Israel muddies US-Iran momentum

For the excerpt, which discusses Israeli intelligence capabilities in Iran. A point that is relevant whenever some bloviator from the IDF starts prattling about Iran's evil intentions. For the record, I think Israel's dislike of Iran is rooted in Iran's support for Hezbollah and Hamas, and not in any fears about its military intentions, and that Israel would do better to argue its case on that basis.

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At a recent talk at Harvard University, Zvi Shtauber, a former Israeli diplomat and former director of the Institute for National Security Studies, admitted that Israel lacked credible intelligence on Iran and that "no one in Israel can provide a credible analysis of what Iran wants". Shtauber claimed that Israel was unclear how far Iran wanted to take its nuclear program, and did not know whether Tehran would follow the "Japanese model" in which nuclear weapons capability remains dormant.

At the same time, Shtauber reiterated the official Israeli line that Iran's nuclear program represented an "existential threat". Shtauber said that an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would simply "delay" Iran's nuclear program by at most a couple of years. According to Shtauber, no one in Israel expected that an attack on Iran would put to rest any potential Iranian threat.

When asked at what point Israel would consider a military strike, Shtauber said it would be when Iran was "within the striking distance" of acquiring a nuclear bomb.

"I personally think that Iran's nuclear capability is quite legitimate," said Shtauber, adding that his personal view was that he did not see an imminent threat of Iranian nukes being fired at Israel - even if Iran built a nuclear arsenal.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KD01Ak01.html

Does some sort of spell get lifted the day they're no longer under military discipline?

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"Big powers should not rush to impose new sanctions on Iran at a time when Tehran has a good chance to move to normal ties with Washington, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said on Tuesday.

In a sharp change in U.S. policy, President Barack Obama has offered a new start in relations with Iran after decades of deep mistrust between the two countries which are also locked in a dispute over Iran's nuclear programme.

Britain, a close U.S. ally and one of the six powers that have been trying to persuade Iran to abandon uranium enrichment, has backed the new U.S. approach.

Miliband told Britain's parliament the U.S. offer "represents the best chance Iran will ever have to normalise its relations with the rest of the world and above all to normalise its relations with the U.S."

Asked how long Britain would wait before seeking more United Nations' or European Union sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme, Miliband said: "Now is not the time to be rushing for more sanctions."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKLV44957620090331


High-Level U.S. and Iranian Officials Meet

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"The Obama administration held its first high-level contact with the Iran's government here, marking what Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said could become closer cooperation between Washington and Tehran on Afghanistan and other global hot spots.

The brief meeting on the sidelines of a United Nations-sponsored conference on Afghanistan involved the State Department's special representative on Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, and Iran's deputy foreign minister, Medhi Akhundzadeh. Mrs. Clinton called the encounter "cordial" and said the two diplomats agreed to "stay in touch" regarding possible future meetings."

<snip>

"Mrs. Clinton stressed the opportunity for cooperation between Washington and Tehran on fighting the drug trade and stabilizing Afghanistan. She steered clear of the U.S. dispute with Tehran over its pursuit of nuclear technologies and its support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.

"The question of border security and, in particular, the transit of narcotics is a worry the Iranians have that we share" in Afghanistan, Mrs. Clinton said at the end of the one-day conference. "We will look for ways to cooperate with them."

Mr. Akundzadeh said Tehran was open to cooperation with the U.S. and the international community on Afghan issues.

Mr. Holbrooke's encounter with Mr. Akhundzadeh is the latest in a flurry of diplomatic overtures by Mr. Obama. Last month, the U.S. leader delivered a radio address to the Iranian nation describing his desire for closer U.S.-Iranian relations. His aides are also discussing lifting the ban on regular diplomatic contacts between U.S. and Iranian officials. And Mr. Obama may send a letter to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, seeking direct talks over the nuclear issue, according to senior U.S. officials."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123852188758874429.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Israel would do well to get on board. I'm pretty sure Obama and the EU will protect Israel, within limits, and I'm pretty sure that's the best shot they have left, because Russia and China are sure not going to give a shit.