Expect an uptick in tomorrows Zogby and Rasmussen polls for Kerry

59millionmorons

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Fri Oct-15-04 08:37 PM
Original message

Expect an uptick in tomorrows Zogby and Rasmussen polls for Kerry

Edited on Fri Oct-15-04 08:37 PM by demdem

The reason Bush ticked up in todays Rasmussen is that Kerry's good 10/11 day fell off, but tomorrow Bush's good 10/12 and on Saturday his good 10/13 will drop off. So unless Bush can replace those to +5 day's Kerry could tie or even pull ahead by Monday. Same with Zogby Bush will have two days of good numbers fall off this weekend and by Monday or Tuesday Kerry could be tied or ahead again assuming Bush doesn't get big numbers over the weekend.

Bush Kerry
10/11 44.1 48.0
10/12 50.5 45.2
10/13 50.9 44.5
10/14 45.6 46.8

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jefferson_dem

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Fri Oct-15-04 08:39 PM
Response to Original message

1. Thanks for that cogent and uplifting analysis.

I'm thinking you're right. The "assuming Bush doesn't get big numbers over the weekend" is a big caveat, however. Recall how that's worked in the past, with those chimp-friendly weekend numbers.

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59millionmorons

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Fri Oct-15-04 08:45 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. If

The reason I say if is because as you can see yesterday Kerry was ahead in the one day sample, now we could get more day's like this or we could get more +5's for Bush. But if Bush only gets a +2-3 this weekend then the race will still tighten. Of course if Kerry get's more day's like yesterday he could take the lead.

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cindyw

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Fri Oct-15-04 08:55 PM
Response to Original message

3. Where did you get those numbers? Is this Rasmussen?

How did you get the one day sample numbers for Rasmussen? Is that part of the premium service?

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59millionmorons

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Fri Oct-15-04 08:59 PM
Response to Reply #3

4. Here

scroll down a little

http://www.mydd.com/

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