Tinman vs. Scarecrow: Zogby thinks Kerry will win

I've posted on Zogby's odd "Tinman vs. Scarecrow" question before (there is a long article about it in this week's New Yorker Magazine), and he made reference to it again this past weekend -- and said he thinks Kerry will win, IF...

(snip)
"But perhaps more telling, according to pollster John Zogby, is who tops the poll when the race is between the Tin Man and the Scarecrow.

Zogby appeared at a press event this weekend on behalf of the Reuters News Service and recounted asking likely voters in 2000 to choose between the “Tin Man, with all brains and no heart, or the Scarecrow, who is with all heart and no brains.' The result was 46.2% selected the Scarecrow (seen to depict Bush) presidential candidate, 46.2% the Tin Man (Al Gore).

This year the Tin Man (Kerry) leads the Scarecrow by 9%, which is why Zogby told reporters in Singapore he believes Kerry will win Nov. 2 if voter turnout is high. If not, Bush will win, he said. (end snip)

http://www.business-journal.com/LatestZogbyTrackingPoll.asp

and

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=893

Democrats usually do well when voter turnout is high and tend to do poorly when turnout is low.

"Kerry will win Nov. 2 if voter turnout is high."

Get Out The Vote!

And he is usually right.

He called Florida for Gore in 2000, which we know to have been correct. No pollster can predict cheating, just how the people who are going to vote say they will vote if allowed to.

that Bush is "all heart?"

He has no heart.

and definitely no brains.

(edited for spelling)

this question resonates at a gut level.... Bush (passion/emotion), Kerry (intelligence/thoughtfulness) is how the two are broadly perceived by the masses. Zogby is reaching past the specific facts to the general impression... and it's good news. In my opinion, of course.

but he can smile, hold babies, hug Sept 11 family members, etc.

he has the worst attributes of the tin man, scarecrow and lion combined. Thus we have a no heart, no brains, no courage chimp.