The cold arithmetic of blood

for those interested in really understanding what the war is about...this article explains it pretty well:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/747053.html



It is a war intended to ensure that the real strategic threat to Israel, the one from Iran and Syria, will be cut down to a minimum, thanks to Israel's ability to maintain its deterrence. And it is also a war that can affect the peace process with the Palestinians: Israel's ability to maintain its deterrence is the best way to convince them to come to the negotiating table, just as Israel's ability to maintain its deterrence during the Yom Kippur War prompted Egypt to sign a peace agreement with Israel.


To put it bluntly: Israel's willingness to absorb hundreds of losses can prevent the deaths of thousands, and perhaps even more, in the future. This is a cold and cruel arithmetic of blood, but it is the one that will be determined in this war.

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oh yea....and before we start with the "ahhah..it was planned!...got news for you guys: of course it was planned, by all, syrian, iran, hezballa and israel...all were prepared for it, not knowing what series of events would start it off, but knowing that eventually something probably would...hizballa decided to risk it.

Egypt was ready to sign a peace deal with Israel before the Yom Kippur war, but the Israeli government thought it could have better conditions for peace after a short war with Egypt. Israel ultimately lost the war and the same peace offered by Egypt before the war was now accepted by the Israelis, thousands of lives lost for nothing. The Yom Kippur example doesn't prove that a war is inevitable from Israel's point of view, but that it's the worst thing they can do, as conditions set by the Hizballah will eventually be accepted by Israel when the casualty list grows.

"Egypt was ready to sign a peace deal with Israel before the Yom Kippur war"

come on..but use real information...no BS (this one beats a previous post that said the Jordanians were slowly giving the palestenains their independence...)

go for it!!!

(i'm not sure israel lost the war....something to do with surrounding Egytians 3rd army was said to have helped Egypt stop fighting.....)

Still, it's a known fact that Sadat tried to negotiate for a peace with Israel, but Israel--still thinking in 6-Day-War terms--refused, only to accept the pre-war condition with few face-saving changes.

What I'm saying is that a similar situation is happening now: Israel thinks of itself as unbeatable but may eventually be forced to accept (with minor changes) the conditions set by the Hizbolla.

From Wikipedia:

In 1971, Sadat endorsed in a letter the peace proposals of UN negotiator Gunnar Jarring which seemed to lead to a full peace with Israel on the basis of Israel's withdrawal to its pre-war borders. This peace initiative failed as neither the United States nor Israel accepted the terms as discussed then.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadat

"The war in Lebanon has not been about the return of two abducted soldiers. It is a war for Israel's deterrent power."

so let's not hear any more crap about how Hezbollah started it with their kidnapping.


"Israel cannot promise that the Hezbollah will pay an intolerable price for breaking the taboo by attacking the country's home front. It can promise to be willing to pay a very high price in order to make Hezbollah pay a far higher one. This promise could have been the basis for its deterrence."

"To put it bluntly: Israel's willingness to absorb hundreds of losses can prevent the deaths of thousands, and perhaps even more, in the future. "


How arrogant of Israel to decide that not only will they accept the losses but they will inflict 10 times the number of losses on Israel, when according to the article Syria and Iran are really their ultimate targets. They are stepping over Lebanon like they are worthless.


Well, as the US learned in Iraq, this tactic will not work. You can invade another country while hiding your motives but when the truth comes out, Israel will be held accountable.

So, after admitting that Israel used this event to spark a war with ulterior motives, you then go and say Israel didn't start it. You can't have it both ways. Either they planned it or they didn't.

all govts do it (at least the responsable ones)..plan for possible events that might happen.

I can see you need some basic knowledge in history and govts.

Had Egypt and Syria NOT attacked in 73 that war would not have happended, yet israel did have plans for such an attack..

Had Hizballa NOT attacked this war would not have happened either...but they did, hence israels use of its contingency plan.

if you do know something about lebanons relationship to iran and syria you would realize that both have been using lebanon as a way of getting to israel...a proxy war.

in case you didnt notice it: hizballa planned for this war....and it was they that started it.

