kill people
Wingnuts kill people....

And wingnuts know no borders...

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rabs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-17-09 11:13 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. Hey Asturias, went to Juarez three weeks ago


Crossing the bridge from El Paso to Juarez, there were about five open "Nada que Declarar" lanes on the Mexican side. Was amazed because there were no searches of any of the hundreds of vehicles ahead of us crossing into Mexico. Had we been gun-runners, it would have been so easy.

First thing I noted were the heavily-armed soldiers just a few meters past the lanes. Driving around the city, spotted lots of two- and three-vehicle convoys of army troops, federales and local cops patrolling the streets. Each of the open trucks and pickups had a machine-gun mounted on the roof, and several troops armed with automatic weapons sitting the back. We saw some troops wearing SWAT-style gorros over their faces.

An interesting detail about the army troops; they are brought in from southern Mexico on the theory that the soldiers have no family in Juarez and therefore the cartels cannot take reprisals.

Juarez is under martial law, and one of the results is that take-out sales of liquor is banned after 9 p.m. every night. Four cops were killed the weekend we were there. Was told the cartels "buy" their cops, and then the rival cartel's cops kill them off.

Speaking to locals, they were happy to have the troops. The locals said violence had gone down dramatically since the army arrived in November of last year. They said that if the cartels want to kill each other off, so much the better. It is when innocent people are caught in the crossfire that pisses them off.

Oh, antepasados desde Burgos, hace muchoooo tiempo. :hi:


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rl6214 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-15-09 03:41 AM
Response to Reply #6
65. The local news here in El Paso
Now has the Mexican officials are going to ask the UN for help with the ongoing violence. Just this weekend a Juarez store owner had his store burned to the ground for refusing to give in to the cartels demands for payments.
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BeerGuy Donating Member (1 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-17-09 10:32 PM
Response to Original message
2. Need more facts
Edited on Wed Jun-17-09 10:33 PM by BeerGuy
Why use U.S. made semi-automatic weapons when you can use your drug money to buy fully automatic weapons from China, Cuba, or any other nation looking to profit from the weapons trade?

How many guns are stolen per year in the U.S.?

How many of the 6200 drug related murders were perpetrated with a firearm? Did the percentage of firearm related murders increase in Mexico by a proportionate amount?

I'm usually pretty leary of articles with logic gaps.........

Paint a better, more detailed picture for me, rather than throwing facts together in a few paragraphs and hoping I jump to your conclusion.
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Euromutt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 05:31 AM
Response to Reply #2
11. Let's see what the report itself says, rather than the WSJ says it says
A new study by the Government Accountability Office says most firearms recovered in drug violence in Mexico come from the U.S., <...>
Recovered? Or recovered, handed over to the ATF and successfully traced, discounting ones not handed over or that could not be traced? Because that's how the "90% canard" came about.
The study acknowledges the data gap. In 2008, of the almost 30,000 weapons seized by Mexican law enforcement, only 7,200 were submitted to the bureau for tracing, the study said.
So it is the 90% canard repackaged.
GAO investigators cited multiple problems in trying to collect enough data to complete a comprehensive study of arms trafficking from the U.S.
O-kay...
The study also cited bureaucratic problems in Mexico that reduced the number of weapons submitted to the U.S. for tracing.
Such as? The "bureaucratic problem" that Mexican state police personnel have been found to be in the cartels' pockets? And might quite readily have flogged off some of their shiny Colts, FNH-USAs and Bushmasters to those same cartels?
Despite the incomplete data, GAO investigators conclude that the U.S., and in particular the Southwest border states of Texas, California and Arizona, are the source of most weapons trafficked into Mexico.
California? California? California is a source of "assault weapons" for the cartels?

If the incomplete data weren't enough by itself weren't reason enough to file this report in the recycling bin, that finding clinches it.

Somebody got paid to write this crap?
Law-enforcement officials, cited in the study, said they saw no reason why drug cartels would go through the difficulty of importing guns long distances "when it is so easy for them to do so from the United States."
That's called an "argument from incredulity," and it's a logical fallacy.

