Seeking comments on my election prediction

blackcat77

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Sat Oct-23-04 02:25 AM
Original message

Seeking comments on my election prediction

Formula for figuring the totals at the bottom.  Am I
forgetting something?  Putting something in that doesn't
belong?  All suggestions appreciated.  I like the results but
it seems a little optimistic...

-----

My guess of the swing states as of Friday, October 22, 2004

State	Bush	Kerry		
ME	45.5	54.5
PA	46.5	53.5	
NJ	46.5	53.5
MI	46.75	53.25
NM	47	53
NH	47.5	52.5
OH	48	52
FL	49.25	50.75
WI	49.75	50.25	
VA	50	50	
NC	50	50	
IA	50	50
WV	50	50	
AZ	50.5	49.5
AR	50.5	49.5
MO	50.5	49.5	
NV	51	49
CO	51.25	48.75		
	
Electoral Vote – Kerry 316, Bush 222
Popular Vote – Kerry 51.3, Bush 48.0, Other 0.7

Methodology:

Start with the average of polls dated 10/15 to 10/20

Assume that both parties equally bring out their base

Assume that there are 10% new registrations
Assume that new registrations favour Dems 2:1
Assume that 50% of new registereds will actually vote (net
+1.5 Dem)

Assume that undecideds will break Dem 2:1

Assume that Nader will take 1% from Kerry in states where he
appears

Divide any math oddities evenly between the candidates and
voila!

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serryjw

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Sat Oct-23-04 02:28 AM
Response to Original message

1. I said JK would end up with

Between 310-320. I think the anger in the country is either not be measured correctly or they are in denial.

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MeinaShaw

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Sat Oct-23-04 02:33 AM
Response to Original message

2. Hope you are right

I hope you are right. But is seems a bit optomistic. I think Bush will try and throw this one to the Supreme Court again. They are already at it with fighting to keep people from voting.

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newyawker99

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Sat Oct-23-04 10:07 AM
Response to Reply #2

9. Hi MeinaShaw!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

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tedoll78

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Sat Oct-23-04 02:36 AM
Response to Original message

3. Sadly, a bit optimistic.

I wonder if 10% of voters will be new. That's my first big question. If they are, and if they go for Kerry by at least 3-to-2, we have this in the bag. 2-to-1 might be a bit unrealistic, but who knows?

I think Kerry will win the states you have him winning. I'm most worried about Wisconsin and Florida, and I have no friggin idea what's going on in Iowa.

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Lancer

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Sat Oct-23-04 02:39 AM
Response to Original message

4. Nice work there

I am beginning to think, as your stats indicate, that Kerry just may win each of the "Big Three," OH, PA & FL. And probably by something close to the margins you have shown. I heard on MSNBC yesterday that Bush is not even going back to PA until the end of next week.

Something about this years poll's just doesn't jibe with everything I am seeing and hearing from regular people. . .

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Awsi Dooger

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Sat Oct-23-04 03:01 AM
Response to Original message

5. A couple of things I would change

New registrations do not favor Dems 2:1. It varies by state, obviously. Overall I would not be comfortable assigning a Dem advantage beyond 6/5. That's +20% and I'm sure that's high.

I would think slightly more than 50% of the newly registered will vote.

It's still probable at least 1 to 2% more Republicans will support Bush than Democrats will vote for Kerry, including among the newly registered.

Kerry will not lose a net 1% to Nader. Closer to .5%

I put much more weight in national polls than state polls, and try to estimate state numbers by the probable relationship between the nation in general and the partisan tilt of that particular state. When I utilize state polls, I adjust them based on previous tendencies in that state for the polls to err toward one party or the other.

Just my theories. I like your bottom line better than mine, which gave Kerry only a slight edge via Excel spreadsheets on Friday, in the 55-45 range.

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jsw_81

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Sat Oct-23-04 03:04 AM
Response to Original message

6. I think your prediction is a bit too optimistic

We can definitely win the election, but I think it's highly unlikely that we'll carry Virginia, Arkansas, North Carolina, or West Virginia. All the talk about how we're so "competitive" in those states is nothing more than spin to excite our base, much in the same way that the Bush campaign spins about how well they're supposedly going to do in New Jersey etc. We saw this same phenomenon two years ago when everyone here was so excited about our prospects in the various southern Senate races (e.g. Kirk, Bowles), but on election day we got wiped out; a more realistic electoral vote scenario would have Kerry winning in the 275-295 vote range.

As for Kerry winning 51 percent of the popular vote, keep in mind the fact that only one Democratic candidate since 1964 -- Jimmy Carter in 1976 -- has even managed to hit 50 percent; Bill Clinton himself never managed to win 50 percent of the vote. Should Kerry prevail, he'll probably end up with around 47 or 48 percent of the vote.

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jacksonian

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Sat Oct-23-04 04:10 AM
Response to Reply #6

8. i don't see the "others" in the race getting much more than 1-2%

so it is very likely the winner of the popular vote will be over 50% or damned close to it.

First close race without significant 3rd party support since, well, 1976. I think Kerry will beat Carter's 50.1.

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goodwalt

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Sat Oct-23-04 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #6

11. Way disagree

Of course we are not going to sweep Virginia, Arkansas, North Carolina and West Virginia- but I DO believe the polling numbers from Zogby and a few reputable others that are showing Kerry within 3 and 4%. I DO NOT believe these numbers are "spin". Furthermore, I firmly believe that any race polling that close has the strong potential to be a Kerry win. It is a FACT that unlike in 2000, Democrats are PISSED, and HIGHLY MOTIVATED. It is also a FACT that many traditional Repug voters have SERIOUS ISSUES with *- be it gas prices, jobs, flu vaccine, the Medicare bill, or the extended tours of duty of family/friends. The traditional voter turn out percentages will be turned on their heads this year.

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Lexingtonian

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Sat Oct-23-04 03:33 AM
Response to Original message

7. quite nice!

Your numbers are pretty astute, IMHO, but they'd look a little more familiar with Nader/Third percentages counted in as neutral- those are voters who are choosing to go AWOL from the battle for power and the cultural conflict, and this year they are perfectly aware of it.

I'll be a little more optimistic than you and propose that Iowa and Nevada are 50-49 or 50-48 Kerry wins, West Virginia and Arizona the ones with outcomes decided by margins like 500 votes. I'll be more pessimistic than you about the outcomes in Virginia and North Carolina- the Christian Right theocrats will make sure to keep those EVs for Bush.

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blackcat77

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Sat Oct-23-04 10:46 AM
Response to Reply #7

10. Thanks everybody!

This was a first try at the formula and I think I will make a few changes.

New registrations -- 7%
Will vote -- 67%
Favour Democrats -- 3:2
Net adjustment -- +0.7 for Kerry%

And I had the numbers for just the two main candidates so I'll alter that to include Nader, Badnarik, etc.

Thanks and I'll post revised results on Monday. This whole thing is about a contest to predict the election on my chat board.

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