PA, OH, FL <==Kerry only needs ONE of them

All Kerry has to is win all the Gore states(there is
your one..PA) and also NH.

The initiative in CO WILL pass giving Kerry around
50% of the EV's. If my math is accurate(might not
be)....that would be enough to win.

If Kerry wins all Gore states (which includes PA), he has 260.

He will win New Hampshire. that's up to 264.

He'll have to swing one of the following:
CO(9)
OH
FL
MO
TN
VA
NC
AR+NV

I didn't know CO was only 9....thought it was 12.

anyway.

FL & OH have large fundamentalists segments of the population and they are very organized this year. Expect a high turnout from them.

The Southern Baptists are the largest Protestant denomination in the USA and for he first time in their history they have a get out the vote effort - and it is extremely well organized. All they had to do was piggyback it onto the denominational organization. They aren't endorsing any candidate, but they will break about 85/15 favoring Bush.

Full steam on the ads...one right after another in some cases. Granted, we're the "Alabama of the North" but the less votes for *, the better (especially if the puke-enabled disenfranchisement is going full steam in Philly and Scranton/WB)

Sorry, I only have the link at work.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash


That one is the best. You can run scenarios, try things out- I've played with this for weeks and weeks.


You know, looking at the map though, is there something wrong...?

Ah, I've got it!

They forgot Poland

What a shame to win by a landslide when one vote would do, eh? :D

If he wins PA, and NH, loses OH, and FL, and doesn't win the greater half of Colorado's votes, Kerry gets 268 to Bush's 270. If he wins the greater half of Colorado's votes, it's tied at 269 each.

If he wins OH, and NH, loses PA, and FL, and doesn't win the greater half of Colorado's votes, Kerry gets 267 to Bush's 271. If he wins the greater half of Colorado's votes, he still loses with 268 vs 270.

If he wins FL, and NH, loses OH, and PA, and doesn't win the greater half of Colorado's votes, Kerry gets 274 to Bush's 264. Winning Florida and not the others is the only scenario where this could work.

I don't think it's necisary though, I think PA and NH are pretty firmly in Kerry's column, and that a pickup in any one of: OH, NV, AR, MO, TN, VA, NC, or WV will give us the win (along with around half of Colorado's votes).

Kerry is going to win Colarado outright -- let me just put that out there right now...

If he wins all the Gore states plus Colorado, then it's a 269-269 tie.

BUT...

Kerry is ahead in New Hampshire, good for 4 electoral votes.

At least three polls out today puts Kerry ahead in Ohio. 20 EV's.

No matter what the whores say, Kerry has still got a chance in Florida. 27 EV's.

Kerry can come out of this with as many as 325 electoral votes and a clear mandate.

Also, I still haven't given up on Missouri. I don't think Kerry has, either. When was the last time you saw an irreputable poll putting Bush ahead outside the margin of error? Me neither. All we've heard are whores saying "Kerry has given up on Missouri." I think that's a lie. Perhaps 11 MORE EV's for Kerry...

It's like I've been saying all week: Kerry will get a minimum of 52 million popular votes and 312 electoral votes. It won't even be close.

Why are you saying this? Kerry has to make up 10 EVs to get to 270 on TOP of the Gore states.

PLUS, Wisconsin is NOWHERE near a slam dunk for us, and Iowa and NM seem to be teetering.

We need TWO of those big three.

I was wrong....geez.

some odd reason.

Because we had a record first day of early voting.
Because of my own canvassing and phone banking tells me the enthusiasm.
Because the typical western Republican is a libertarian "don't tread on me" type, and not a fundy mouth-breather...Colorado Springs houses most of them, not the rest of the state.
Because our polls are just as suspect as the rest of the country's.
Because Democrats have won here before. "Conventional wisdom" of this being a GOP only state is just not true.
Because I see yard signs for other GOP candidates, but B/C signs are very rare on those same yards.

I could have myopia though.:dunce:

The amendment would make Colorado irrelevant, and nobody would visit us...frankly, for the first time in this state's history, we're getting some attention, and I like it. electorally, this state has largely been ignored throughout history. Kerry will be here again Saturday Morning in Pueblo! It's nice to be a battleground for once. Also the Amendment does nothing to cure the EC problems, and for Colorado, only takes us out of consideration.

