Kerry is at his best when he's perceived as the underdog. He fights harder and supporters stay hungrier.
AWOL is at his WORST when he thinks he's going to win. He repulses voters when they perceive him as the arrogant screeching buffoon he is. The idea of being the overdog alone adds to the perception.
Either candidate would benefit from being a few points behind at this stage of the game. Being the frontrunner means more scrutiny, people asking themselves are they SURE they want that person in office. Also people get sick of the frontrunner, especially if he's the incumbent and the alternative is acceptable.
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