New Newsweek Poll has Bush 50, Kerry 44 among likely voters

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6260444/site/newsweek/

Not encouraging, although there is one incredibly encouraging snippet within the article:

Kerry now leads Bush 57 percent to 36 percent among those who identify themselves as first-time voters.

counts.

Newsweek is all over the place anyhow. Suffice it to say it's a close race, that's all we'll know until election day ... if were lucky. :hi:

Gore got 48% of the vote in 2000, any poll that shows him lower then that can be thrown out.

Not as bad as it appeared to be.

and they favor Kerry 57-36.

if turnout is massive Ohio will go blue??

It's in my gut. I believe.

Why? Because I live in conservative-leaning southwestern Ohio, and work primarily with young people, in a bar/restaurant, and they're all voting for the first time, and save for one out of 32 employees between the ages of 18 and 25, they're voting Kerry.

It's the draft, stupid. It's truly become their number-one issue, regardless of Ed Gillespie's whiny threats to shut down this dialog. And that's why I'm encouraged, and remain optimistic, that Ohio will be BLUE.

Unfortunately, we're going to need more than Ohio, so I hope people are hearing the same things in states like New Mexico, Nevada, even Colorado, and West Virginia.

without capturing Ohio.

...they are nothing but NeoCon shills.

like having Bush winning women and Kerry winning men, which is nonsensical. BTW, among RVs, it's 48-46 Bush, and they interviewed 4 percent more Repukes in the sample. I suspect the disparity is even worse among LVs.

dunce who wants to roll back their rights.

it's a worthless piece of shit, completely disregard it.

if you want real news, and always has AFAIK. It's in the same league as "People" but pretends at national news.

Gyre

I think the devil is in the details... Kerry leads among new voters, Bush's approval rating continues to plummet; voters feel Kerry won the debates by rather large margins, with one third of them saying the debates will have a moderate to high impact on their vote; Kerry is seen as more intelligent and informed than Bush.

I think it's become entirely unpredictable what voters will actually do in the privacy of the voting booth, and I still think Bush is in for one helluva big surprise when he's fired by the American people on November 2.

Just posting this poll made me feel icky... but reading the details made me feel fabulous. :D

very concerned about his approval rating in the 40's. The reg vs likely vote number is irrelavant this election year - as this will be the year of many new (and thus unlikely) voters.

oversample Repubs by 4 points? Explain THAT one to me.


Whatever, though. We need to play like we're behind anyway.

And we saw who won that election.

all the signs point to Kerry if yo uread them.

The details firmly point to a big surprise for Bush on election day, in my opinion.

which i don't expect them to be. i still think bush and his diebold friends and his secretary of state friends will find SOME WAY to steal this election. if they don't, it will be a miracle.

Poll watchers, attorneys-on-call... the DNC is watching the electoral fraud issue like a hawk this time around.

I have a bit of a feeling that we won't know who won this thing by November 3 or the next day, and that the Republicans will fight state-by-state, county-by-county, paralyzing the actual results and claiming premature victory. It's a Karl Rove hallmark, and 2000 wasn't the first time he used this tactic.

It won't work this time, because we're going to actually fight this time.

Right? God, I hope so.

If the Repubs try that crap again there will be a huge fight. Kerry has 500 lawyers on the ground in Florida. Gore was late for the battle. Bush knew in 2000 that the election was rigged in Florida and had the advantage of being already prepared. Now we are as well. I also would not be surprised to see violence if there a repeat of blatant voter disenfranchising. I'd be pissed if someone told me my vote didn't count and I knew it was because they didn't like who I voted for.

to seabeyond on this thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1087199

That's enough of that.Start Kicking back hard.....

Missouri. We can do this.

"....48 percent of all voters say they would reelect Bush while 46 percent prefer Kerry.

Removing Nader, who draws just 1 percent of the vote, bumps the Kerry-Edwards ticket up to 47 percent, reducing the incumbent’s statistically insignificant lead to one point and suggesting that the independent candidate could pull a small number of votes away from the Democrat on Nov. 2. Before the debates began on Sept. 30, the Republican ticket held a commanding 11-point lead."


When they say "all voters" I think they mean registered voters. The writing is unclear, but the note at the bottom says they polled 1004 registered voters.....then they sliced and diced to an unknown # of likely voters and then sliced and diced some more for the other subsets in the 50-44 section....

"For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,004 registered voters aged 18 and older between Oct. 14 and 15 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points."

Likely Voters?? There's no info at all on the subsets being used...
The overall MOE is +/-4 %...The subsets must be pretty small and their MOE's pretty big.

Kerry leading with men and Bush leading with women tells you all that you need to know. Ignore both the bad and the good in this one because it's just not credible.

These polls are making me laugh. This Newsweek poll has Bush leading among women and Kerry leading among men. Now, I know that living in America has been like living in the Twilight Zone for the past four years, but come on, it's not that bizarre.

And correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the registration deadline to vote already passed in most states? So why are they still separating RV's from LV's? The media is going to keep the race as close as possible right up until the election. They were wrong in 2000, and they're wrong now.

I believe Bush was only up by 2%. And as we all know, likely voters leaves out the first time voters you site above. So cheer up!

I was looking but couldn't find them.

This looks like another one of those 38%-30% deals.

Esp. since the Time poll is so different.

gap.

354 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
317 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
284 Independents (plus or minus 6)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1087865

They have to tame their self created beast somehow! Lies, Lies and more Lies!