Approval? ZOGBY 49, CNN 47, AP 46, ARG 45, NWK 45, Econ 44,CBS 43

TruthIsAll

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Wed Oct-13-04 10:32 PM
Original message

Approval? ZOGBY 49, CNN 47, AP 46, ARG 45, NWK 45, Econ 44,CBS 43

Got toast?

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

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MissouriTeacher

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Wed Oct-13-04 10:33 PM
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1. 43%?

Good God!

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Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

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Wed Oct-13-04 10:33 PM
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2. Chimpy's going down

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iconoclastic cat

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Wed Oct-13-04 10:35 PM
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3. "Hey, Dad! Look out below! Here I come!"

Splat.

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Doosh

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Wed Oct-13-04 10:36 PM
Response to Original message

4. lol

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Renew Deal

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Wed Oct-13-04 10:36 PM
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5. Wow

I think it could get uglier if people are resigned to Bush losing.

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TruthIsAll

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Wed Oct-13-04 11:07 PM
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6. Will he hit 40% before 11/2?

I bet you at least one poll goes there.

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RafterMan

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Wed Oct-13-04 11:09 PM
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7. Approval doesn't matter

Look at the reelect number: it's lower than all those.

Pass the butter.

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GainesT1958

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Wed Oct-13-04 11:10 PM
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8. The distant runble you hear...

Is the sound of all the ground under Dub giving way...and it's getting louder...what we may be witnessing, folks, is classically known as a....

OKAY...I WON'T say THAT 'L-word" just yet--don't want to jinx Kerry!:eyes:

B-)

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Arugula Latte

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Wed Oct-13-04 11:23 PM
Original message

Could it be a certain geological phenomenon

that was immortalized by Stevie Nicks years ago? ;-)

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iwillalwayswonderwhy

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Wed Oct-13-04 11:29 PM
Response to Original message

11. and covered by none other than the Dixie Chicks?

teehee

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you forgot Poland

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Wed Oct-13-04 11:12 PM
Response to Original message

9. kick-a-poo

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Awsi Dooger

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Wed Oct-13-04 11:23 PM
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10. More important than the debate

These are tremendous numbers for Kerry, virtually the equivalent of another block of undecideds.

I wonder what Zogby is doing all alone at the top? I've never studied his approval ratings as opposed to other polls.

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pabloseb

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Wed Oct-13-04 11:45 PM
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12. Those are not all polls, unfortunately

I'm a strong Kerry supporter and I hope that Kerry wins as much or more than anybody here. But I think we should be objective. There are many polls out there with give * a JA of 50% or even a bit more. Whoever ran that election model handpicked the most convenient polls. For example, Rasmussen has JA at 52% (and he may have a slight Bush bias, but some of the polls chosen may have a slight Kerry bias as well).

The election will be very close. I'm all for hope and optimism, but not for unfounded overconfidence...

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TruthIsAll

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Wed Oct-13-04 11:56 PM
Response to Reply #12

13. Don't be blinded by Repuke polls...

Bush is in worse shape than you think.

And it won't be close. Unless Diebold votes.

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Awsi Dooger

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Wed Oct-13-04 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #12

14. I'm sure there's truth to that, but Rasmussen is not a good example

His approval question is a generic "Do you approve or disapprove of George Bush?" as opposed to a more specific job approval question.

But yesterday TIA quoted Bush's approval average as 49.25%, and now these numbers suggest much lower. I'm not sure if he changed the sample of polls or what happened. I can't believe a new flurry of approval numbers came out at the same time and all with much lower figures.

Welcome to DU, pabloseb!:)

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TruthIsAll

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Thu Oct-14-04 07:17 AM
Response to Reply #14

15. I did not show ALL the poll numbers. Bush is at 48.38%

Edited on Thu Oct-14-04 07:20 AM by TruthIsAll

That's his 11-poll average which is what I show on the site.

I "cherry-picked" 7 of his lowest polls to fit on the title-line and to show that he is going down. Big Deal.

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Awsi Dooger

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Fri Oct-15-04 03:55 AM
Response to Reply #15

18. OK, that makes sense

Agreed, no big deal

I knew you averaged 11 polls, but I didn't realize there were also 11 sets of approval ratings..

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TruthIsAll

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Thu Oct-14-04 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #12

16. Not true. The Election Model has had 11 polls from the beginning.

I took 7 out of 11 to illustrate Bush's freefall. Of that there is no doubt. He's at a 48.38% average in the 11 polls.

And only 7 fit on the title line.

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DaveSZ

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Fri Oct-15-04 02:43 AM
Response to Reply #16

17. kick

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fujiyama

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Fri Oct-15-04 03:59 AM
Response to Original message

19. Why is Zogby's so high?

Edited on Fri Oct-15-04 04:01 AM by fujiyama

It seems weird because Zogby earlier had Bush at lower levels than many others. 49 really seems to be the outlier here.

I really doubt Bush will win the popular vote. What worries me though is him peeling off IA, WI, and/or NM...even if Kerry wins OH...That and all the talk of fraud....God, I'm losing too much sleep over this.

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Awsi Dooger

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Fri Oct-15-04 04:13 AM
Response to Reply #19

21. Zogby is not the high number

TruthIsAll listed only 7 of the 11 polls he uses, to emphasize Bush's downward trend. In a response to my post in this thread, he indicated Bush's average approval rating in the 11 polls is 48.38%.

That means the missing 4 polls average above 53%. I have not seen anything that high recently, but I'm admittedly too involved with my job. Let's hope those high numbers are old and will soon (free)fall in line.

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fujiyama

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Fri Oct-15-04 05:38 AM
Response to Reply #21

22. Since the debates

Edited on Fri Oct-15-04 05:40 AM by fujiyama

I don't recall seeing a poll from any source showing his approval above 50%.

Looks like it's averaging around 46-47. I really don't see him winning the popular vote, but the swing states do worry me a bit (IA, WI, NM....way too close...and no margin of error if Kerry must win OH).

There is a possibility that he could lose all three states (or even two of them and win OH) by a small margin but still win the popular vote and lose the EC. I really hope that won't be the case.

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TruthIsAll

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Fri Oct-15-04 08:26 AM
Response to Reply #22

23. Bush will get 47%-48%. With 2% to 3rd parties, Kerry gets 50-51%

Edited on Fri Oct-15-04 08:27 AM by TruthIsAll

That's a 2-4% win. It's almost impossible for him to lose the EC with a 2% popular vote margin.

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sandnsea

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Fri Oct-15-04 04:06 AM
Response to Original message

20. Likeability

Are you watching likeabilty? That's the one I'm interested in now because I think these undecideds will swing on the intangible, popular opinion and sense of who America likes.

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kevin881

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Fri Oct-15-04 08:28 AM
Response to Original message

24. TIA see Zogby today, Bush 4% lead. What do you make of this?

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DaveinMD

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Fri Oct-15-04 08:29 AM
Response to Reply #24

25. its one weird day

three day rolling tracks poll about 300 people a day. That leaves the track vulnerable to an outlier day because the daily sample is so small.

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in_cog_ni_to

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Fri Oct-15-04 08:31 AM
Response to Reply #24

26. I just received a NEW Zogby poll to answer today

so I suspect the NEXT poll will have Kerry way up. ;)

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DeaconBlues

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Fri Oct-15-04 08:38 AM
Response to Original message

27. I'm looking forward to seeing these numbers dive into the low thirties

after the election. The American people can't stand a loser.

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