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Gun rights lawyer predicts Chicago gun ban will fall, crime will fall. Do you agree?

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TPaine7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-01-09 02:28 PM
Original message
Poll question: Gun rights lawyer predicts Chicago gun ban will fall, crime will fall. Do you agree?
Edited on Thu Oct-01-09 02:29 PM by TPaine7
“A year from now there will not be a Chicago handgun ban,” said Alan Gura, the attorney representing the gun owners fighting the ban.

The high court’s five-member conservative majority last year threw out Washington, D.C.’s gun ban in the District of Columbia v. Heller case, but stopped short of invalidating the rest of the country’s handgun bans because that case dealt with federal bans, not local ones.

But gun control advocates and even city of Chicago officials have been bracing for the high court’s firmer embrace of the Second Amendment, which includes a right to bear arms.

“It’s going to be very difficult for Chicago not to have to make the adjustments D.C. had to make,” said Paul Heimke, president of the Brady Campaign against Gun Violence.

At a news conference in Chicago Wednesday, Gura predicted the crime rate will drop in Chicago if handguns are legalized again, because, he said, would-be burglars would opt not to break into homes for fear owners could be armed.

Source: http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/1799122,chicago-gun-ban-supreme-court-093009.article


Throughout America, gun control advocates have predicted "blood in the streets" and shootouts to settle minor traffic accidents if liberal concealed carry laws passed. They have repeatedly been proven wrong.

Here is a prominent gun rights advocate going on the record with his own bold predictions. I agree that the Chicago gun ban will fall, though I am far from certain. I also predict that Chicago home invasion crime will either fall or fail to rise along with the rest of the country. In other words, if home invasions rise nationwide--due to causes having nothing to do with Chicago laws--home invasions in Chicago may rise too, but they will not rise as fast as predicted by the rise in the rest of the country, because some crime will be deterred by the removal of the gun ban.

Those are my predictions. Anyone else care to go on the record?
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panader0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-01-09 02:39 PM
Response to Original message
1. While I don't own a gun and never have
I don't think bans on guns will work. The guns are already out there, and anyone who has ever bought an illegal substance (like weed), knows that you can buy whatever you want on the street. You can ban weed, hookers, guns, abortion, whatever, and it doesn't go
away. It just becomes illegal.
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SPedigrees Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-01-09 02:44 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. My state has very liberal gun laws and a low crime rate, so there you go.
Criminals don't tend to obtain their guns through legal channels, and those of us who do generally are not criminals.
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old mark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-01-09 03:38 PM
Response to Original message
3. The national trend - "shall issue" carry permits - was predicted to cause
the above mentioned "blood in the streets", yet teh FBI Violent Crime Report this year finds the LOWEST rate of violent crime since the Report began in 1973.

Antis replied when I posted on this a month or so ago saying there was no connection, no cause and effect. I just reported the phenomonon, did not draw a conclusion in my post, but I certainly think there is a connection between a large number of legally armed citizens and a decrease in personal assaults, home invasions, etc. It seems foolish to think otherwise.

Yet, obviously, foolishness persists.

mark
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DissedByBush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-01-09 11:04 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. Heinlein said it best
An armed society is a polite society. Manners are good when one may have to back up his acts with his life.
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Euromutt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-01-09 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #3
11. I'd say there's no causal link either
Mainly because there's no correlation from year to year between levels of legal gun ownership or CCW permits issued and the violent crime rate, one way or another. That fact, though, does falsify some gun control advocates' assertion that more guns in more places will inevitably result in more shootings. An ounce of evidence beats a ton of speculation.

And as slackmaster and TPaine7 have rightly pointed out, if restrictions on legal gun ownership do not improve public safety, there is no legitimate reason to have them.
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DonP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-01-09 03:48 PM
Response to Original message
4. Brady already calling "Sour Grapes" on the case.
Wow!!!

You know that they have thrown in the towel when Brady issues a preemptive press release, with Helmke and Hennigan saying the decision won't really make any difference in state or local gun laws.

Nothing to see here news media, move along. Ignore the millions of $ Chicago is spending to fight it anyway, not that important, we're the gun experts, pay no attention...

It reminds me of last year when DC and Brady were pwned by Gura and still had a "winning rally" outside SCOTUS with about six employees and supporters to claim victory on Heller. Only this time it's even more embarrassing.

I guess they need some pictures and press to send to the Joyce people, to show what they are getting for their millions of $.
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Treo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-01-09 03:53 PM
Response to Original message
5. Pardon my ignorance
But why does Chicago continue to elect Grabber politicians?
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-01-09 03:58 PM
Response to Original message
6. Staunch advocate of RKBA checking in, I predict there will be no measurable change
I haven't seen any verifiable evidence that people keeping firearms in their homes actually deters people who are stupid or crazy enough to commit a home invasion.

The other side of that position is that there is no evidence that restrictions on gun ownership are protective of public safety. When I see some proof one way or the other, I may change my mind.
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TPaine7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-01-09 04:33 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. A respectable position.
One detail many miss: if you are correct, the reality you predict will support gun rights from a practical perspective just as well as mine will. In order to restrict constitutional rights (or any freedoms whatsoever, really) government needs a legitimate reason. Without harm to prevent and real victims to protect, rule making is tyranny.

If people having handguns in the home doesn't raise crime, there is no excuse whatsoever to forbid it--even if there were no Second Amendment.
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PavePusher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-02-09 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #6
12. I will make a prediction...
that the number of home invasions might stay the same, but the number of succecfully stopped home invasions goes up remarkably. Hey, it takes a while to clean the gene pool....
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gorfle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-02-09 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #6
13. No measurable change.
Personally, while I have no data, I'd be willing to bet money that most firearm crime is gang-related. I doubt that gangs are much into home invasions, except when acting as part of a gang-warfare operation (i.e., attacking a rival gang member in their home).

Chicago has a massive gang problem that is largely fueled by the business of vices, such as drugs and prostitution.

Firearm laws will not impact gangs. These people are willing and capable of anything and everything, from executions to torture. A detail like breaking laws concerning buying or carrying firearms will not mean anything to them.

It is my opinion that the gang problem in the United States is a far greater problem to domestic security than any terrorist in the Middle East ever has been.
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JonQ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-01-09 04:40 PM
Response to Original message
8. It should fall
that has been the general trend.
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GreenStormCloud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-01-09 06:51 PM
Response to Original message
9. No change from national trend.
I expect Daley to fight a rearguard action, as DC has done, to try to "back-door" prohibit handguns.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-02-09 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. Deleted message
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