Likud, Kadima Fight for First Place in Israel

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Israel’s governing Kadima party is catching up to its main contender ahead of a legislative election, according to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv. A prospective tally of seats shows the centre-right Likud party would win 29 seats in the upcoming ballot, up one since early January.

Kadima is a close second with 27 seats, followed by Labour with 17 mandates, Israel Our Home with 13 seats, and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with nine mandates. Support is lower for Vitality-Together, Yahadut Hatorah, and Jewish Home. The Arab parties would get 10 seats.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/likud_kadima_fight_for_first_place_in_israel/

"I fear that the main objectives of the IDF operation in Gaza have not been met," Knesset Member Yuval Steinitz (Likud) said in response to cabinet's decision on a unilateral ceasefire.


"It is not clear what mechanism will prevent the arms smuggling into Gaza or why we can rely on Egypt," he said. (Amnon Meranda)

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3657795,00.html

Knesset Member Talab El-Sana (United Arab List-Ta'al) said Israel's decision on a unilateral truce in Gaza was a "publicity stunt mean to reduce international pressure."

"The conflict is not with the US or Egypt, so any understandings with those countries are irrelevant. The war is with Hamas, and the challenge is to achieve peace with enemies, not allies," he said. (Sharon Roffe-Ofir)

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3657796,00.html

Socialism is the only thing that can save Israel now from self-destruction.

I think they will overturn it.

Hamas could have a large part in deciding who wins the Israeli elections

Would Nuttyahoo really be worse for Hamas than Livni? Hmmmm.

I haven't seen or heard much from him since the end of 2008.

I've seen a couple of statements by him lately, mostly of the "go team" and "we are doing great with my support" and "we need to really crush the Palestinians" variety.

You'd think he'd be making the rounds a bit more.

Tell Olmert/Barak/Livni what a great job they are doing? Or on the other hand say how bad the Gaza Op is going? He's stuck, saying nothing much is his best strategy.

Nuttyahoo sounds like a candy bar or something really not good for you

In my ignorance, I was holding some hope for Zippy, but kiss that goodbye.

While he is personally more nauseating as a personality, his record is certainly more preferable to Barak (which is like comparing rotten apples to spoiled milk, admittedly). Kadima & Labor have, with their joint assault on Gaza, more or less bonded their fortunes together. Likud may be unlikely to be able to form a strong bloc in parliament without them, and would thus be more accountable to the smaller parties with wildly incompatible interests. I suppose the end-result of that is keeping things hamstrung enough until the next Spark finds a willing Tinder (which would be about 6 months, given the recent average).

Saiou Ga Uma
(Saiou's Horse)

There is a Chinese story of a farmer who used an old horse to till his fields. One day, the horse escaped into the hills and when the farmer's neighbors sympathized with the old man over his bad luck, the farmer replied, "Bad luck? Good luck? Who knows?" A week later, the horse returned with a herd of horses from the hills and this time the neighbors congratulated the farmer on his good luck. His reply was, "Good luck? Bad luck? Who knows?"

Then, when the farmer's son was attempting to tame one of the wild horses, he fell off its back and broke his leg. Everyone thought this very bad luck. Not the farmer, whose only reaction was, "Bad luck? Good luck? Who knows?"

Some weeks later, the army marched into the village and conscripted every able-bodied youth they found there. When they saw the farmer's son with his broken leg, they let him off.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=124&topic_id=249711&mesg_id=250192

I'm not inclined to have an opinion, except that I think I would get ill if I had to watch Barak's smirk all the time as PM. It's hard to define what "better" means at this point, in terms of those three.

Some would argue that the Hamas suicide bombings right before the 1996 election helped Netanyahu defeat Peres.

OBL's last minute announcement right before our 2004 election

And America is an enabler in their crimes. Someone will have to break the cycle of violence and injustice, but it won't be Bibi, Livni, or Barak.

If Likud wins the elections then there's zero chance of President Obama getting any sort of peace agreement anytime soon. Likud's base is made of people who genuinely want to drive the Palestinians into the sea. Kadima and Labour can at least make concessions if the political conditions are right. Barak put Palestinian statehood on the table in 2000. It will be a cold day in hell before Netanyahu even considers that. None of them are great but saying there's no difference is like saying there was no difference between Bush and Gore.

Kadima are kind of like Chuck Hagel and Colin Powell type Republicans who came to the party way way too late but it's still better than not having shown up at all.

Livni tried her hand at war-monger, she is definitely no Nutty (or Bush, for that matter)

Everyone has moved center right (or most people).

That's the reality of living with terrorist threats all the time.

How would you like it if your spiritual leader or your elected leader gets assassinated by an Apache helicopter?

No one is innocent here, not by a long shot.

What an exciting race. Of the three, Netanyahoo actually has less of a proven track-record for militancy than Barak (an old terrorist with a prolific career of murder for political gain that spans decades). Livni is very eager to prove herself as a "champion of Arab moderates", so will resort to the army whenever possible.