Bush leading Among 18 - 29 yr olds according to Zogby

Just heard this on Olberman, so I went to Zogby.com & it is true.

Among 18 - 29 yrs old:

Bush 47%
Kerry38%

Please tell me how this can be?
I have heard young people are growing more conservative, but I am amazed by these numbers.

If it was any other pollster, I would ignore it, but Zogby has proven to be pretty reliable.

how was the sampling done

And he admits it was an outlier and will keep close eye on it.

Also Kerry has explained the Draft issue so badly, as well as Lockhart lately it could be a turnaround. But I think this age group is simply too anti-Iraq War and anti-Bush to be anywhere near true

-snip-

Bush seems to be making gains among 18-29 year olds. He now leads among them -- something that has not happened all year until now. I am watching closely to see if that continues. This group also has 9% undecided, which is high for this year. Neither Bush's gains nor the high undecideds are good news for Kerry.

"Lots more campaign to go. Wednesday's debate is vital because many sub-groups remain close and because so many Independents have yet to make up their minds.”

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1214 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 8 through October 10, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

done Friday thru Sunday, with results released today.

1214 likely voters

pretty good size sample

the whole 1214 was not young people--that's the whole poll.

And the very day before, Zogby had Kerry at 53% among the same group like all the other polls. There was not a 16 point rop for Kerry in one day!

THis is a one-poll blip, a bad sample.

Seriously. No fucking sympathy for any young person who would vote for Bush. Send each and every one of them off to fight his stinking wars.

and I'm 19.

... just desserts would be their last thought (before the shrapnel takes their fool heads off) to be: I should have voted for Kerry.

uncoming draft, but said if they drafted him he would go fight. i asked him why he would want to go to a foreign country and kill people who have done absolutely nothing to us. He just shrugged and didn't answer. He is a very nice young man, and I thought he was smart. Guess not. Sad, just sad.

stupid little shits

Every other poll says the opposite, youth for Kerry.

She would say that was BS.

edited to add:

However, it's possible I suppose that if many of the 18-29 year olds are politically unaware, then I guess Bush would poll better by default because the politically clueless would recognize the current President's name and pick him.

I don't know.

Look at all the Dean supporters! Wouldn't his "base" be that age group? NO ONE can tell me that all those young people went from Dean to the chimp. No way. That cannot be right. PLUS, THAT group would be the no "land line" phone users who aren't polled so, how the hell would they know? I don't believe it.

I have seen so many young people say they support the war, but no, they are not planning on enlisting.

Let some other guy do it; they have other priorities, like Cheney did.

That's news to me.

I fall into that category, and I'm for Kerry. As are most of my friends that are in that age group. Was this country wide? I don't think it is very acurate, but polls never are completly acurate.

This poll sounds outta whack to me..this is the category that Kerry should be excelling in..maybe Kerry's youth supporter have the cells phones and or "new registered"..

I have a good friend that just had 21 of 22 students in one class going home for October break telling her that they are definitely voting for Kerry.

I talk to 18-25 yrs. old and just about all say they are voting for Kerry. As a matter a fact in the past 2 months I have only run into may-be 5 that plan to vote for Bush.

He could have been deking you the whole time! (Like Rasmussen)

Other polls show Kerry 56% and Bush 30% among the 19-29 and that 51% think Bush will reinstate the draft.

You would have to do an old-style clipboard on-the-ground poll to get the young people sampled.

From his site: I've heard so many conflicting stories - is Zogby International a Republican pollster, a Democratic pollster or an Independent pollster?

JZ: "We are independent and nonpartisan. I am personally a Democrat, but the firm does a lot of work for media (like Reuters America, New York Post, St. Louis Post Dispatch, etc.) and we work for both parties."

http://www.zogby.com/about/faq.cfm#question4

Young people need to feel protected. This politics stuff is tricky business, and unless you've already got some good knowledge of the Reagan era, Viet Nam, etc, this whole mess is just too complicated for many of them.