(if your using the logic of he who causes the most damage is the guilty party, i would suggest you then blame the US and England for starting WWII, they killed far more germans then Americans and Brits were killed....)

and a footnote about the kidnapped soldiers...its very much about them, if they werent kidnapped, israel wouldnt have reacted like it did, we very much want our soldiers back and the attempts to stop..but the way for this is via syria and iran through lebanon (unfortunatly)

either it is or it isn't about the 2 soldiers. you can't claim both.

I don't need a history lesson, but I'm not going to argue with you. You seem to have a perception of the facts that most of the world disagrees with. And it's impossible to have a debate with someone who is so biased towards one side that they are willing to ignore and excuse all atrocities simply because they believe their cause is just enough.

For the record, I used to believe the CNN propaganda on Israel and I also believed for years that Israel had valid reasons for what they did to the Palestinians, for example. But then I looked a little closer and I saw the truth. The truth is not to be found on CNN or similar news outlets. And I no longer blindly support Israel's policies.

In essence it was Israel, that turned me against Israel's policies.

for some thats hard to understand, but in the middle east its quite the norm:

israel attacked with force Because of the soldiers, because it was "enough"....the goal however was more than just returning the soldiers, it was to stop the kidnapping attempts, stop the sniping and stopping the occasional katusha....and to do that meant weakening hizballa....with its implications to syria and iran.

i didnt even mention the deaths....though deaths have an affect upon geopolitics they arent the subject in this case. and I rarly listen to CNN, I find the arab and israeli outlets and nassralla and the different analysis far more interestinng and informing.

the argument that "most of the world disagrees with me"..i assume your being egocentric and assume that most of the world consists of those countries that in the past have colonial histories and still believe they know what best...correct?...western europe. News Flash!! much of the arab world disagrees with you. (not so much the street as the rulers of jordan, egypt, syria, iran, saudi arabia etc)

you can argue with me, just bring some decent theories or facts....

but it seems to me that Israel is making more enemies than friends.

no "land grabs"
no israel wants water

no israel is targeting children for fun

no the kidnapping was a ruse so israel could kill lebanese

no israel needed a testing ground for US bombs

did i forget anything?

oh yea..i forgot the perverbial pipe line that has to be developed/protected etc

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And her soldiers were not abducted , but detained.

A self-fulfilling fantasy of blood.
"We have to die in large numbers to show the mooslims we are not pussies."
Any sign of "weakness" will cause our destruction.
The largest and best equipped military force in the middle east is in constant danger of being taken for wimps.
This sort of dishonest, fear-mongering babble has done and will do far more damage to Israel than all the hate in all of Sheikdoms of Araby.

if you leave your western "we know it all colonial mentality"....you might get a different insight on other cultures...but you do have to leave the "colonial baggage behind."

Here, have some more, wallow in it ...

Throughout the 1990s, militant Islam terror cells continued to test the resolve of the West, particularly America. Encouraged by the lack of response, in the caves of Afghanistan and around the world, they planned their most lethal mission. In the early morning hours of Sept. 11, 2001, militant Islam executed their most brilliant plan with devastating results and catastrophic loss of more than 3,000 lives.

Now fast-forward to today's headlines, the summer of 2006. Most Americans have fallen asleep; again, while they silently watch her people protest against Israel's right to exist as a nation state and defend herself. Impetuously and without hesitation demonstrators carry banners and lift up the flags of terrorists committed to the destruction of freedom and democracy. Meanwhile, the state governments who support militants shore up footholds in "some world leaders" such as members of the U.N., liberal politicians and diplomats who refuse to call terrorist - terrorist.

Unfortunately, they lack the will and intestinal fortitude to fight terrorism as it should be fought by complete annihilation of the enemy. Israel does not need to show restraint and their response to being attacked is not disproportionate to the attacks received. Israel has a full understanding of warfare and what it takes to win. Victory is defined by crushing your enemy with overwhelming force and achieving your objectives. One cannot appease such violent and non-tolerant factions. Remember, the League of Nations (U.N.) and Europe tried appeasements in 1938 with Adolph Hitler and Nazi fascism. Remember, one of Nazism's objectives was the extermination of the Jewish race and demonstrated that by killing more than 6 million Jews. Militant Islam has the same objective with the West also in the cross-hairs.