Look, we know the cartels aren't getting their automatic weapons, grenades and RPGs from the American private market, because there hardly is one for those things. But they're getting them, so they're getting them from somewhere else, be it stuff left over from the Cold War in Central America, or new production stuff from China or eastern Europe. Since that conduit exists, why wouldn't less spectacular hardware come in via the same route?

I mean, obviously, if any semi-auto-only "assault weapons" show up in Mexico, then yes, those will be from the US, because nobody else will touch a semi-auto-only Kalashnikov. But handguns? Shotguns? Why should those only come from the US? Note, moreover, that 10% of the guns the ATF was able to trace didn't come through the US. Therefore, other conduits exist.
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Fire_Medic_Dave Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-17-09 10:57 PM
Response to Original message
3. That's some funny shit. I didn't know the WSJ wrote that much humor.
They'll probably claim those RPG's and automatic weapons are coming from gun shows. That would be a hysterical follow up story.

David
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NickB79 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-17-09 11:02 PM
Response to Original message
4. Where are they getting the rocket launchers and grenades from?
And if someone tells me those are coming from a US gun shop too, they better have an address to go with it, because I'm going on a road trip :evilgrin:
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Fire_Medic_Dave Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-17-09 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. At the neo nazi gun show booth where you have to know the secret handshake to get the good stuff.
The accusation goes something like that.

David
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dairydog91 Donating Member (520 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #8
64. Shhh, don't tell them about the handshake!
I'm still waiting for that guy to come through on the 88mm flak gun I ordered!
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rl6214 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-15-09 03:45 AM
Response to Reply #8
66. The stuff sure isn't coming from the shows here in El Paso
The shows here pretty much suck. $1500 for your basic run of the mill AR15, same for a well used AK clone. Little or no ammo. Maybe half a dozen sks's at the last show I went to a couple of months ago.
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AlexanderProgressive Donating Member (238 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 08:24 AM
Response to Reply #4
13. How many rocket launchers have they used, as far as you know?
?
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Tejas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 05:28 PM
Response to Reply #13
28. not that you'll believe Mexico.gov evidence, see post 27
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AlphaCentauri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-17-09 11:13 PM
Response to Original message
5. It's probably about guns Made in the US
not about guns crossing the southern border
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friendly_iconoclast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-17-09 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. Ah, *there's* the pill in the jam
Edited on Thu Jun-18-09 12:05 AM by friendly_iconoclast
From the article:

The study acknowledges the data gap. In 2008, of the almost 30,000 weapons seized by Mexican law enforcement, only 7,200 were submitted to the bureau for tracing, the study said. The number of weapons submitted would be higher were it not for bureaucratic problems, U.S. and Mexican officials said, according to the study. Officials told investigators they expect to fix those problems to allow more complete data to be gathered.

GAO investigators cited multiple problems in trying to collect enough data to complete a comprehensive study of arms trafficking from the U.S. The investigators faulted the lack of a coherent anti-arms-trafficking strategy, as well as turf battles among agencies charged with enforcing laws and government policy on the issue.

The study also cited bureaucratic problems in Mexico that reduced the number of weapons submitted to the U.S. for tracing. In addition, congressional restrictions limit the amount of data the bureau can collect and publicly release about gun sales....


Inquiring minds want to know:

How many of the circa 75% of guns not submitted for tracing were sold by US manufacturers to the Mexican Government and somehow ended up 'falling off a truck', or not of US origin at all?
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AlphaCentauri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 10:52 AM
Response to Reply #9
18. US made guns can go to Colombia and end in Mexico
normal drug deals
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AtheistCrusader Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-15-09 11:51 AM
Response to Reply #18
67. hey can also be legally exported to the mexican government, and end in the hands of the cartels.
Many of the select-fire weapons found in Mexico, that were made in the US, have NEVER been legal for sale to the civilian population. For instance, you see a photo of seized weapons, and you spot an M4 that is capable of fully-automatic or burst fire? You see a weapon that was sold by the manufacturer to either a military or law enforcement entity, which turned around and one way or another, proliferated that weapon on to the drug dealers.

