Proof that Gallup is off the mark

"Republicans seem more enthusiastic about the election (77 percent) than do Democrats (65 percent) and thus more likely to vote, as reflected in Gallup's likely voter model." - CNN

This is ridiculous. More Dems voted in 2000 than Reps. In 2002, it was about equal and in terms of total votes for Congress the Dems barely lost. This time the enthusiasm to retire * is the greatest I've seen in my lifetime, which spans several Presidential elections.

Don't be fooled by "Republican enthusiasm."

:kick: Folks need to see this.

people are pathetic.

U.S. Gallup Polls- Conditioning for Vote Rigging?

<http://www.independent-media.tv/item.cfm?fmedia_id=9141&fcategory_desc=Media%20Lies%20and%20Right%20Wing%20Bias>

"While most political analysts predict the largest Democratic voter turn-out in history, Gallup is predicting in their methodology that Republicans will be 7-8% more of the total electorate than Democrats actually voting on election day."

"James Clifton who bought the Gallup organization is a big Republican donor. He gave thousands to Right Wing Republican Georgia Senate candidate Herman Cain. (See http://www.opensecrets.org) Cain ran as a huge backer of cutting taxes for the wealthiest Americans. This is essentially the same tax position supported with vigor by the Bush-Cheney ticket."

These people are scum.

I wonder if by enthusiasm he really meant that republicans expressed love and kisses for their candidate - god bless you mr. president sort of stuff -- you know, like the questioners at those "town hall meetings he holds"

Democrats would express their "enthusiasm" in a slightly different way, shall I say - &*^%%$$$$# that *

on do their damnest to steal another election.

You're reasoning amounts to this:

1. More Democrats voted in 2000 than Republicans.
2. Roughly the same number of Democrats and Republicans voted in 2002.
3. Enthusiasm to retire Bush is the greatest I've seen in my lifetime.
4. Therefore Gallup is wrong.

There are two problems with this. First, you assume that behavior in 2000 and 2002 will be a predictor of behavior in 2004, even though, by your own admission, voter behavior in 2000 wasn't a good predictor of voter behavior in 2002 (since Dem voters in 2002 weren't as excited as they were in 2000). Second, you rely on your own personal observations regarding, to use your words, "enthusiasm to retire Bush" without considering for a moment that the people you come into contact with may not be a scientifically valid sample.

do you work for Gallup or something? If you don't see that lots of people are quite ready to throw Bush out of the White House, then you haven't been paying attention. According to your reasoning...

Record turnout at the Dem. primaries is meaningless...
Kerry breaking fundraising records and beating Bush in every quarter this year is meaningless...
The biggest peaceful protest in NY history is meaningless...

And, not that this matters to you, other DUers have confronted you with the facts about party registration at least twice today (Dems 33%, Rep. 29%), and you still claim, despite all evidence to the contrary, that Gallup is accurate?

Make sure there aren't any moths flying around in your skull.

republican voters?

I know you didn't ask me but I demolish Gallup's model and then offer an explanation for their "cooked" polls...

more Repubs will vote than Dems in 2004. In the last three presidential elections, Repubs have never outnumbered Dems. Zogby has said a number of times polls that oversample Repubs are dubious.

well below 50 percent (47 percent in the latest polls) indicate that the desire to retire Bush may in fact be a valid observation.

I live in one of the Florida counties that removed 37,000 votes from the elections in 2000 and in this area among Democrats, the desire to remove Bush is very strong.

So strong that in fact, Blakcs just sued the Supervisor of ELections because they are trying to pull the same crap that they did in 2000, removing newly registered democrats forms based on claims they were not completel and within days they conceded and placed these voters back on the rolls. In many places the minority vote has never been so energized and dedicated to removing the person who won due to their disenfranchisement.

There is little evidence that fits the claim that more Republicans are lile;y to vote than Democrats, and in fact a number of polls has indicated the opposite. Several polls have indicated that only sixty percent or less of Republicans are enthusiatic about this election while the same polls placed Democratic enthusiasm during this election season in the eighties.

On the other hand recent polls of minority voters have indicated that support for Bush among the minorities who supported him in 2000 has been greatly reduced and in some cases even reversed.

The Arab America voters have virtually reversed their position on Bush with a greater percentage of this voting bloc supporting Kerry than the Jewish vote.

In Florida, Bush's support among Cuban Americans has dropped almost 20 percent below the threshold of 83 percent of this voting bloc that the Bush campaign MUST have in order to win in Florida. Most polls in this state do not poll minorities in the actual proportion that they represent of the population.

On the whole, there is absolutely no evidence that Republicans will outvote Democrats by the roughly 25 percent that Gallop suggests.

Gallop has been polling 39 percent Republicans and 30 percent Democrats, roughly a 25 percent difference. Nothing in the recent past suggests such a gap between Democrats and Republicans is valid.

I have been phone banking lists of registered democrats in my area .covering 13 polling districts in what is a very Republican county, with Republicans outnumbering democrats 2 to 1.

