Who cares what national polls say, it is the state polls that matter

And Kerry is looking fairly good where it matters. Kerry could tie at 269 EVs by winning all of the states he currently leads in and IA and NM, without Florida or Ohio! Check it out: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

A tie would be broken by a House vote. Guess who they'd vote for?
We need 270--and I think we'll get them.

it really would not be one. CO voters are likely to pass proportional EV splitting which means either 4 or 5 more votes for Kerry. And an EC win without either OH or FL. Which is interesting.

They vote for it Nov. 2nd and it is automatically to effect this election? Have you seen polls indicating that COians support it?

since they think Kerry will win.

RELIABLE national polls are much more significant than state polls, which are notoriously unreliable. Zogby's state polls, for example, are frequently pathetic. Tons of examples from 2000 and 2002. The offshore betting outfits I deal with no longer make significant moves in statewide odds based on movement in state polls. Damn, I might add.

There are too many states that mirror the national mood to dismiss a national trend. State polls lag. IF Bush has gained nationally since last Thursday, it will show up in the state polls eventually. That may already be the case, if we consider the new Colorado polls.

I agree with a theme on CNN tonight during Aaron Brown's show: Kerry is spending far too much time reacting to Bush instead of initiating his own agenda, acting like he's certain to be president. That has been my beef all campaign, too much of an overlearning of the Willie Horton lesson from 1988, responding to everything. We have an ad here in Nevada now, that starts with a flash screen proclaiming,"Kerry responds to Bush's latest attack." Screw that idiocy. Define the issues ourselves.

At least Kerry was wise enough not to apologize for the Mary Cheney reference. That would have extended the "issue" and looked somewhat weak.

Bush winning, but Kerry could still win. Imagine a scenario where there are three states. One red, one blue and a swing state. Imagine these results.

Red state: Bush 60% Kerry 40%
Blue state: Bush 45% Kerry 55%
Swing state: Bush 48% Kerry 52%

Now in this scenario Kerry wins the election because he gets the electoral votes of the blue state and the swing state. Bush if a national poll was taken of these Bush would win the poll 51% 49%.

So take heart and watch the battleground state polls if you must. I thought it was funny on Aaron Brown that they raised the idea of Bush being Gored. While I would rather that we win by a decided margin, I would not be unhappy about Bush getting some of what happened to Gore.