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Irreverend IX Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-17-09 11:19 PM
Response to Original message
7. Mexico's southern border is even more porous than the north...
And the US dumped plenty of full-auto weapons in Central America during the Cold War. Any rocket launchers, grenades and full-auto M16s turning up in Mexico are far more likely to be Contra party favors from Uncle Sam than to have any history in the US civilian market.
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Euromutt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #7
29. The US didn't supply too many M16s to the Contras
The weapons the CIA supplied to the Contras were generally FALs (possibly Imbels) and Chinese-made AKs. The CIA bought several metric assloads of weapons from China during the 1980s, all copies of Sov weapons (AKMs, DShK 12.7mm HMGs, KPV 14.5mm HMGs, RPG-7s), and supplied them to the Afghan mujehaddin and the Contras, allowing them to scavenge ammo and spare parts from their Sov-equipped opponents.

Of course, that leaves sizable amounts of other weapons supplied to the governments of El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala: German G3s, Israeli Galils, probably M16s for their "special forces"...
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ManiacJoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 12:25 AM
Response to Original message
10. Since the US government sells m16's to Mexico,
and since many of these m16's "disappear" from the Mexican army and police inventories, it is not surprising that many "US guns" are tied to Mexico's violence. Of course, full-auto AK47's are dirt cheap and readily available from Mexico's neighbors to the south and from overseas.

And, yes, some semi-auto rifles do get illegally smuggled into Mexico from the US civilian market.
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benEzra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 08:09 AM
Response to Original message
12. Except a whole lot of those U.S. guns are only available to governments and law enforcement.

Most of the stuff in that photo is police/military restricted hardware, U.S. made but NOT available on the U.S. civilian market. It IS available to the Mexican military, and guess where most of the Zetas come from...




More police/military restricted stuff.




Some of the "guns" in that photo look like Airsoft BB guns (if so, demonstrating media gullibility), but if they are real, they aren't U.S. civilian guns, as those are not NFA Title 1 length uppers.
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davepc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 10:58 AM
Response to Reply #12
21. Thats a lot of AR platform stuff...
I'm sure the short barrel M4's and the SAW came right off the shelf from a civilian dealer. heh.
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benEzra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 01:05 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. Yep. And the frag grenades and M203 rounds....
came from the Grenades & Artillery Shells table at a Houston gun show, which is usually right between the tank table and the Katyusha rocket table.
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gorfle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 09:33 AM
Response to Original message
14. Really?
Law-enforcement officials, cited in the study, said they saw no reason why drug cartels would go through the difficulty of importing guns long distances "when it is so easy for them to do so from the United States."

They import guns from Asia for the same reason Walmart imports clothing from Asia - cost.

Why buy a $400 civilian version of an AK-47 from the United States, plus pay smuggling costs on top of that, when you can import a $50 military, fully-automatic version of it from virtually anywhere else in the world?

These drug cartels are multi-billion dollar international businesses. They are going to buy whatever they want from wherever they want.
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 09:35 AM
Response to Original message
15. No matter how many times this story gets repeated it's still horse shit
:nuke:
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Deadric Damodred Donating Member (365 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 10:36 AM
Response to Original message
16. I don't believe that for one second.
Edited on Thu Jun-18-09 11:08 AM by Deadric Damodred
And even if it was true............SO WHAT? The founding fathers didn't make the 2nd Amendment so that it's freedoms for Americans could be watered down because another country is bitching about it. Just as illegals coming over here from Mexico is our problem, any illegal guns going over there from here is their problem. We aren't going to go banning certain classes of guns over here for the benefit of Mexcio or any other country. Fuck'em. If they have a problem with it, they should secure the border better and help both our situations.
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Tim01 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #16
22. That sums it up.
They won't help us with securing the border, and they are bitching that we are not securing the border.

AND the idea that they are buying military arms at our gun shops is just made up bullshit.
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virginia mountainman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 10:49 AM
Response to Original message
17. I want to know just WHEN..
Crime, in another nation, became a reason, for RESTRICTING CIVIL RIGHTS HERE??

So much bullshit, so little time....
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Deadric Damodred Donating Member (365 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 10:55 AM
Response to Reply #17
20. The antis will use anything they can latch on to.
If they get called on their "it will lower crime arguement", then they'll say we need to do more restrictions because of suicides. If they get called on their "it will lower suicides arguement", then they'll say we need to do more restrictions for the benefit of Mexico. The Brady's probably hold "think shit up sessions" where every participant trys to come up with another bullshit reason to restrict guns and ban "assault weapons".
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jody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 07:12 PM
Response to Reply #20
39. "use anything they can latch on to" and make up lies when all else fails. Not to worry, Obama has
promised "I believe in the Second Amendment. I believe in people's lawful right to bear arms. I will not take your shotgun away. I will not take your rifle away. I won't take your handgun away."