Watch the Hardball or CNN debate coverages. They always talk to students, and the students invariable seem to say Bush is an honest, strong leader. They don't know any better. NOW, I know a lot of "young people" read DU, and I am not in any way using that broad a brush. Don't read this as a RightWinger would do, and assume "some" equates with "all." But from what I've seen and the young people I've talked to, Bush does have a frightening level of support. I chalk it up to simply too much information for their beautiful minds.

for the few young Bush supporters at each campus they visited. They never seem to balance that student's impressions with one voting for Kerry, though. Hmmmmm, wonder why? :eyes:

This 'poll' is meaningless. At best, it is indicative of how many young people with land-line phones favor Bush. However, this particular poll result is skewed. There is no way Kerry dropped 14 points since the last poll. It's an outlier.

There's no directory of cell phone numbers. Reliable, my ass.

I bang my head against a wall here with that, and I'm in NJ. They're either very cynical or not involved.

Young people ARE NOT more conservative. Look at the music they're listening to, the shows they're watching, etc. The popular musicians are all liberals, but all their fans are conservatives? Doesn't make sense.

What happens is, they watch the news and believe the news. Or, they don't even pay attention to the news. They don't know much except we're in a war... an acquaintance, for example, in 2000, thought Bush was an aww shucksy kind of guy--surely he couldn't REALLY be that stupid/dangerous, or why would he be so high in the polls? Just one old white guy against another old white guy...snore.

Today we're in a war, they saw Bush after 9/11, he seemed alright, they're not wasting their time watching the debates (that's what cable is for)....you get the picture.

In my experience, the ones who DO care and ARE registered are voting for Kerry.

total frat-boy Rethugs?

When I was in college, even half the Phish fans were Republicans. I think the more you buy into the media, the more conservative you are, because you're 1) totally consumerist and 2) you're accepting typical sex roles.

It was interesting -- when I was watching the college students Hardball, MOST of the Smirky/Snarly supporters looked either very feminine (lots of shimmer blush, two & three-toned hair) or masculine (heavy brow, hairy, beefier -- straight men with hair-dos) -- not all, but most -- by contrast the Kerry/Edwards supporters seemed to wear less make-up, more non-descript clothing, appeared more androgynous.

I'm very interested in psychological and biological traits that make one identify with a particular political party. I've recently read that totalitarian mindsets and the idea of "splitting and projecting (& scapegoating)" are much more prevalent in conservatives, than liberals. Is there also not something biological that pre-disposes one to a political affiliation?

Maybe I'm making stuff up, and this is totally off topic.

At any rate, I may stage a "mock election," in the poetry class I teach, just to see what the readout is.

I wonder how those same 18-29-year-olds who are voting for that asshole will feel when they find their little butts on a cargo plane on the way to war in Iraq?

The male students in my high school want to kick Ayrab ass.

They don't care that Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 because all Ayrabs are the same.

The idea that they'll be doing the kicking, via the draft, and that the Ayrabs will be kicking back, seems never to have occurred to them.

The connected and the clever know they can beat the draft, and the dim and ordinary can't wait to make someone even less important than them pay for their insignificance.

They'll be shouting "Hoo-ah" and "USA! USA!" right up to the moment -- if they're lucky -- they get medevac-ed out of Iraq.

I went to school in Maine as well. There are a lot of liberal people in Maine, but also a lot of trailer park hicks. The trailer park hicks will usually favor W. They are a weird bunch, to say the least.

I can see Mt. Washington on clear days when I have parking lot duty...

I thought Conway was in NH, in the White Mountains area. Fryeburg area maybe?
I'm from Newport, off of I-95 south of Bangor about 30 miles.

It would be one thing if a poll showed that * had a one or two point lead, but nine?

No chance.

If this is true, I've lost all faith in this country.

mostly southern white young people

My bet is they aren't. Until this year, Dems didn't have a great record of registering younger voters (although the Stepford Youth have always been encouraged to do so).

this is the first time it happened this year, so even he's looking it and going 'huh?'

so he must be kicking ass among other age groups.

