WaPo is out: Kerry up 49-48

I remember a couple of ties, but not him up, even by 1.

It appears the WashPO found a trend! - using historical Dem % of the vote

Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/24/04 48 49 1 * 1 0 1
10/23/04 49 48 1 * 1 * 2
10/22/04 50 46 1 * 1 * 2
10/21/04 50 46 1 * * * 2
10/20/04 51 45 1 * 1 * 2

Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
10/24/04 46 48 2 * 1 * 2
10/23/04 49 46 1 * 1 * 3
10/22/04 50 45 2 * 1 * 3
10/21/04 50 44 1 * 1 * 3
10/20/04 51 44 1 * 1 1 3

Right Wrong No
direction track opin.
10/24/04 LV 41 55 4
10/23/04 LV 43 54 4
10/22/04 LV 44 52 4


The tracking poll is based on a rolling three-day sample. About 350 likely voters are polled each day. The Post adjusts, or "weights," each day's randomly selected samples of adults to match the voting-age population percentages by age, sex, race, and education, as reported by the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The Post also adjusts the percentages of self-identified Democrats and Republicans by partially weighting to bring the percentages of those groups to within three percentage points of their proportion of the electorate, as measured by national exit polls of voters in the last three presidential elections.


10/25: 1,631 likely voters; 2,079 self-identified registered voters Oct. 21-24.

10/24: 1,638 likely voters; 2,085 self-identified registered voters Oct. 20-23.

10/23: 1,222 likely voters; 1,575 self-identified registered voters Oct. 20-22.

10/22: 1,238 likely voters; 1,592 self-identified registered voters Oct. 19-21.

10/21: 1,260 likely voters; 1,590 self-identified registered voters Oct. 18-20.

10/20: 1,248 likely voters; 1,586 self-identified registered voters Oct. 17-19.

10/19: 1,237 likely voters; 1,593 self-identified registered voters Oct. 16-18.

10/18: 1,656 likely voters; 2,130 self-identified registered voters Oct. 14-17.

10/17: 1,648 likely voters; 2,115 self-identified registered voters Oct. 13-16.

10/16: 1,203 likely voters; 1,574 self-identified registered voters Oct. 13-15.

And for some reason, he didn't mention that one. He had the Mason-Dixon numbers, though! Kerry and Bush 2-3 points apart, WITH AN MOE OF 5%. So, Kerry is just as likely to be UP by 2-3 points, too, you tool, Wolfe!

That would be nice, for a change.

I think Kerry is about to pull away

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61985-2004Oct25.html