Of course Obama knows the AWB is a gun-grabber scheme to ban all semiautomatic firearms and he will veto any ban that renews AWB.

His support for AWB is just clever political double-speak to avoid offending those who fear firearms, perhaps a few tens of thousands.

Obama is too smart to offend 84 million gun-owners and another 84 million friends of gun-owners who do not own firearms but identify with gun-owners.

That means perhaps 168 million potential voters support RKBA out of our electorate of 215 million who would be fighting mad and take their revenge at the ballot box.

If Obama signs any bill that bans firearms or ammunition, then his promise has the value of a well-used piece of toilet paper.
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krispos42 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 10:55 AM
Response to Original message
19. Wall Street Journal is reich-wing and Murdoch-owned
There is nothing the reich-wing would love more than to have Democrats pass some new version of the Assault Weapon Ban. They know that historically the party that has re-taken the White House in an election loses seats in the Senate and House in the next mid-term.





From the July 2009 issue of "Guns & Ammo"...

<snip>

The last thing the Mexican government has time or money to do is keep records, and if they did have serial numbers, why isn't Holder prosecuting shill buyers?

From the garbled info we've been getting, the Mexican government sent up serial number for about 10 percent of captured guns - the ones they had suspected had started in the US. Of those, about half were able to be traced, and of these about 90% did start out as US commercial sales. So that means that 40 percent of about 10 percent, or about four percent of the total started out here.

<more>
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AlexanderProgressive Donating Member (238 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 02:25 PM
Response to Reply #19
25. The complete report is out
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Tejas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. hahahahahaha, you mean the one where
the GAO cites the source here in the US for those RPG's and full-auto AK-47's?


Gosh, I can't seem to find that info in there, care to quote?
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Raskolnik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 12:54 PM
Response to Original message
23. Doesn't the answer to this lie in tightening the border, which Mexico opposes?
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Tejas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-18-09 05:25 PM
Response to Original message
27. Let's see GAO "tie" these to a Walmart in Houston
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Tim01 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #27
37. Uh oh. I better go check on my stuff in the shed. nt
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MichaelHarris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 03:03 AM
Response to Original message
30. hmmm
The Government Accountability Office information that 87 percent of seized guns given to US authorities by Mexican officials come from the US shouldn't come as a surprise, says Bill Vizzard, a criminologist at the California State University in Sacramento. "We're the largest legal gun market in the world." http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0619/p02s05-usgn.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Loophole-laden laws in the United States are hampering efforts to stop the gun smuggling that fuels Mexico's drug-related violence, according to a congressional report released on Thursday. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/18/AR2009061803358.html

The weaponry in many instances came from guns shops and gun shows in southwest border states such as Texas, Arizona, California and New Mexico, according to the report by the Government Accountability Office.http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6487515.html

Sounds like American guns to me.
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Euromutt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 04:47 AM
Response to Reply #30
31. You're not paying attention, are you?
Edited on Fri Jun-19-09 05:45 AM by Euromutt
Fine, "87 percent of seized guns given to US authorities by Mexican officials come from the US." Actually, no, that's wrong. It should read: "87 percent of seized guns given to US authorities by Mexican officials and which the ATF was able to trace come from the US." That excludes guns that the ATF wasn't able to trace (ergo, most likely not guns legally sold in the US), and an even greater number of guns that the Mexican authorities didn't even submit to the ATF.

Let's just look at the numbers for 2008, since the report doesn't give absolute numbers for all four years (and why not?). The Mexicans recovered 30,000 guns; of these, they submitted 7,200 (24%) to the ATF for tracing; of those, the ATF traced 6,700 to US sources. So what has actually been proven is that ~22.3% of guns recovered in 2008 came from US sources. Not "90%" or even "87%"; 22.3%. And that's despite the supposed increase of trafficking.

