Dark Forces Point to Dean Electoral Disaster . The Story Continues

There is movement in the FORCE. But it is the DARK SIDE OF THE FORCE that is giving us Howard Dean. I am for Dean over Bush. And I would love to see a refutation of the stylized facts laid out here. But, nothing that has happened over the past month bodes well (5 Southern Senators quitting, Saddam captured). Without some astonishing and unexpected political development, or act of God, it is absolutely clear to me that Dean cannot win the general election against George Bush.

Dean is such a gift to Republicans that, after his recent gaffs, their operatives are now pulling back from attacking him for fear that Democrats could come to their senses.

The overarching reason is for Dean’s incapacity is that the 2004 election will be fought over national security issues and Dean cannot pass the fundamental test of Credibility as Commander-In-Chief.

Beyond this are two basic challenges of U.S. electoral politics for the democratic nominee: (1) success with the Independent Vote, and (2) an inroad (1 or 2 states) into the Southern Vote.

The Independent Vote.

What is the independent vote looking for? This is somewhat unpredictable since independents are more heavily motivated by personal factors as opposed to party or ideological loyalty. They are however a few generalities from past elections that suggest that in a nationwide Dean vs. Bush match-up Dean would loose the independent vote. Key issues:

Independents (Indys) are heavily influence by the existing dynamics in the economy. If the economy continues to rebound the Indy will be reluctant to vote for change. If the Irac War continues to go badly the Indy will be willing to consider a new Commander-In-Chief. But, if national security is the Indy issue Dean’s lack of credentials will be devastating because the Indy will seek an OBJECTIVE (not partisan) critique of Dean.

The independent vote tends to be entrepreneurial and pro-business. Every Indy thinks he/she could become a big-wig next year. Dean’s anti-corporate rhetoric will backfire among Indys in the general election.

The independent vote tends to be anti-labor union. A large majority of the Independent vote supports “right-to-work.” Dean’s recent embrace of closed-shop labor union policy will be used by the Rove machine to pry away the Indy vote.

The independent vote tends to a candidate who is perceive to be bi-partisan and able to work across party lines to develop national consensus. The very anger that Dean uses to mobilize the Democratic base can be expected to be used to paint him as totally unacceptable to independents.

The independent vote is attracted to “star quality.”


The Southern Vote.

A little recent history.
Clinton/Gore (2 sons of the South) won 5 Southern States against Bush Senior who was viewed as a North-Easterner
Gore/Lieberman won 0 (not counting FL) Southern States against Bush Junior who was viewed as a Texan.

John Kennedy did well in the South, in part, because he was perceived as a dashing war hero.

A little about culture.

The reality is the Southern voter likes a candidate with a “strong military” image, as Zell Miller would say they “like a guy with a little grit in his craw.”

In fact, the “military vote” (active, reserve, veteran) is a significant component to the Southern vote. Some estimates show that 80% of the military vote, concentrated in the South, usually goes Republican, significantly affection electoral college results.

It would have taken either a “strong message” to Nader OR less than a .02% percent shift in the military vote for the Democrats to have prevailed in Florida in 2000. Less than 5 percent in the military vote would have given Democrats the electoral votes in Arkansas, Nevada and New Hampshire. Dean’s Vietnam draft deferment to the ski-slopes, and subsequent lack of military of foreign policy experience, will undoubtedly be used to deny the Democrats a deserved anti-Bush swing the in military vote.

White or Black, the Southern voter seems to like their candidates tall, tough and straight-shooting. Dukakis blew it because he didn’t “look right” in a tank. Does anyone really believe that Dr. Dean will fare better after his image has been pummeled by the Karl Rove machine (sad, but that’s the way it is).

Bill Clinton beat George Bush in 1992 with a little help from Ross Perot. I spent some time with Bill Clinton. He was a brilliant policy wonk and incredibly good on the campaign trail. His face-to-face persuasive ability was incredible. Howard Dean is no Bill Clinton.

Conclusion:

The stylized facts of U.S. electoral politics suggests that Howard Dean CANNOT WIN in 2004. Yet, many of us are in DEEP, DEEP, DEEP DENIAL..

OBI-WAN: Where are you when we need you?

Where are you getting this? I distinctly recall responding a post like this by saying that Obi-Wan would say stop wringing your hands and fretting about everything and trust in the Force.

I would genuinely like to know where you got this. Are you re-posting your original thread, or are you cutting and pasting this from some other source?

Deutsey. Glad you read my posts. WiseMen is not wringing hand.

Be Wise.

I don't have much against Clark...it's some of his supporters here on DU that make me wonder whether he should be my second choice.

An oldie but a goodie for you, is it?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=100187

And the way you completely over-estimate national security over the economy as a factor.

George is both incompetent and heartless as CIC and no amount of costuming has altered that.

The capture of Saddam seems to have panicked you. Please remember: nobody here is scared of the dirty powerless old man in those over-exposed pictures.

If we're not scared, we won't vote George.

I just can't get over how much you're in favor of Dean. It's just so cute!

Dean could have won the election in 2000. And perhaps in 2008.
Things have however changed. Changed so dramatically that the Bush regime has been able to divert $trillions and wreck havoc on the
globe without much of a revolt.

