10/19 Mason Dixon Fla. Poll - Kerry 45% Bush 48% LV

Poll: Bush, Kerry locked in tight Florida battle

By JAMES KUHNHENN

Knight Ridder Newspapers

WASHINGTON — The presidential debates helped Sen. John Kerry solidify his support in Florida, but the contest in that crucial state is still a tossup, with President Bush holding a slender edge, according to a new poll.

Bush�s lead over Kerry is 48 percent to 45 percent, within the poll's 4-percentage point margin of error, which means the race is in a statistical tie. In early October, after the first of three nationally televised debates, Bush led 48-44.

The poll surveyed 625 likely voters last Thursday through Saturday, Oct. 14-16, starting a day after the last presidential debate in Tempe, Ariz. Mason-Dixon Polling Research conducted the poll for The Miami Herald and other Florida news organizations.

The poll contains good news for both candidates. More voters view Bush positively than Kerry, with 49 percent saying they have favorable opinions of the president and 41 percent holding that view of Kerry. But the poll shows that the three debates reinforced a majority of Kerry voters, some of whom may have been wavering in their support. Five percent of Florida voters said the debates either changed their choices or gave them second thoughts about their choices, though Kerry and Bush seemed to benefit equally from such vacillation.

http://www.macon.com/mld/macon/9960736.htm

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Bush under 50% and Kerry closes the gap by 1 from the last time they polled.

Florida will come down to the wire...

but Kerry can do it, assuming Jeb doesn't steal it.

You can't imagine how tough it's going to be....

We have a Puke governor, a puke filibuster proof senate, and a puke house.....


A Dem has to be kicking ass in the southern part of the state, splitting the central part, to offset the neck vote in the north...

Kerry needs to do better in Cen Fl... That's how Clinton carried the state... And doing a decent job among Cubans...

and this is of likely voters..

Mason-Dixon. Like clockwork! Say, isn't it time for a steaming load of Strategic Derision polls? I'm sure Maryland is tied again, and the Chimperor has assumed a commanding lead in New Jersey, while whittling New York, California, and Illinois to between 2-4 points apiece.

:eyes:

This is good news, but I'm pretty pessimistic on Florida. Still, things are looking right in Ohio and Pennsylvania and stunningly close in Nevada and Colorado. This is still ours to win.

to poll! How is this weighted? What is their definition of what a likely voter is? It's already 3 days old!!

There is no "edge" with a 4 pt MOE, either..

.

Translation:

Kerry 51%, Bush 45%

Mason Dixon has been way off the mark in every poll it has conducted, skewing republican by as much as 10 points.