Which is precisely the point that every pro-RKBAer has been making since the "90% canard" entered circulation. And now this report just repeats it. No new information, no added value, complete waste of time and money.
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Tejas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 06:15 AM
Response to Reply #31
32. Ever see a journalist that did?
Well, maybe a few but Brady Jr there sure isn't one of them. Remember, hype sells.
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MichaelHarris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #32
34. I answered
your dumbass post below. You continue with non-factual jibes, no substance, just a parrot.
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MichaelHarris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #31
33. why is it
when one agency makes a report you guys like (3% rifle crimes from the FBI/DOJ) and when a report comes out from a different agency (this one)that you don't like you have the ability to call it bullshit? I think it's wonderful you have the ability to wander through life with the ability to only take what you like and wear blinders to the rest. If you think this report is wrong then why can't the 3% report be flawed? It's like how you guys cheer the "good shooting" stories and fight the actual gun violence stories. I guess ignorance really is bliss when it comes to guns.

If that report "should read" maybe you need to seek a job at the GAO.
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X_Digger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. Because we can actually evaluate..
.. the claims made, research the sources, examine the methodology, compare against other sources- rather than regurgitate a fluff piece as fact yet back away from it when challenged.
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MichaelHarris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 04:05 PM
Response to Reply #35
47. so
basically you only believe what you want.
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X_Digger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #47
51. *sigh*
If that's what you took out of my statement, I can understand why you've made the statements you have.

Just because something is posted in a newspaper doesn't make it necessarily true. I believe things that I can validate, research, verify, and corroborate.
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PavePusher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 12:32 PM
Response to Reply #47
62. So
basically, you can't do simple math.
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eqfan592 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 01:22 PM
Response to Reply #47
63. Wow, seriously?
Evaluation of claims made is the most basic human process. You should be more than capable of it.

Honestly, it sounds like you're projecting to me. You're incapable of being rational on the issue, and thus just want to believe anything that supports your cause. But you can't stand people punching holes in your "evidence." Especially when you are incapable of doing the same to ours.

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Tejas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #33
36. MichaelHarris, your mission, should you decide to accept it,
is to someday quit comparing apples and oranges.

The GAO link concerns some BS fantasy about buying thousands of full-auto-photon-torpedoes at Gander Mountain and smuggling them to Mexico.
On the other hand, the DOJ link commonly referred to contains info concerning what weapons are used in what types of crimes in the US.

But you knew that.


"If that report "should read" maybe you need to seek a job at the GAO."

You would truly be a godsend to Helmke.

:rofl:
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MichaelHarris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 04:06 PM
Response to Reply #36
48. want a cracker
parrot?
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Tim01 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 06:20 PM
Response to Reply #33
38. Seriously. We've already explained this stuff over and over. nt
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MichaelHarris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 04:06 PM
Response to Reply #38
49. so
basically you only believe what you want to?
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Euromutt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 07:42 PM
Response to Reply #33
40. There's a difference between data, and interpretation of data
It may have escaped you, but I'm not rubbishing the data in the GAO report; I'm rubbishing the conclusions the report makes based on those data, or more precisely, with blithe disregard for those data.

The notion that 87% of the firearms recovered from Mexican narcotraficantes came from US sources is simply unsupported, for the reasons I've explained: the majority of guns recovered by the Mexican authorities haven't been submitted for tracing, and the ATF was unable to trace a percentage of the guns submitted to it, which practically by definition means that these guns did not come from legal US sources (unless they're over forty years old and predate the Gun Control Act of 1968). I have cited only numbers from the report itself to support this argument.

But the report makes policy recommendations based on the assumption that the percentage of firearms used by the cartels that comes from US sources is in the neighborhood of 90%, an assumption that is demonstrably false. The report even acknowledges that it is false, but glosses over that. And that is why the report's garbage: there's nothing wrong with the numbers, it's that the report falsely claims the numbers don't mean what they say.
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MichaelHarris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #40
50. so
in reality you just believe what you want to.
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X_Digger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 04:16 PM
Response to Reply #50
52. Saying something three times doesn't make it true..
"There's no place like home."
"There's no place like home."
"There's no place like home."

Damn, still not in Kansas.