To date, terrorists have launched more than 2,500 rockets on Israel's civilian population. The governments of Iran and Syria continue to openly support their offspring of the Hezbollah, Hamas and others. Their tactics of using civilians in Lebanon as human shields are embraced with acceptance, and then casualties are used for propaganda purposes. Currently, the Middle East is only one front of the Dragon's war as it seeks to divide, conquer and devour all that is good, that is right and that is just. Militant Islam is committed to the destruction of the West and the western way of life. It will stop at nothing to destroy anything opposed to it and Israel is only the first stop on its conquest. America must stand firm alongside Israel with unwavering support. If Israel falls for lack of American support, Europe will fall next, then America. I ask, whose side are you on? And know whose side are our elected representatives on?

http://www.hanfordsentinel.com/articles/2006/08/07/opinion/opinion02.txt

You got that? We're all asleep. We're all cowards that want to appease the emeny. What drool.

the regional friction involving jews, druze, muslems, kurds, christians, lebanese, israelis, syrians, iranians, etc is far more complex than your simplistic world of power politics between nation states....

but like i mentioned, you have to leave the white colonial superior mentality at the door and learn to accept that other cultures may have motivations that you dont quite understand.....

colonialism didnt die out after WWII, it just took a different form.....

Having you talk about "the white colonial mentality" is most amusing.

i am a "white western liberal' who believes dictatorships, and fanatical religious groups have no place in society....i also understand that the arab/middle east culture is very different from the west...with large parts that have to be "revised".....but i recognize that in the meantime those different values have effects on people and politics here....and i shall understand only part

others who pretend to be "progressive" which in reality is simple another way of saying cultural colonialist...will understand little of the culture.

No shit? Is it complicated too? Or just a sort of big, violent stereotype like in the OP?

this was the only part which really made sense to me: "The war in Lebanon has not been about the return of two abducted soldiers."

though i did read this haaretz article:

Hezbollah fighter confesses to kidnapping IDF soldiers
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/747430.html

i still dont see how destroying most of lebanon proves or secures anything... an analogy comes to mind... somehting about going after the head and not the body... im sure youve heard it before.

national politicians/military people live in a 'very different world"...and in the middle east its not always tempered by western values.

I'll put in the short version as i've heard it said from different analysis: israeli and arab:

it goes like this:

iran and syria influence and pay for hezballa, Hezballa now controls southern and Eastern lebanon and parts of beirut....these areas are "no go areas for the lebanese police and security services....in essence hezballa is slowly taking over lebanon. Its got politicians in the govt and a militia stronger than the army.

If Hezballs gets lebanon, that gives iran the ability to confront israel directly. In the meantime via hezballa iran and syria get to threaten and occasionally attack israel....sort of keeping israeli resources tied up and show their people that they are confronting the zionists.....

this obviously makes israel just a bit nervous, having a mini fanatical iran on it northern border and hamas on its southern is not a comfortable place to be.

so why attack lebanon with so much force?...lebanon on its own will not confront hezballa, its too strong nor does the lebanese govt have the political will to. However if its choice is to have its country destroyed...well if hizballa is weakened then given two bad choices of either sending its army down south (the beirut section that hizballa owned no longer exists) and confronting syria/iran/hezballa or having its country destroyed, might just motivate the lebanese govt to come down south...

anyway thats the theory...arab politics being what it is, which is very confusing, i tend to not to pretend to understand them.

im curious what you know about israeli mines along southern lebanon... do they exist and the possibility that the 2 captured soldiers were part of a unit venturing into southern lebanon when their tank rolled over an israeli mine?

I never heard that particular version before.

i was surprised to hear about them, I never heard of them being laid, never saw an "no go area" never heard of anyone (lebanese/hizballa) walking on them...and never heard the IDF deny their existance....so i have no idea.

Hizballa mentioned right after taking the soldiers that they were on the israeli side...and there are other details that make it clear. The destroyed Humvee were shown on israeli TV by israeli TV cameramen (they couldnt have entered lebanon..). Furthermore Hizballa owns the lebanon border, it would have been suicidal for a humvee in the morning to cross the border.

The tank was simply part of th quick reaction force....and Hizballa knew the entrance the tank would take (there are only a few entrances to cross the border....the tank was suckered in.....and it took half a day to get the 4 soldiers bodies out of it as the shooting was constant (whereas the bodies from the Humvee were removed immediately.)