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I think this election is a whole new ball game, except for 2000, no other is applicable - yet the level of challenge to voting that did not fully play out in 2000 will play out this round. Also think polls are more unreliable than polling companies want you to believe. While current polls are mostly tied within margin of error, there are variables that will determine the outcome.
-In a way, the vote is only the starting block. This election will prove that the system isbroken.
-The turnout - will work in Kerry's favor - new registered voters may be more easily challenged, though. If there is enough of a landslide that a win is not aggressively challenged, it will be a Kerry win on the surprise turnout - and will prove that pre-election polls are poor predictors and new methods will be explored.
-The voting machines, balloting, counting and technical snafus - how these will go and what locations will become problem locations I don't know - but you can bet there will be issues.
-Republican challenges (claims of fraud) - you can tell by the way they are setting up the spin that they are planning to do this, post election. On one hand, this seems promising for Kerry - that Republicans are going to this length means that they are assuming enough losses that they will not win outright and will go straight to challenging the result. I am left thinkng that the presidency will actually be won in the contests and court challenges and am curious as to what possible Republican bombs are being preset and hope the Democrats are ready for anything. The fervor of the Bush supporters will be scary.
-The rare undecided voter - many will not vote - others probably will not break as favorably for Kerry as some speculate. Why I think this: the power of the Bushies to spread fear of terror attacks among people who live in rural areas or small towns is ridiculous. Some people are easily and irrationally scared and their tendency to quake should not be underestimated.
-Polling intimidation and polling chaos: It seems like there will be efforts to slow down and intimidate voters (reducing Democrats - and we have to wonder how many Republicans are voting early for this reason) and possibly to declare problems with the vote in certain precincts where Democrats are likely favored.
Post election legal battles: This is likely where the presidency will be won.
All in all, I speculate that the failure to fix the voting system and to unify the system on a national level after 2000 - that this will play out and be the story of 2004. After this election it will be more clear than it was in 2000 that Democracy, or at least voting/polling, is broken in the United States. On an international level this will become quite scandalous, and even if Bush manages to retain the presidency, any words that he speaks about "spreading freedom and democracy" will be evident, worldwide, as the words of a dictator. World opinion towards the US will then undergo a REAL shift, not the paltry "we are not pleased" attitude of the present.
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