A revolution against the Bush war regime in 2004 has to be led by
an invulnerable ticket. The price of failure is just too great.

And I reject it as such.

eom

:hurts:



On edit: Steve

It isn't about the military, it is about charisma and strength. It is about refusing to back down. It is about star quality.

But you have made the case FOR Dean, not against him.

Maybe Zell-out meant "grits in his craw." (SHUDDER THE THOUGHT)

Anybody but Bu$h. He did not win the last election and that was before he proved himself to be the worst president ever. The Democratic Candidate is going to be the next president. You can believe the polls from the media fed by the FCC gift of DirectTV to Murdoch if you want. I am going to be preaching that the disinformation campaign to hide the crimes and failures of the war criminal now in residence is glaring and if you do not see it you are blind.

Bu$h is not going to win and I think the people that are saying that are just making muddy water so that real issues are not discussed. We will decide on a nominee and then we will vote for him. What Bu$h now does is not relevant. He has already proven himself a failure and a pawn of the wealthy.

I question the sincerity of everything you say. Dean is for breaking up the media and I am an excited Kucinich believer. There is an issue, there is my candidate. All I want to know is who it is I will be voting for because it surely will not be the war criminal Bu$h.

Lousiana is in play this cycle
New Hampshire is in play this cycle
Nevada is in play, as is West Virginia and Ohio.

Either way, the Dems have to find a way to win around the South. Because we could nominate Jeb Bush as a Democrat and the South would not vote for him.


Like I said, Louisiana and West Virginia are in play this cycle, but numerous winnable scenarios exist without touching the deep south.

governor shade the view. It is still extremely conservative.

for all the dean bashig to come out at once.... so he had to create another account.

:bounce:

Howard Dean's "kitchen cabinet" consists of some of the heaviest hitters in foreign policy, and they have publicly signed on to provide advice to his campaign.

With all due respect, WiseMen, do you know more than Tony Lake or Susan Rice about foreign policy? More about military matters than General McPeak or General Hoar?

You can read the full list of Dean's publicly announced foreign policy team members here. Again, that's just the publicly announced names, and it's full of star power.

Simple question: why would such a broad range of foreign policy professionals support Howard Dean if they didn't appreciate his foreign policy views and his ability to articulate a coherent strategy for U.S. national security? And another question: has any other candidate assembled such an impressive team of experts?

Has not the Bush disaster taught us that the Presidency is not
the place for Foreign Policy "on-the-job" training????

Not "any candidate"?

Just like all the elected Democratic officials endorsing Dean. They're putting a lot on the line by doing that.

And I have grave doubts about Clark's "on-the-job" training when it comes to civilian, domestic affairs. Mind you, I like Clark, it's just that one of the reasons he's second on my list is that I don't see where he's got any significant domestic, civilian governing experience.

I agree. We need a Democratic nominee who has star power in his kitchen cabinet. Who can assemble the best possible team of foreign policy advisors and experts to solve national security problems.

Now please point me to any comparable press release from any major Democratic presidential candidate listing those foreign policy experts who are willing to be publicly identified with that candidate. And then you'll have my attention.

Have you ever taken even a brief look at allmost endless list
of experts who have endorsed Kerry. But that is not the point at all.
The question in the knowledge and experience of the PRESIDENT.

We don't want another Bush. I don't think the Repubs will want to
trust OUR BUSH EQUIVALENT.

Do you have a link?

...even a brief look at allmost endless list of experts who have endorsed Kerry.

Would love to. Got a link?

drastic shift in foreign policy? Thanks, I think I'll gamble on the new guy.

You evidently are not a fan of Howard Dean, and you've criticized his foreign policy bona fides.

I'm asking why so many named experts in the foreign policy arena disagree with you. I'm curious why you think they'd advise Governor Dean if he's as you describe.

Or, to say it another way, why should we believe you and not believe this all-star cast of foreign policy experts who are willing -- no, eager -- to associate their names with his candidacy?

...is Senator Palpatine trying to stop him?

:thumbsup:

we need a miracle.

Howard Dean is no Bill Clinton.

"Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy, I knew Jack Kennedy, Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy." - Lloyd Bentsen, to Dan Quayle, in 1988 Vice Presidential Debate

What an awesome moment. My neighbors could hear me cheering for blocks!

:bounce:

We're left with Clark, Kerry, and Edwards (excluding Gep and Lieberman).

Can Kerry win a southern state?

Clark and Edwards have some strength in the South, but which will pull the most Northeastern/traditionally liberal states (i.e. NY, California)?

This negativism is a waste of everyone's time. Some of your arguments really don't hold water. The southern vote, for instance is based on much more than your military worshiping projections. Why? "It's the culture stupid." It's not about region, it's about culture and Dean happens to share that with southerners having been a part of a rural culture for the past 20 or so years. This will also appeal to midwesterners. This presents huge opportunity for picking up Missouri which is a southern\midwestern state.

"And instead of fretting about all the ways Dean could lose, the insiders might do better to spend some time thinking about how he might win." -Michael Tomasky

You missed the point. As you spend the primaries providing the pukes with talking points. They think you are VERY generous as they look at the distinct possibility of a Dean nomination. They will repeat the crap people like you spew.

go

but recycled poop...