In every contact with democrats, I have to use a scale asking them if they are strongly leaning towards the democratic candidate. or leaning towards the republican. or have not made up their mind and the two possibilities of just leaning towards either candidate. out of the hundreds of calls I have placed, I have only spoken to ONE democrat who was not leaning towards Kerry in the strongest degree of the scale I used. They were undecided. NOT ONE democrat supported Bush. This surprised me, as this is in the bible belt, and many democrats are also religious. Many are socially conservative, bit as I said, I did not speak to one democrat who even suggested that they might give Bush another look. All but one seemed to want Bush retired. That one was uncomitted, but stated they were a lifelong democrat.

Then I have to assume you didn't see it or you believe it's correct....


Gallup's model of who will show up at the polls is based on flawed party identification analysis...


According to Pew Research who has done a longitudunal study of party identification Democrats hold a 33% -29% edge in party identification therefore to do a presidential poll which is based on 40% Republicans showing up at the polls versus 31% Democrats is absurd...


Here for the third fucking time are the results from Pew Research's Party ID study...

http://people-press.org/commentary/display.php3?AnalysisID=95

Is that now the results from Gallops state polls will place Kerry with a firm lead in both the election projection and electoral vote.com projections for the electoral college. Bush lad by ten electoral votes in election projection, but the recent changes in state polls will bring Kerry into the lead there and in may even bring Kerry up to 270 in electoral vote. com. With such a large lead in the national vote, the possibility for Kerry to be ahead of Bush in the electoral college would be difficult and for him to actually be leading Bush would be impossible. In order to be close in the electoral college, the candidate have to be somewhere within five percent of each other in the popular vote.

Such differences between the two candidates would necessitate Bush being winning in the electoral college according to CNN's own polls but in fact, the most recent CNN electoral college projections have had Bush finally fall below the 270 threshhold. Since CNN is basing its projections on Gallop polls, the discrepancy makes it probable that the national poll is way skrewed towards REpublicans.


Another pollster seems to have the most likely balance between Republicans and Democrats when it does its polls. American Research Group polls show a steady 35 percent REpublican and 38 percent Democrat which seems to be closest to the actual breakdown of registered voters in the country. ARG does not pre suppose a certain percentage likely to vote as Gallop does but invariably when they do random polls they come up ewith something close to this three percent difference in all of their polls.

If Bush wins the pop vote by eight percentage points he's on his way to winning four hundred plus Electoral College Votes..


Either Gallup's polling is correct or CNN's Electoral College polling is correct...


The results from the two polls can not logically coexist with one another....


I have no idea who is going to win this race but based on my study of the available literature on polling and exit polls from previous elections I can say with some certainty that there will not be nine percentage more Republicans showing up at the polls than Democrats...

76 and 00


Both times Gallup has picked the wrong winner...


Margin Of Error, Margin Of Schmerror....


If I picked the wrong winner in a football game but I was close to the spread I still lose the bet...

Gallup is not God....

2000 was a Presidential year and 2002 was an off year election. The effects of 9/11 were still being felt and we were about to go to war in Iraq. Who was motivated to vote? Of course there were fewer Dem voters.

2004 is different. Don't you think there are more people who want Bush out than voted against him in 2000? If you don't, then think again.

I have a pretty good idea of the number of new Dems registered and, no, I'm not telling you.

You are correct...


Dems usually do better in presidential elections than midterms because the Democrats have more casual voters...

You have posted this repreatedly and more eloquently.

I just see people getting depressed reading this trash so I posted again. Few people seem to get it.

of course party id is not a constant like race, gender, or education and is not part of the census...

It would probably be illegal for the census to ask what your party affiliation is...


However there is never been an election where more Republicans show up at the polls than Democrats and that is exactly what they are suggesting with a likely voter model that includes 40% Republicans and 31% Democrats...

A much greater percentage of Democrats will vote this time. That is obvious. Almost everybody, even conservative commentators, acknowledges the fervency of Democrats this year. That doesn't even factor in the big advantage in new registrants. I believe the Democratic party will turn out to vote at a rate that is at least 2 to 3 percentage points greater than the GOP. I believe that GOP voters will also increase their turnout. But the anger and desperation that most Dems feel is what will drive the Democratic Party's better showing.

A poll like that, if widely distributed the way Gallup's is, can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, as we all know. But a huge portion of the general public does NOT know.

That's why we need to keep active making sure the truth gets out to as many people as possible.

On edit: I meant the first poster was absolutely right, not the one just above this one.

believe that 89% of registered republicans will come out to vote and that only 81% of registered Democrats will come out to vote. There is no historical basis for that belief. Not gonna happen.

You nailed it...

By Gallup coming up with a flawed poll that shows a sizable Bush lead that doesn't really exist they can demoralize enough Democrats not to vote thus ensuring the results they incorrectly predicted in the first place...

Pretty sneakey....


Or if this approach doesn't work they can come up with real numbers close to the election to ensure their viability for the next election so they can try to swing it again...

Very sneakey...

if Gallup shows the race narrowing over the final 2 weeks, this will energize the republicans to turn out. Look at the 2000 Gallup numbers over the final 2 weeks.

C ertainly N ot N ews

They aren't in the business of trying to guage reality- they're in it to promote their causes. They have been for decades- and anyone who doesn't believe that should take a look at both their track record and the right wing (and often fundamentalist) groups that they are connected with.