If you can't actually participate in a discussion on the merits, falling back on repetition is one approach.
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MichaelHarris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #52
53. evidently
even when the GAO says it, it isn't true. The only true is what the NRA allows.
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X_Digger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 05:01 PM
Response to Reply #53
54. So because the GAO says it, it must be true?

Care to actually comment on the ACTUAL TEXT IN THE GAO REPORT?

While it is impossible to know how many firearms are illegally trafficked into Mexico in a given year, over 20,000, or around 87 percent, of firearms seized by Mexican authorities and traced over the past 5 years originated in the United States, according to data from ATF (see fig. 2). Over 90 percent of the firearms seized in Mexico and traced over the last 3 years have come from the United States.


I've stepped over puddles deeper than your responses in this forum.

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MichaelHarris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #54
55. Because
the FBI and Justice department says 3% it must be true?
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X_Digger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 09:24 PM
Response to Reply #55
56. Because..
Because you can actually _LOOK_ at the numbers, at a state level, and freaking _see_ the data collection. You can check out the AG stats for _each state_ if you so wish.

The GAO hasn't provided a source for their numbers, and they haven't even attempted to provide _complete_ numbers (like how many are seized vs how many are submitted for tracing, etc.)

Christ-a-mighty, you're about as dense as a box of rocks.
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Euromutt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-22-09 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #55
59. I'm not disputing the numbers
I'm perfectly happy to believe that ~90% of the firearms submitted by the Mexican Attorney-General's office to the ATF, and which the ATF was able to trace, came from U.S. sources. I'm not disputing that.

The issue is that we know (because it says so in the GAO report) that the guns that meet that description are a fraction--less than a quarter--of the total number of guns the Mexican authorities say they've recovered from cartel goons, and we don't know how many of the remainder are from U.S. sources.
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Euromutt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #53
57. Dude, you need a course in critical thinking
It doesn't matter who the person or organization making a claim is if the claim isn't supported by the available evidence. If the ghost of Alan Turing himself were to appear to you and tell you that 2+2=5, it doesn't matter that it's Turing telling you, it's still not true.

And actually, much of what you're repeating wasn't even said by the GAO; it was said by the , the WaPo and the Houston Chronicle.

I'll go over this again, and I'll refer to the actual report (http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09709.pdf):
In 2008, of the almost 30,000 firearms that the Mexican Attorney General’s office said were seized, only around 7,200, or approximately a quarter, were submitted to ATF for tracing. (page 16)
The estimated number of guns traced to US sources, according to Figure 3 on page 15, was ~6,700. That means that the guns traced to U.S. sources formed 93% of guns submitted to the ATF, but only 21% of firearms reportedly seized by the Mexican authorities.

Now, GAO implicitly assumes that the guns submitted to the ATF are a representative sample of the total guns captured, but there's really no reason to assume that. For starters, it strikes me that the Mexicans would be likely to give priority in submitting serial numbers to guns that probably did come from or through the U.S. After all, why waste time tracing guns that'll most likely come up blank?
U.S. assistance has been limited due to the incomplete use to date of eTrace by Mexican government officials. <...> <The> data inputted into eTrace currently serves as the best data we found available for analyzing the source and nature of the firearms that are being trafficked and seized in Mexico. However, because Mexican government officials have only entered a portion of the information on firearms seized, the eTrace data only represents data from these gun trace requests, not from all the guns seized. (pages 47-48)
The report goes on to list a number of problems encountered in permitting the Mexican A-G's office in effectively using eTrace.

In a nutshell, the report makes claims that cannot be substantiated by the available data; the conclusions require making a lot of very large assumptions.
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aikoaiko Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 09:12 PM
Response to Reply #33
42. Just a helpful correct ion MH. The 3% stat describe homocides by rifle not crimes in general.
Edited on Fri Jun-19-09 09:13 PM by aikoaiko
I know how you don't like to distort what others have said and appreciate the correction.

