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Clark within 5 pts. of Dean in NH: ARG Poll

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Dookus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 02:19 PM
Original message
Clark within 5 pts. of Dean in NH: ARG Poll
Both Clark and Kerry are up 5 points in 4 days. Dean has lost 7. The race seems to be tightening all over!

3-Day Results Jan 9-11 Jan 10-12 Jan 11-13 Jan 12-14

Braun 0% 0% 0% 0%
Clark 19% 20% 22% 24%
Dean 36% 34% 32% 29%
Edwards 3% 3% 3% 5%
Gephardt 4% 4% 4% 4%
Kerry 10% 11% 13% 15%
Kucinich 1% 1% 1% 1%
Lieberman 10% 9% 9% 7%
Sharpton 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0% 0%
Undecided 17% 18% 16% 15%

Sample size 616 621 623 622

Democrats 425 430 435 435
Undeclared 191 191 188 187
Undeclared (%) 31% 31% 30% 30%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points
Methodology

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boxster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 02:28 PM
Response to Original message
1. Wow, this is incredible. Clark is nearly within the MOE of Dean.
The recent swing for Clark is simply amazing.

If Clark somehow does the unthinkable (a couple of weeks ago) and wins NH, I think we'll see the "Skip Iowa" plan become a common occurrence in the future.
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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 03:27 PM
Response to Reply #1
8. If Clark wins New Hampshire...
... I think we might see the end of the significance of the Iowa caucuses once and for all.

What a fascinating race this is going to be!!
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meti57b Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 02:46 PM
Response to Original message
2. Clark has the big momentum and Dean has the big slowmentum ... but
if Dean wins the nomination, I will be doing and spending all that I can to get him elected and bush out of office.
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Clark4VotingRights Donating Member (795 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 07:43 PM
Response to Reply #2
16. Hell yes! TO the doing/spending part!
Hell yes...
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Dookus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 02:53 PM
Response to Original message
3. One interesting thing to note here:
Kerry has stopped his sudden drop and is climbing again. If he wins Iowa (which now seems quite possible), he will get a big bounce in NH.
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MoonRiver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 02:55 PM
Response to Original message
4. GOOOOOOO GENERAL CLARK!!!!
Yes, I'm shouting, FOR JOY!!!

:kick: :bounce: :kick:
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stickdog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 03:09 PM
Response to Original message
5. Note that ONLY the tracking polls are showing these supposed swings.
Not a single regular poll is.

I wonder why.
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Dookus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 03:18 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. You're mistaken.
Other polls also show a big climb for Clark.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20040114/APN/401140819
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stickdog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 04:35 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. Dean has 15 point lead in that poll. (nt)
Edited on Thu Jan-15-04 04:35 PM by stickdog
Dean was chosen by 32 percent of voters, followed by Clark with 17 percent, Kerry with 12 percent and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman in fourth with 11 percent.
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Dookus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. yes, and Clark is rising steadily
Neither I nor anybody else has ever asserted that Dean is not in 1st place in NH. We're asserting that it's tightening.
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tameszu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. How about Clark within single digits (9 pts.) of Dean?
In this Boston Herald poll:

http://news.bostonherald.com/national/national.bg?articleid=503

(Actually, this was reported in the previous article)

SUSA also has Dean (35) vs. Clark (29):

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NH040112demprimary.pdf
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Maddy McCall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 07:51 PM
Response to Reply #11
24. The trend, my friend, the trend.
Dean is trending down; Clark is trending up. The undecideds are deciding.

:-)
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Frederic Bastiat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 03:11 PM
Response to Original message
6. Must be them undecideds LOL
Go Clark!
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Bombtrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 03:28 PM
Response to Original message
9. you should edit it and put it in plane text so it's easier to read 
3-Day Results 

    1/9-11 1/10-12 1/11-13 1/12-14 

Braun   0%     0%     0%      0% 
Clark  19%    20%    22%     24% 
Dean   36%    34%    32%     29% 
Edwards 3%     3%     3%      5% 
Gephardt4%     4%     4%      4% 
Kerry  10%    11%    13%     15% 
Kucinic 1%     1%     1%      1% 
Lieberm10%     9%     9%      7% 
Sharpton0%     0%     0%      0% 
Other   0%     0%     0%      0% 
Undecid17%    18%    16%     15% 
Sample size:
       616    621    623     622 
Dems   425    430    435     435 
Undeclared:
       191    191    188     187 
Undeclared(%):
       31%    31%     30%    30% 
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points 
Methodology
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Dookus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Thanks Bombtrack -
how'd you do that? Whenever I've tried to format stuff that way, all the leading spaces get stripped out.
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John_H Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 04:49 PM
Response to Original message
12. "Normal" people are starting to pay attention
You know, people who just take a look at the candidates and go vote--people who don't buy into the feel-good movement, people who don't know a blog from a meetup.

Dean's had the zealot bandwagoneers from day 1--that's the way trippi designed the campaign. Trouble is, when the rest of the Democratic voters tune in, Dr. Dean doesn't seem to go anywhere but down.

Bad news for Dean supporters, great news for anyone who puts beating the Chimp above feeling part of "something big."
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gulliver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 07:14 PM
Response to Original message
14. Now there's some great news!
Edited on Thu Jan-15-04 07:15 PM by gulliver
Go Clark! I also notice he has nearly reached $700,000 in donations for his train to NH. I'm in.
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4StarWes Donating Member (24 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 07:38 PM
Response to Original message
15. Only wes can win IMHO
He's the only general running.
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gulliver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. Yes, he does bring the national security issue to the Dems.
There is so much more to the man, though. Watch him once or twice and it comes through loud and clear that he is brilliant and compassionate in addition to being courageous and experienced with foreign affairs.

And yes, Clark is a general. As Michael Moore said when he endorsed Clark, I too would love to see the "general against the deserter" in a debate.
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shivaji Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 07:44 PM
Response to Original message
18. The new revelations regarding Clark's congrssional testimony may
pull his numbers down. Dean's revelations are all of the zzzz type.
Just makes him out to be a human being.
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windansea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 07:52 PM
Response to Reply #18
25. perhaps you need to read ALL Clarks testimony
and not just Drudge...see Josh Marshall for fair review

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/
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LTR Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 08:20 PM
Response to Reply #18
27. It's all old news
How many months have we been hearing this stuff?

:boring:
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Closer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 07:48 PM
Response to Original message
20. Don't celebrate too much
This will be short lived.

As soon as Dean wins Iowa, he'll be in NH, hitting it H A R D
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DancingBear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 08:06 PM
Response to Reply #20
26. The Manchester debate on the 22nd should be interesting.

The two will get to battle - without CMB as a buffer, and with Al being, well, Al.

With regard to hitting NH hard, be aware of the independence of the NH voter, and their ability to make up their own minds. It can almost be assured that an attack on Clark's party affiliation will backfire. If "hitting it hard" means that, Dean may want to rethink his strategy.
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Clark4VotingRights Donating Member (795 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 07:48 PM
Response to Original message
21. While I'm chronically skeptical of polls...
Clark's recent progress seems pretty stunning.
I'm sorta stunned actually.
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funky_bug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 07:49 PM
Response to Original message
22. The most beautiful part of this poll is
that "undecided" is tanking!

Way to go, Democrats!
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Maddy McCall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-15-04 07:50 PM
Response to Original message
23. One goes up, the other goes down, and the margin of error makes
this a near statistical tie. WOOHOO!!!

:bounce:
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