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There is a surprisingly strong incumbency effect in House races, unfortunately. And since the House's real power is the power of the purse- federal taxation and spending- it tends to reflect where the country is on economic policy more than social policy. On the other hand, its majority is always being corrupted by 'business' interests, which becomes exploitable at the ballot box after a while.
An important aspect is that Democrats don't have a very good bench of political talent in many House districts and states that have been dominated by Republicans during the past decade or two. Then there's also an 'infrastructure' problem in the Party in these locales and districts and states- most Old Democrats are feeble and wavering, politically unreliable, but they still run the Party apparatus and in their hands it disintegrates or fails as a power concentrating mechanism. Have a look at the Florida Democratic Party, etc. before this year.
This is slowly improving, because everyone sees the oldest generation of Democrats (defined by politics before 1980) fail in their campaigns against Republicans, Republicans proving unbearable, and the younger (defined by the politics after 1990/1994) generation of Democrats becoming/proving successful and relevant. Essentially there's a political logic/pattern of Old Democrat > Republican > post-1990 Democrat. (Useless/Compromised/Corrupted/Irrelevant > Unbearable 'Change'/Corrupt > Adept/Smart/Relevant.) It's painful but the People considers it a solution to its problem of solving the problems of adapting to the post-Industrial economics and the social integration/equality that are its fate.
A lot of the improvement of the Party in the House is in fact due to loss/defection/retirement, which diminishes numbers but decreases liabilities. Pelosi is far better off with Ralph Hall and Rodney Alexander gone this year and a couple of other problem conservatives eliminated in '02- Jim Traficant and Jim Barcia, for example. And the small consolation for the Texas reredistricting problem this year is that the most endangered of the Democratic Reps are generally Blue Dogs who aren't much help in getting Pelosi a reliable and energetic moderate-to-liberal majority.
I see the Republicans emerge with a very small, fearful, majority from this election. Pelosi will have a more solid bloc and always be in striking distance, and she'll start taking it all away from Hastert and his imploding, failing, bunch. With DeLay neutralized- and that effort will continue relentlessly- she's the major force in the chamber. We'll see more Republican resignations and retirements, more special elections, more Democratic seats. 2006 is going to be a great year for her that will end with her as Speaker with a hard majority.
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