electoral college rundown

I studied the past polls on electoral-vote http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html and ran down who would win each state by throwing out polls I don't think are trustworthy and taking the average of recent poll. What I cam up with is that the map will be exactly the same except Kerry wins New Hampshire. 5 states could really go either way, but if you put a gun to my head and make me pick, I had to predict bush: Ohio, Florida, Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada. I think the rest are *fairly* secure as either red states or blue states. I think it is good that the 5 states I thought could go either way are red states. Unfortunetely, Nevada alone won't help but the rest would win it assuming everything else goes to plan. Comments?

How so? I haven't seen a single recent poll that puts him ahead in Ohio.

Oct 18 Zogby being the most important one in my mind.

Model 1:

CA,FL,HI,IL,ME,MA,MD,MI,MN,NJ,NM,NY,OR,PA,RI,VT,WA,DC,CT,DE=270

Model 2:

CA,OH,HI,IL,ME,MA,MD,MI,MN,NJ,NM,NY,OR,PA,RI,VT,WA,DC,CT,DE,IA=270

Model 3:

CA,HI,IL,ME,MA,MD,MI,MN,NJ,NM,NY,OR,PA,RI,VT,WA,DC,CT,DE,IA,NH,WIS,CO= 273

Ok, so we of course have to keep MI,MN,PA, and NJ. That's a given. I think we're looking pretty good in those four states to hold.

Assuming we keep those four, if we win FL and OH, hard to see how we lose.

If we win FL or OH, but not both, then NM becomes key. A FL or a OH win, but not both means NM is a must win.

If we win FL, but not OH, then we don't need WIS, IOWA or NH. Just NM(Model 1)

If we win OH, but not FL, then we need IOWA with NM, but not WIS or NH (Model 2)

However we can still win without either FL or OH with Model 3.

A win without FL or OH is possible if we win NM (stated earlier that NM is key) plus IOWA, WISC, NH, and pick up CO =273