POLL: Kadima would get 42 seats if led by Shimon Peres, 40 with Olmert

Fears of the collapse of Sharon's centrist Kadima Party may turn out to be overblown. Obviously, the situation is very fluid right now and it would be difficult to tell how people will react over coming days and weeks. But for now, people look like they're staying put:



Poll: Kadima would get 42 seats if led by Shimon Peres

By Haaretz Service

Public support for Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's Kadima party has not weakened in the face of the prime minister's deteriorating health and the expected end to his political career, according to a Haaretz-Channel 10 poll conducted Thursday by the Dialog Institute.

If the party were headed by Shimon Peres, it would still lead the race for Knesset, according to the poll. The party would be expected to garner 42 Knesset seats - a number similar to Kadima's standing in the polls before Sharon fell ill.

The poll also revealed that Interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, currently the most likely candidate for Kadima leadership, would secure 40 Knesset seats for the party if elected chairman.

If Justice Minister Tzipi Livni took over Kadima leadership, Kadima would be expected to win 38 seats. Headed by Transportation Minister Meir Sheetrit, the party could expect to win 28 mandates, and only 26 seats if Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz were chosen to head the party.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/666920.html

***

Olmert will probably lead the party, as he is already Acting PM and as Sharon's right-hand man will likely be retained by Kadima, despite having been relatively unpopular among the Israeli public according to a lot of the reports I've read. Peres benefits from his status as Israel's elder statesman, but he's always polled well and has failed to ever win an election despite having led the Labor Party time and time again. Plus, he's even older than Sharon and many probably won't want to take that risk. Tzipi Livni is, according to Wikipedia, quite young (47), very close to Sharon, a former Likud Centrist, and the most popular politician in Israel but without any leadership experience it's unlikely she'd be selected as the top candidate.

Nevertheless, this should hopefully dispell some fears that the return of Netanyahu is imminent.

* NOTE: The chart above seems to contradict the text of the article, which says Mofaz should garner the party 26 seets. The graph shows him garnering 36.

There's some good analysis in this piece from Haaretz:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/rosnerBlog.jhtml?itemNo=666703&contrassID=25&subContrassID=0&sbSubContrassID=1&listSrc=Y&art=1

considering a return to Labor. This was on CNN this morning. I've heard nothing since and have tried googling for more info, to no avail.

Anything that suggests the hopes for a Netanyahu return aren't likely to be realized is very welcome. Thanks.

He would be more effective as head of Kadima than going back to Labour. Besides, not sure how he will be perceived now that he left. Olmert would not be so bad either. Don't know much about the others.

L-

Shimon Peres is the former Labour PM that joined Sharon in Likud. Ehud Olmert is supposed to meet with Peres today (Friday) for reasons as yet clear. I can only surmise that Olmert will offer Peres a portfolio.

Amir Peretz is the new leader of Labour Party who recently defeated Peres for the leadership. I read that Peretz was planning to ask former PM Ehud Barak to join him in the campaign and offer him the Defense portfolio if Labour wins in March.

that Labour would overtake Kadima. Too many pot brownies together with wishful thinking leads to faulty conclusions.

:popcorn:

gut feeling is that kadima will win..(i am just that voter that has to decide: labor? shinui? meretz? or kadima)...

kadima with peres and the "mix" remains the best bet. Peres cant go back....i for instance wont vote for labor even if he returns, he would be a "figurehead" there.

meretz and shinui are in the present "done for".....they may have the ideals, but on a practical viewpoint, they cant do much....

i cant stand olmert, he represents the worst of the israelis: loud mouth, brute, in bed with with any and all buisness, simply power hungry...however the rest of the crowd is probably the best that is being offered (and with that relative statement i'll just stop....)

I personally don't see how Labour could possibly win in March, even if Amir Peretz were to bring Ehud Barak into his shadow cabinet.

The last of the old guard.
Not that my guess is worth much in this regard.

One thing I read was that Peres would be seen as too old. Sounds like its too early too know anything much though. Everyone's still speculating.

I didn't say that at all. If yr talking about something else, keep on munching that popcorn, I guess...

Violet...

Indiana, and because of early reports, predicting that Kadima would disintegrate. And it was probably wishful thinking; who could blame anyone for engaging in some wishful thinking, when the alternative who was being presented was Netanyahu!

Today's news says something quite different. I'm glad, although I still have a lot to learn about Olmert, and some of the others.

....pass the brownies over this way

These polls were taken just after Sharon wbecame very sick. There's a pity factor that improves Kadima's polling numbers, but after weeks of campaigning by the new, less popular candidate (probably Olmert), their poll numbers should drop off. Their current goal is 30-32 seats

How effective a public speaker is Olmert? Would he be able to inspire people with words, at such a time? That would seem to me to be a potential factor, perhaps.

On the basis of what's been written here and elsewhere, it appears that whichever is the ultimate winner, that the next logical conclusion is that we might anticipate a coalition government with Labor and Kadima. Does that sound right? And what will that mean for peace?