Over on MyDD.com, Oregan is

red now.

Did I accidentally toggle this state to red on my browser, or did it change today?

Thanks in Advance.

They are counting this riley poll, which basically sampled way more
Repukes than demos, which doesn't represent the true demographic of Oregon.

Bush by 5

Obviously that poll is bullshit, but so is taking Oregon for granted. It figures to be very close. I expressed similar concerns on DU before the Kulongowski governor's race in Oregon during 2002, but everyone told me to cool it, he would win by close to double digits. Turned out to be a latenight come from behind cliffhanger.

I've heard nothing from my pol friends around the state to change my mind. The former Nader vote is going back to DEM strongly and the two party registration is about the same proportion as in 2000. Don't see big movement to GOP here.

Namely Michigan and Pennsylvania. I know those are comparitive biggies.

Whenever I get comfortable about Oregon, some poll comes out with a very close race to Bush in the lead.

Yesterday I was going over recent state Democratic percentages to make projections. Oregon has not voted more than 47.15% Democratic (Clinton '96) in 20 years or more. I can't plug in that number and call it a cinch.

No Democrat since '88 has received more than 47.15% in Oregon. Dukakis won Oregon with 51+% in '88.

Oregon is one of a few states where the Democratic voter registrations were being torn up. I don't trust that at all.

I've registered an assload of young people in Ashland (one of the most liberal Oregon cities) and only two have recived their ballots. I tried to call the elections clerk, but was unable to get a hold of her.
I do think Oregon will break for Kerry however, down here we have the Medford Machine which is working hard as ever doing anything we can for the Senator (and with good results, even though we will loose Medford, it will be by a small margin).

I'm a hardcore non-tinfoiler at DU. 99% of conspiracy theories I hear or read about are just plain crazy. I don't think Bush is evil, just corrupt, naively ideological, and incompetent. By DU standards I'm pretty damn mainstream America. But I'll tell you this:

You need to work your asses off in Oregon. You'll may need as much as 53% of the honest vote there just to "take" the state.

I don't trust that BBV stuff, or any other vote-counting technology that can be manipulated without leaving a paper trail. There are enough "true believers" on the far right who are politically active enough to seek out and secure positions of responsibility for vote counting--and these people would readily cheat for God's Chosen President over a liberal, ex-communicated Jane Fonda-stooge like Kerry. They'd do it and think they were saving America.

The fix may not be in. The whole effort may not be coordinated from on high. But there are people who understand the president's interests lie in winning this election no matter what means they use. These people will gladly act on their own because the Republican leadership for twenty years has been actively encouraging a culture war mentality among their more extreme followers.

They'll move in Oregon, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida to jimmy this election in their direction. They don't have to win all those states, but turning just one of them in a very close election would be enough to make a difference.

your fears are misplaced. All our ballots are recountable and our Secretary of State Bill Bradbury has been on top of the BBV issue for a long time. A friend and I spoke with Howard Dean about this at PSU on October 9th, and he's convinced that we're one of the safest states in the nation in terms of voting "irregularities."

If people believe that, then they'll believe anything. Oregon will go for Kerry by 7-10 points. Mark my words.