A poll last week showed A36 at 51% against, 39% for, and the rest undecided. It's far from a sure thing.

I don't live in Colorado, but I'd vote no. California is talking about doing this next. Great. What if blue states split their votes and red states don't. We'd have Republican Presidents in the White House forever. That's why.

Didn't factor NH in, as it doesn't affect the outcome when looking at Ohio and/or Florida -- Kerry will to need take at least one of these two -- I keep getting down to that in my electoral calculations.

If we get OH, there will be 12 EVs left over for us, which would be covered by either Iowa and NM or Iowa and NV, or Wisconsin plus any of Iowa, NM, NH, or NV.

If we get Florida, we only need FIVE more. That would be covered by any of those except for NH.

And- this is the great one: If we get ALL THREE- PA, FL AND OH- we don't need any of those, not even Minnesota.

The Colorado initiative will lose, maybe huge. It has no support among Democratic politicians in CO and intense opposition by the GOP. Initiatives that are below 50% in pre-election polls generally lose by a much greater percentage.

We need Florida or Ohio. There are too many Gore states that featured razor margins of victory in 2000. It is mathematically unlikely every one of them will fall in line again. Likewise, Bush cannot count on states he won narrowly like NH and FL.

Are we going to consider New Mexico a red state in 2008, if Bush wins it this time by a margin similar to Gore in 2000? That would make zero sense. Similar to Florida. If Kerry carries it by a few thousand votes, or even 100,000 votes, is Florida suddenly a blue state we can depend on in 2008 and beyond?

favors Bush, so the same states add up to more votes than NH going Kerry.

Kerry has to carry all gore's states and either Florida or Ohio.

He can also tie if he carries all of the Gore states plus NH and Nevada, but a tie losses.

Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. The winner needs two of three. Pennsylvania is getting to be safe Kerry. Ohio and Florida are tied (Rasmussen). I still think Ohio is a safer bet than Florida. If he takes Ohio and NH, and holds NM, he can lose either Iowa or Minnesota, but not both.

So, Hold all of Gore's and add Ohio and NH, that is the safest route. Florida would be just insurance.

That's not actually true. If we get either Ohio or Florida, we only need either 12 or 5 more EVs, out of the Gore states Iowa, NM, and Wisconsin, PLUS Bush states NV and NH.

he needs two of the three. He'll win PA. Its down to Ohio and FL. He's in better shape than Gore because Gore was only contesting Florida.

We got PA last time and lost. If we get NH, we still need more votes. The polls suggest the Colorado vote will fail. NONE OF THIS POST HAS ANY TRUTH

Calm down man....I'm not perfect!

Where did I say the CO vote would fail??

You are counting 4 electoral votes for Kerry from Colorado (I'm guessing) and saying that the Colorado vote will pass. You must be working with some information I don't have because everything I've read suggests that vote will fail: i.e. you can not count any electoral votes from Colorado to be safe.

Contrary to what the polls are indicating.

Regardless, the thread has initiated some worthwhile discussion. Many DUers didn't know the electoral college changes since 2000, and what that means regarding state(s) Kerry must pick up.

Kerry will take Colorado outright. He will get NINE electoral votes from that state. I can feel it...

I'll say it again: Kerry will get a minimum of 52 million popular votes and 312 electoral votes. It won't even be close.

You watch it happen, unless upholding the Colorado initiative lets Bush win. They'll game the system no matter which way they need.

I'm not going to look for the poll now, but I saw one today that has the initiative down by double digits. Don't look for any help there.

For that we need all 3, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Missouri, New Mexico, and...get this North Carolina (if we get that one, then all the others would be easy).

I don't just want Bush to lose. I want to send a message to the world, that the USA is back.

Assuming Kerry carries Nevada and New Hampshire, he's already at 269 with every state Gore carried. If Colorado's ballot question passes, he wins. If he wins in one of the following: Oh, Fl, Mo, Wv, Va, or Ar, he wins without the legal challenges.

This is a close election. We're in a great position to win, but it will take the hard work of everyone within our party to win. Let's all do the work to make sure that John Kerry is the President-elect of the United States of America on November 3rd.