I would be surprised to here, however, the more the 3% of all violent cimes happen with rifles.
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Euromutt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 09:38 PM
Response to Reply #42
58. Rifles are used in less than 1% of nonfatal violent crimes
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AtheistCrusader Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-15-09 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #33
73. You're confused.
I think you are thinking of the .3% of firearms acquired by criminals at Gun shows, which of course, is potentially spurious because the DOJ study assumes a few things:

Honest reply by the incarcerated.
That the incarcerated are a valid cross-section of criminals. Which ignores the possibility of 'really successful' criminals that simply aren't caught, that may obtain more of their firearms from gun shows.
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PavePusher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 12:31 PM
Response to Reply #30
61. Repetition isn't helping. Maybe you should be shrieking louder? n/t
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aikoaiko Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 09:09 PM
Response to Original message
41. I look forward to see more complete data sets and not speculation fromt he GAO
And maybe its just the way the WSJ reports this issue, but it lacks facts very much. I look forward to answering some of my questions by getting the actual report.

The GAO admits that the Mexican govt seized 30000 weapons.

The GAO admit that only 7200 were sent to the US for tracing and 87% (or 6300) indeed started their lives as legal weapons in the US.

That's only 21% of total weapons seized being confirmed from the pools of US regulated guns. Were there other rifles that could have been sent back and were likely US origin weapons? So they say, but where is the proof. A research organization needs to do a little more footwork before speculating.

The GAO theorizes that the percentage must be higher because its so easy to smuggle across the border. I have news for the GAO, there is a lot of coast line in Mexico and not much of a Mexican coast guard. Furthermore, many of the weapons that are seen on the news are fully auto rifles and pistols, hand grenades, and RPGs. These weapons are NOT easily available to the civilian market in the US.

It seems as if the GAO has its fair share of fear mongering anti-gun types running amuck.
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aikoaiko Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 09:36 PM
Response to Original message
43. Here is a link the actual GAO report.
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09781t.pdf

Its only 10 pages, but its late and I'm too tired to read and comment on it now. But maybe someone else can dive into it.

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X_Digger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-19-09 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #43
44. More twists than a pretzel..

While it is impossible to know how many firearms are illegally trafficked into Mexico in a given year, over 20,000, or around 87 percent, of firearms seized by Mexican authorities and traced over the past 5 years originated in the United States, according to data from ATF (see fig. 2). Over 90 percent of the firearms seized in Mexico and traced over the last 3 years have come from the United States.


If you didn't read that carefully you'd come to the conclusion that 90% of the guns seized in Mexico in the last 3 years come from the US, when it's 90% of the guns seized and traced by the US BATFE come from the US. 20,000 guns in 5 years were traced to the US. Other sources (MX consulate report, IIRC) put the number seized in 2008 at 30,000. Assuming that's steady, that's 150,000 guns seized in total over the last 5 years, 20,000 of which came through the US (~13%)


For example, many of these firearms are high-caliber and high-powered, such as AK and AR-15 type semiautomatic rifles.


.223 is "high caliber"? Maybe they mean "high caliber" as very nice, well made.. though I doubt it. And "high powered"?? .223 is considered too weak to hunt deer, unlike granddad's .30-06 which has twice the power as .223. Granddad's .308 bolt action rifle takes a more powerful caliber than the AK's 7.62x39 round.

First, certain provisions of some federal firearms laws present challenges to U.S. efforts, according to ATF officials. Specifically, officials identified key challenges related to (1) restrictions on collecting and reporting information on firearms purchases, (2) a lack of required background checks for private firearms sales,


Yah, that pesky constitution and the lack of ability to regulate intra-state sales. We really should look into that.

But of course, buried in the report is what I find most damning, and why no action we take is likely to stop the illegal flow of arms into Mexico- if not us, then somewhere else:

Another significant challenge facing the United States in its efforts to assist Mexico is the concern about corruption among some Mexican government entities. Despite President Calderon’s efforts to combat organized crime, extensive corruption at the federal, state, and local levels of Mexican law enforcement impedes U.S. efforts to develop effective and dependable partnerships with Mexican government entities in combating arms trafficking.
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jody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-20-09 08:24 AM
Response to Reply #43
45. aikoaiko, thanks for the link to the statement by Jess T. Ford, Dir. International Affairs and Trade
Below is the link from Ford's testimony to the 83 page report "FIREARMS TRAFFICKING U.S. Efforts to Combat Arms Trafficking to Mexico Face Planning and Coordination Challenges"

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09709.pdf
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jody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-20-09 08:36 AM
Response to Original message
46. Any product or service with the return on investment as high as illegal drugs can never be banned,
only regulated.

