Israel Gaza Offensive Boosts Barak, Scrambles Election Outlook: It's the elections stupid

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Israel’s Gaza military offensive against Hamas may make or break Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s political future, and that of his Labor Party.

With national elections scheduled for Feb. 10, the offensive is scrambling the political calculations of both Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the prime-minister candidate of Labor’s coalition partner, the Kadima Party, and Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu. At the same time, the stakes are highest for Labor leader Barak, 66, who was prime minister from 1999 until 2001.

Success in Gaza -- defined as a cessation of the Palestinian rocket attacks that followed the Dec. 19 end of a six-month cease-fire with Hamas -- probably wouldn’t be enough to propel Barak himself to the prime minister’s office. But it would strengthen his position within the ruling coalition, reinforce his perceived public image as the country’s top military strategist and help restore Labor’s flagging political fortunes.

“Among the people today there is a sense of relief,” said Danny Ben-Simon, a Labor parliamentary candidate. “All of those I meet tell me, ‘Danny, you are going to gain politically because this is the Ehud Barak we like and trust.’”

Under Israel’s system, voters choose among the parties, and the leader of the biggest vote-getter then tries to put together a coalition in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset. No party has ever won an outright majority.

Kadima holds 29 seats in the current Knesset, Labor has 18 and Likud 12. The most recent poll, which was published in the daily newspaper Ma’ariv a day before the air strikes began Dec. 27, showed Labor winning just 11 seats; the survey had Kadima at 30 and Likud at 29.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aD.xX2IHLaWs&refer=home

Israel is a rogue nation!

Deciding to push the issue when elections were at stake.

Only the Easter Bunny doesn't believe that Hamas was trying to strengthen its position before Obama came in.

Only the easter bunny and the keebler elves don't believe that the Feb 10th Israeli elections aren't the prime factor for the Gaza invasion.

If Sun Tzu were alive today, and examined the grand strategy of Israel over the last 30 years; He'd probably shit his pants laughing so hard at the stupidity of Israel's politicians.

Warfare is a great matter to a nation;
it is the ground of death and of life;

it is the way of survival and of destruction, and must be examined. ?

Sun Tzu

<snip>

"The Israel Defense Forces operation in Gaza has prompted a surge in the number of people volunteering at the Labor Party's campaign headquarters over the last week, party officials say.

Thus far, the operation has been very popular with the public, and most of the credit has gone to Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who is also Labor's chairman.

The surge in people calling or emailing to volunteer their services is yet another sign of a trend already evident from the polls: a sharp rise in support for Labor in general and Barak in particular. Last week's Haaretz poll, for instance, found that Labor had risen to 16 Knesset seats from 11 in the previous poll.

The turnabout is particular striking for a party whose demise has been widely forecast just two weeks ago.

"There is no doubt that the operation has highlighted Barak's advantages and enabled a real discourse about the truly important matters," one senior Labor official said this weekend. "That's what we were trying to say all along: He's not a pal, he's not nice, but he's a leader. And now, people see that."

Even in the Ramle market, generally a reliable bastion of the right, support for Barak was virtually unanimous last week.

"Barak has proven himself in this operation as someone who knows how to do the work," said Shlomo Sarur, who has been a member of rival Likud's central committee for 25 years. "On security, he's good, and you can't take that away from him."

Labor officials insist that the operation's timing has nothing to do with the fact that elections are due to take place in another month, on February 10. But they readily admit that, as one put it, "his conduct in managing the operation in Gaza enables the public to examine Barak's conduct in the real world and not the world of image and style."

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