Get the facts on who was surveyed, where, and how many were Republicans.

That age group includes an age range with which I am very familiar. In general, the ones with whom I have discussions about current events have no idea what I am talking about, and thus would be more likely to simply parrot the few talking points they here in the predigested electronic media. These folks don't read much of anything, in terms of news or current events, thus it is not at all surprising that they don't know enough to be threatened by another * term in office. For the republicans, this is a real gift, because it demonstrates that ignorance is their most valuable tool.

I wonder what's up with them, though. What in the hell are they responding to?

they have bought into the */Limbaugh/Hannity/Ingraham social Darwinism bullshit. In other words, they seem to think that the US is full of really devious poor, minority, and lazy people who are planning everyday for better ways to rip off the Murkin taxpayer. Their allegiance is based on self-interest, and little more, other than a base hatred of less privileged humans. I feel truly sorry for them, because when the epiphany comes for them, they will have terribly guilty minds.

And not to bother with the rest of the world. Or even their own neighbors. I was ages 6-16 through the eighties, and I am going to be thirty in a few weeks, so I am at the old end of this category. Most of these people were still pretty young into the 90's. So our parents were mostly self-indulgent and we learned it from them. There is such a sense of entitlement, it's hard to explain. I had to train myself out of it (still in progress, of course). Not that there aren't elements of this in other generations - but most of these 18-29 people have never known anything else. They've grown up in a bubble, unless they had special parents who were able to balance out their upbringing with some values (oops, that word belongs to the neo-cons now) in something other than MORE STUFF MORE STUFF!!! Big and Plastic and Shiny stuff that I can Throw Away!

Wow, I just went on a little rant there

:think:

Kinda makes you wonder where they got the idea that self indulgence was the way to go, no? Surely it couldn't have been their parents' growing desire to compete with everyone else for the accumulation of material goods, nahhhh, couldn't be so (sarcasm off). I am lucky, I have two daughters who have demonstrated their willingness to work on understanding how the world works, and how they fit into it. I discovered, purely by accident, that my elder daughter is majoring in same field in which I teach, one of those damnable liberal arts disciplines in which she is unlikely to make any money, but where the potential is present to prod along the concept of social change (not that I'm too proud!).

First off, I love my parents more than anything. And somehow my father, who always said I should be whatever I wanted when I grew up as long as it wasn't a social worker (he really said that), has turned from a Reagan republican to a flaming lib who writes all sorts of letters to the editor and has accompanied me to a few peace marches! And is pleased with my career choice in the nonprofit food rescue business (foodgatherers.org),So the tides can turn for anyone, I guess!

What do you do with the food rescue organization? I am curious because I have always been interested in those orgs.?

hup, two three, four, hup, two three four....

18-21 year olds who still have land lines? or was the cell phone factor taken into account?

Other than that ... The wishy-washy theme may be the culprit here.

My son and his friends only have cell phones. They can't afford a land line too, and with cell to cell deals they call each other anywhere without being charged minutes. He's 23 and graduated this spring. I don't know any of his friends who are voting for w.

The pollsters will never poll them.

Sorry, I had to vent...I just heard that too and I was appalled.

WTF is wrong with these fools?

And hope the ones polled are too clueless to actually vote.

:wtf:

I've seen. Oh well.

Lets bring back the draft!

I've been raising an eyebrow every day that the fantastic news comes in about all the new registrations among young people. From what I've seen, the college campuses have become republican bastions over the last 15 years. I can't help wondering how many of all these "spiffy" new young voters are going to proudly go to the polls and vote for W. Then there are the non-college kids. The ones I've seen are all gung ho for the war and kicking ass. Personally, I hope the young, as in all past elections, stay home this time...unless they are getting cold feet over a draft!

:shrug:

It's a subsample. It's error bars are huge.
Learn some statistics.

Don't pay attention to demographic groups that small.

I saw the same poll and it's just the reverse:

Kerry 47%
Bush 38%

see the numbers after that question is asked.

C'mon ya Koolaid drinkin',grannie grabbers, the desert awaits.

