The Jericho Raid? What does it really accomplish?

Britain and most likely the US were complicit in this raid on a palestinian prison where they abducted 6 prisoners. These six men were being monitored by the British who left 10 minutes before the raid.

Were these prisoners really that valuable? They had been in jail for years what use were they.

Two plausible scenarios

1.) Israel fears that these prisoners will be released and aid Hamas as they gain traction in the new government....?

and/or

2.) Israel is purposely trying to inflame the Palestinians to agitate military conflict prior to Hamas gaining prestige and weaponry from Russia and elsewhere...?

Probably Both.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article351534.ece

The 'more or less' modifies 'in jail'. He was complicit in killing a Israeli minister of tourism. Hardly a combatant, by most definitions. But still ...

Sa'adat was "sentenced" under duress, BTW.

Abbas last week said that he'd be willing to release Sa'adat, but that he wouldn't be responsible for what happened to him--presumably the Israelis would come for him. The PFLP has connections to Syria; having the guy escape to Syria would be possible, or going underground locally. Hamas had previously indicated it was prepared to release him. They want the PFLP as coalition partners. This would, of course, shred the agreement by which Israel didn't raid Arafat's compound and extract the killers by force.

While Abbas prefers to see collusion, it's possible that the Israelis merely took advantage of the opportunity. There's no independent evidence arguing for collusion apart from the timing, and Abbas' question "What else could it be?" The Israeli press said that the Israelis had kept the jail under observation for a few days or a week; when the British and the Americans left, they were in place and good to go. And they went. BTW, there's no independent evidence for this, except that the Israelis were notified by the British and Americans that they were contemplating leaving. After all, the Israelis, British, Americans, and PA are parties to the agreement by which Sa'adat was held.

The Israeli press also pointed out that the Palestinian guards left almost immediately afterward. This, presumably, is verifiable; don't look for anybody to verify it. And that when the Israelis went in, the "prisoners" had access to the armory, with few locks restraining them. So it's arguable that the prisoners weren't really prisoners; rather like some Hamas figures in the past, they're "under guard" but have a considerable amount of freedom. One could, extrapolating from the Israeli press account, that the Palestinians took advantage of the Am/Brit abandoning of the jail precisely to enable an "accidental" release of the prisoners.

But we won't go there.

I don't find that assumption of US/Brit/Israeli collusion convincing either. Nevertheless, I wonder if the US/UK is annoyed about being put in the position of being suspected of it (I would be) without being consulted (if that were so), and if they are not, well then why not? I realize you offer the one explantion with the violated agreement, but it seems to me one might still like to be consulted before the stick was poked into the hornets nest. There was a good deal of mayhem in Gaza and elsewhere, some of those people might have liked the opportunity to prepare or be somewhere else.

First 'Jericho Effect' poll: Kadima at 43 seats, Likud shows gains

<snip>

"An opinion poll released on Thursday, the first survey conducted after the IDF?s siege of the Jericho prison and the surrender of the killers of cabinet minister Rehavam Ze'evi, showed that if elections were held now, Kadima would gain as many as 43 seats and that the Likud had passed Labor as the second-strongest party."

The Army Radio poll conducted by the Geocartographia polling firm showed the Likud on the rise, adding two seats to 16. Labor, meanwhile, slipped to 14. Kadima would gain 42-43 seats, a rise of as many as five seats over last week.

Pollster Avi Dagani said that the rise in the Likud's strength, despite the fact that the Jericho operation was carried out at the order of Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Kadima, was an outgrowth of the "Jericho Effect," the voter response to the raid."

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/694710.html