Does Obama understand Israeli politics?
Posted by SHMUEL ROSNERLast week, an American official told me that I was way over the line when I wrote that the Obama administration "was not mistaken, it was lying without even blinking". My point was: I do not believe the administration when it comes to "not knowing" about Israel's understandings with President Bush on settlements. Ignoring previous understandings, claiming that the new administration has no obligation to keep these understandings alive, believing that the understandings were unhelpful - this is all acceptable. But saying that the Obama team isn't familiar with the understandings - is, well, hard to believe.
Nevertheless, last weekend I was somewhat apologetic when it comes to the use of the word "lie". It was a lawyerly way of getting rid of the understandings, I said. I still do not like it, I still find it problematic, but I don't want the use of harsh language to become the focus of my argument.
Of course, this didn't prevent me from smiling as I was reading my friend Aluf's article this morning:
Obama did not try to communicate with the Israeli public and convince them that freezing settlements will be an important and positive step to contribute to peace and a better future. Obama addressed the Arabs and Muslims, but not the Israelis. His neglect increased concerns among Israelis that they do not have a friend in the White House. When the president is "Hussein," he is perceived as being pro-Arab and picking on Netanyahu. The administration's pathetic attempt to deny the existence of understandings with Israel on construction in the settlements only bolstered this impression. It was possible to blame Israel for violating its promises, or to say that the policy had changed and to explain why, but not to lie.Bottom line: We have to assume one of two things.
1. The Obama administration doesn't understand Israeli politics, and doesn't recognize that its public policies - while possibly helpful with the Arab world - can hardly make Israelis feel secure and ready to cooperate with the President, no matter how often he says that his commitment to Israel's security is unshakable.
2. The Obama administration doesn't care about Israeli politics and Israeli public opinion, and is ready to sacrifice the good will of Israelis in exchange for (presumed) better relations with the Arab world.
In either case - as I've demonstrated a couple of days ago - the administration should take into account that it doesn't have any track record with which to calm Israelis. It's true that the Israeli public wasn't happy with PM Netanyahu's tendency to quarrel with the Clinton administration in the mid 1990's. But this was a different situation: by the time Netanyahu was elected, Clinton was already a "great friend", and most Israeli recognized that his intentions (even when they didn't like some of his actions) were good. Another difference: In the Nineties a significant number of Israelis still believed that peace with Palestinians was possible. They could see why some American pressure might be helpful in the long run.
For Obama, life with Israelis is more complicated. He started pushing immediately, without gaining the confidence of Israelis first. And he is pushing even though it is clear to the vast majority of Israelis that freezing the settlements will not bring about peace or security.
That's why one doesn't see many Israelis supporting Obama's attempt to freeze the settlements. That's why no major political party in Israel can afford to be identified with the Obama way. It will be politically damaging.
Does this need fixing? Maybe yes, maybe not. Depends on ones answer to the question of "doesn't understand" and "doesn't care".
http://cgis.jpost.com/Blogs/rosner/entry/does_obama_understand_israeli_politics