I think a lot of young people favor Kerry. I'm 25 and my husband is 27 and we will both be voting for Kerry. All my friends (who are in their twenties), my 20 year old brother, and my husband's 25 year old brother will all be voting for Kerry. The only person we know that will be voting for Bush is one of my husband's friends, and this guy has been in the military ever since graduating high school ten years ago.

I would think that the ones that are into MTV would be even more likely to vote for Kerry. P. Diddy/Puff Daddy and a lot of other famous people are making a big stink about voting this year. It's obvious that they don't want Bush re-elected.

....where I live, all of my friends that fall into that age group minus one person are voting for Chimpy. I have given up trying to figure out why, I always hear some political spin bullshit line and they won't listen to a word I say.

attended school during the Reagan and Bush administrations as well as a bit of Clinton. They were fed a steady diet of us versus them.

Also kids are FAR more conservative than their parents. There are also far more active Christian kids in this generation.

I remember some articles about college kids in the 60's too and how they were mostly conservative, even though the news was all about the liberals and the counter culture.
I believe that the committed people vote - that's the liberals among the kids - it doesn't take much commitment to vote repub if that's how you've been raised, so those conservative leaning kids don't show up in the same numbers. That's my biased opinion, anyway.

one weird sample. Still has Kerry up even with that.

*ahem*

BULLSHIT!

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=880

October 6-8,2004

....
53% of 18-29 year olds.
....

:shrug:

So I don't have to part of that embarrassing age group.

I guess if they actually go to the polls they'll be more dangerous than embarrassing.

I'm kinda surprised. But I have noticed a lack of younger adults at peace marches and other events...

I am in the 18-29 range, and I only use a cell phone (for over two years now). I am a STRONG KERRY supporter in VA. We will win this state!

Everyone I know who falls in the same range will be voting for Kerry as well.

....there is alot I wanted to say here but it all involved me getting to pissed off.This poll is crap plain and simple.

I wouldn't rely on this methodology in regards to young voters..they are cell phone users (typically)

they're not getting accurate numbers, I can tell you that out of all the poeple my age I know I can only name 3 that have land line phones. So that's about 1.5% off the top of my head...I've personally gotten 75 of my friends registered and they're all voting blue on the 2nd

I do have to say though that the next group of young voters is HEAVILY republican. I've seen this trend growing a lot over the last 4 years since I've been politically active. The "generation" behind mine is so button up republican it's scary, hopefully that changes when they get to college, but I fear it wont.

But it will only matter if young people vote, which they usually don't.

Don't kill the messanger -- it's true. Youth voting records are atrocious.

Here's what I found:

This is good evidence thatKerry is consolidating his base with 83% of support among Democrats, 88% of African-Americans, 79% of Jews, and 53% of 18-29 year olds. Kerry leads 2 to 1 in union households and is attaining 65% among singlevoters."

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=880

www.zogby.com

the story is on the home page, & continues if you hit the link.

it was released today.

My 21 year old and all of his friends are voting Kerry. He's coming home from the city that day to vote. Some of his other friends are going home from college to vote. They were all afraid the absentee ballots would be tampered with.

These young people are very aware of the war and the draft. They are also concerned about the huge deficit that they are inheriting.

Most young people in college are concerned that there will be no jobs for them when they graduate. That's after having to spend at least $50,000 to $100,000 for an education.

If these poll numbers are correct, then why do so many young people show up at college campuses to hear Kerry speak?

since the war began, and don't know why it is. All my son's friends are in that age group, and ALL of them are voting Bush. When I try to determine why, all I get from them are the usual soundbites. It's been very frustrating.

Okay...

Surely not Earth. 'Cause on Earth people my age are coming out in force against the Chimperor. Who the hell are these pollsters trying to fool?

white kids with no $$ cares are for Bush. They are young and dumb and channeling their parents. White jock males are for Bush.

Concentrate on the minority youth vote and the low income and or hip secular youth vote.

