Battleground states

I went to Time Magazine's battleground states link and did a little math. I am trying to be objective. You'll notice that there are differing poll numbers on some of the states. The texts at the bottom right are very informative. So using the numbers from the first poll mentioned for each state here is what I come up with:

I have Kerry winning WA,OR,MN,WI,MI,OH,PA,and 3 electoral votes from ME.

I have Bush winning CO,NV,AZ,IA,MO,AR,WV and 1 electoral vote from ME.

I can't call NM or FL. Now for the good news/bad news.

Time has Kerry with 168 electoral votes locked up. My total in the battlegrounds comes to 99 for a total of 267 (3 short). Time gives Bush 181 locked plus my total of 54 for 239. If Bush wins Florida he still needs 4 more. So this race could actually come down to New Mexico and its 5 electoral votes. The other smoking gun is if Colorado's electoral change passes it is put into play IMMEDIATELY. I'd try to get into the totals if that happens but I'd just get a headache.

I welcome all feedback on my numbers. Here's the link to Time's battleground states site:

www.time.com/time/election2004/battleground

Also, I am pleased to be going to Wisconsin on Oct 23 to canvass for Kerry! I will be in either Kenosha or Racine. I live in Illinois and we're solid Kerry country so I can leave with no worries.

I have Kerry winning Wa, Or, Mn, Mi, Pa, Me, Ia, and NM
I have Bush winning Az, Mo, Ark, WVa
I have Fl, Ohio, Wi, Co and Nv as toss ups.

Thanks for responding. I admit that OH was my most optimistic entry. Can't agree with you on IA, think it's gone. I know the race has tightened in CO but I don't think it's enough. Of course if that electoral change passes, who the hell knows.

Nevada is filling fast with Seniors and minorities.

Go Kerry!

I love your enthusiasm! I would like nothing better than to have my numbers incorrect as long as Kerry wins! Thanks for responding.

state that has voted DEM for four straight elections.

I also like Kerry to take back NV (voted Clinton twice)
NM will not be all that close...about +4 for Kerry (despite Charley Cook).

No question in my model that Kerry wins WA, OR, MN, MI, PA

Currently I have Kerry winning all the Gore States (incl IA, WI, NM) plus NH for 264.

Most likely "winning margin states": OH, NV, FL, CO (split EV). Secondary "takeaways: AR, MO, AZ, WV