http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=675451&contrassID=2Presenting, the unthinkable.
Ladies and Gentlemen, may we introduce ... Hamas - the new Likud.
It's 1977 all over again, People of Israel. Once again, everything we knew, is wrong.
Sound familiar? The party in power, the only party which has ever held power, the party which made a people, has shown itself to be bottomlessly corrupt. It has long been unresponsive to crying social needs. It has proven incapable of making peace. It is ineffectual at bringing its people security.
There is no end to the cronyism, the economic inequality, the graft, the hidebound, unwieldy construction of interlocking, profoundly anti-democratic institutions.
Then one day, voters who have swallowed and suffered this for decades, revolt. Overnight, a virtual one-party system is overturned in a stunning victory by a lean, clean, dynamic rival, a movement long shunned for a violent past and an unbending, maximalist take on who should own the entirety of the Holy Land.
If the stage of history is often lit by irony, the proximity of the implosion of the Likud and the rise of Hamas may hold lessons for us, and for Hamas as well.
In 1977, the Likud of Menachem Begin and Yitzhak Shamir was derided abroad - and by the left at home - as a group led by terror warlords, a movement with roots in armed wings that had engaged in bombings and cold-blooded shootings.
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My comments: The Likud has certainly been quite a mixed blessing. On one hand, both the major withdrawals from non-Israeli territory were undertaken by the Likud. OTOH, they massively accelerated and deepened settlement building, helped sabotage the Oslo Accords in the mid-90s, and, I would argue, helped inflame tensions over the past 5 years, feeding a vicious cycle of tit-for-tat bombings and responses that completely destroyed the PA and made prospects for a lasting peace even worse.
So, if we're in for a new Likud period, only on the Palestinian side... well, I can only hope they'll perform more smoothly than Likud did for many years.
Even so, I posted this because I think it's an interesting analysis and considering that progress has, despite everything, been made under a Likud government, let's not get too hastily apocalyptic. Let's take a "wait-and-see" approach.
Personally, I think the cease-fire is likely to stand, although Islamic Jihad may well carry out some attacks now and then. Israel will probably accelerate construction of the fence. Kadima is likely to still win the election, given that the vast majority of people in Israel just want to get out; ironically, Netanyahu and the Right are now trumpeting the left-wing argument that any withdrawals must be negotiated because unilateral negotiations will embolden militants and terrorists who will take credit for driving the Israelis. In all honesty, I think that line of reasoning is essentially correct; and the truth is that militancy drove the Israelis from the territories is essentially true; Israelis are exhausted and don't want to continue shedding blood in defense of territory that is overwhelmingly populated by another people. The fence will likely be completed and a unilateral withdrawal from 85-90% of the West Bank including parts of East Jerusalem (see this link:
http://www.nytimes.com/cfr/international/20060101faessay_v85n1_gavrilis.html?pagewanted=4 ) seems likely within the next few years. That's far from an ideal solution, but at this point, it seems like the least bad option.
Here's a map of the planned path of the map; it's possible that in a full-scale unilateral withdrawal, these borders will be modified and something more in line with what Israel claims was it's 2000 Camp David proposal will be enacted.
Perhaps it will give both sides a much-needed breather and the option of negotiations will remain for the status of the remaining 10-15% of the West Bank. Certainly, it won't solve the conflict; the status of the refugees, the remaining WB territory, the status of Jerusalem's holy sites all will be unresolved; still, it might remove both sides major grievances and allow for a more normal development in the region for the time being.