Israeli ceasefire offers precious respite, but little has changed

Hamas has not yet run up the white flag and Israel's finger is still on the trigger

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"Three weeks after the launch of Israel's offensive against the Gaza Strip, its unilateral ceasefire marks a new stage in the conflict rather than the end of a shocking story that has reverberated across the Middle East and the world.

Ehud Olmert's declaration that Israel had attained its military goals was met almost at once with the launch of more rockets from across the border – a defiant signal that Hamas can still fight. With five Israeli divisions deployed in Gaza, ground attacks could resume at any moment.

Hamas has not run up the white flag. Israel's finger is still on the trigger. Gaza and its 1.5 million people remain under blockade. There is no agreement between these bitter enemies. Nothing fundamental has changed, except that some 1,200 Palestinians and 13 Israelis have died.

Olmert's claim that Hamas has been "badly beaten" is hard to evaluate, although the heavy bombing of tunnels under the Egyptian border must have squeezed its supply routes. Estimates late last week were that its core military strength had been "degraded" by only 10-15%.

Israel believes Operation Cast Lead has re-established its fearsome deterrent capability, which was eroded by Hizbullah's successes in the 2006 Lebanon war. Its losses – three civilians and 10 soldiers, four of those killed by friendly fire – kept the Israeli Jewish public firmly behind the offensive, setting the stage for elections on February 10.

But the Palestinian death toll of 1,200 or more – the majority civilians, including hundreds of children – was a terrible price. The sheer scale of the killing, allegations of war crimes by the UN, mass demonstrations and calls for boycotts of Israel underline global as well as Arab outrage at the human cost of this most asymmetric of wars.

Even those with no love for Hamas, who criticise it for a recklessness that played straight into Israel's hands, warn that the slaughter will fuel hatred and radicalisation and will motivate a new generation of "martyrs" and suicide bombers."

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