Most political scientists think, with some good reason, that 19-29 year-olds tend to be libertarian. Parts of Bush's platform may be attractive to them. Whether or not they'll vote is an open question. Gore and Bush split the 18-29 crowd in 2000. Previous polls have shown Kerry with a 2 to 1 advantage in the 18 to 29 crowd. My guess is of the young people that vote, a majority of them will vote for Kerry.

to court and educate the youth?

As far as I can tell, the GOP has been trying to get at the youth of America from Sunday school on for as long as I can remember. The fusion of "loving Jesus" and loving Republicans in office is a big goal of theirs. Over time, this will have an effect. It's a very forward thinking, albeit creepy, strategy. Church in my town seems more like a Bush commercial than a true understanding of living life in the footsteps of Jesus.

But what has the left done? In my opinion, taken the youth for granted. Basically, I think they just rely on the "anti-establishment" sentiment to somehow translate into votes for Democratic candidates. Rather, I think they just don't vote in sufficient numbers.

"Rock the Vote" shouldn't be the slogan. Rather, I think it should be "Arm yourself with knowledge". Voting should just be a beneficial side effect of youth who know what the fuck is going on and want to do something about it. As an aside, I don't think anyone should vote unless they try to know what the fuck is going on...hell, this would eliminate most Republicans I know from voting - thank Gawd.

So, in other words, the Dems and lefties have a lot of work to do if they want to make future gains with our current crops of lambs and chicks.

if the churches did not allow themselves to be used as a Bush PR machine. There's a long, honorable liberal theological tradition, and the Dems (especially the intellectual Dems who populate forums like this one) have either ignored or mocked them for 30 years.

Nothing says liberalism has to fight against religion all day every day, especially on the question of youth education.

one guy (jock), after seeing my K/E button on my backpack, went on some weird spiel about how we shouldn't "change direction" by voting out Bush. I reminded him how we've "changed direction" in many of our armed conflicts, and specifically how it changed five (or is it four?) times in Vietnam. It didn't seem to get through to him, and it seemed like the only thing he cared about.

Another girl, who I work with, is a big Bush supporter, but when I and a friend asked her why she was a Republican, she said because her parents were. She also believed that you could only vote for whichever party you belonged to, because only her party's candidates appeared on her ballot. needless to say, the only time she'd voted before was in a primary.

but yeah, anyway, while people my age might be more energized for left wing candidates, more of people my age probably vote republican, and I can tell you why: youth groups. basically dating services for teenagers with something against a backdrop of religiousness (did I say dating service? more like a "cool kids fucking club").

Lots of people in that age group only have cell phones. Therefore, they can't be polled.

I am SO embarrassed of my generation. Sadly, I think it might well be true. However, I live in a very conservative area, so I acknowledge my judgement is skewed.

:wtf:

They totally believe in his war as long as they aren't the ones to fight it. Zogby evidently got ahold of them. My co-worker's son is totally for Bush's war but his grandparents have totally assured his college costs.

this age group has the most to lose over the next 4 years. Worst job market since the Great Depression. How many in that age group have health care? How about the cost of tuition? Don't these things mean anything to them?

When I was a kid it was "don't trust anybody over 30". Now it's the reverse? There's some serious 1984 shit going on here.

Gyre

and his prescription drug program and thank him for keeping us safe from Canada.

In that case, I believe it. Although I sure as hell hope this is only a Southern thing. My husband and I are in the middle age range of our group of friends, say 27-35. All the ones under 30 are voting for Bush to the best of my knowledge. All the ones over 30 are voting for Kerry. I think it's cause they really don't remember the R and B1 years and don't have a clue exactly how bad things really can get. Also, all of our friends are either civilian law enforcement or active duty Army. They don't make sense--members of the union but voting for union haters!? It blows my mind. My brother and cousins though, all under 30, are all voting Kerry. I think I'm part of the last liberal Southern family. I'm working on the next generation though lol. My 7yo tells me, don't worry Mom, Kerry's gonna win, every time I start yelling at the tv lol. :D

even from Zogby.