Any government that believes otherwise is either a government of fools or key figures are being de facto bribed to keep the product/service banned.

If it's the latter, then voters who keep reelecting those government leaders are fools.

Of course you might want to get a second opinion.
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benEzra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 12:14 PM
Response to Original message
60. This is the new stimulus package for U.S. gun manufacturers...
Just promise (again!) to outlaw the most popular civilian rifles in the United States, to get more people to buy them. Hey, it worked 1994-2004, and in 2008; it could work again!

FWIW, for those who wonder what the idiotic 1994 Feinstein law actually did:



Yes, that's a ban-era magazine, too ($9.99 in 2003). And no, that's NOT a real AK-47 like the ones the cartels use; like all U.S. Title 1 AK's, that one is non-automatic and works just like any other civilian self-loader. I bought it new in 2003 and shoot competitively and recreationally with it.
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taurus145 Donating Member (453 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-15-09 03:54 PM
Response to Reply #60
69. Don't ask for the promise of another ban
Hell. Prices on those things are through the roof now.

I bought my first SKS for $50.00 at a gun shop - right out of the packing crate, cosmoline and all.

I think my first AK (the real deal, 'cept for only being semi-auto) was around $125.

I also bought 7.62X39 by the pound. We scooped it out of the barrel with one of those aluminum scoops like you use for bulk nails.

Look at the prices now!
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GreenStormCloud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-15-09 04:10 PM
Response to Reply #69
71. Yea, I was pricing a Siaga in .410 bore for my wife. $900 - Wow. N/T
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GreenStormCloud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-15-09 03:30 PM
Response to Original message
68. How many of those US guns were sent by the US Goverment to the Mexican Government?
Such guns are still of US origin, but they aren't found in gun stores or gun shows in the US.
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spin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-15-09 05:18 PM
Response to Reply #68
72. Could it be that the Mexican government wants to disarm Americans?
Perhaps they want us to have similar gun laws to theirs.

The Mexican Constitution guarantees the right of Mexicans to possess arms. Even so, gun control laws in Mexico are very strict, and police discretion in enforcement makes possession of firearms of greater than .22 very difficult.

***snip***

In Mexico as in the United States, civil unrest in 1968 led to important new restrictions on firearms. Before then, many types of rifles and handguns were freely available. Anti-government student movements, however, scared the government into closing firearms stores, and registering all weapons. Compliance with the registration has been very low.

***snip***

The most important gun laws are contained in the Federal Law of Firearms and Explosives. It establishes a Federal Arms Registry controlled by the Ministry of National Defense. Both the federal and state governments are required to conduct public information campaigns to discourage all forms of weapons ownership and carrying. Only sports-related advertising of firearms is permitted.

Title Two of the Federal Law of Firearms allows possession and carrying of handguns in a calibers of .380 or less, although some calibers are excluded, most notably .357 magnum and 9mm parabellum.

Members of agricultural collectives and other rural workers are allowed to carry the aforesaid handguns, .22 rifles, and shotguns, as long as they stay outside of urban areas, and obtain a license.

***snip***

In practice, possession of firearms above .22 caliber is severely restricted. As with much of the rest of Mexican law enforcement, corruption is a major element of the gun licensing system.

***snip***

Even government agencies, frustrated with the Defense Ministry, sometimes smuggle in their own weapons from the U.S.

In August 1985, the army -- using the pretext of a routine inspection -- confiscated the weapons of the Juarez police. Many observers believed the confiscation took place because the city government was controlled by PAN, the leading opposition party. Guns confiscated by the police or the military often end up on the black market.
http://www.davekopel.com/espanol/Mexican-Gun-Laws.htm


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GreenStormCloud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-15-09 04:08 PM
Response to Original message
70. Why would the Mexican cartels want a US semi-auto AK clone.
A US AK clone in semi-auto only is all that can be bought in the US, and they cost around $500+ for a used one, A drug lord can have genuine select-fire AK-47 smuggled in for less than $100 apiece, and that is after paying for shipping with bribe fees. Remember, smuggling is what drug lords do.
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