my conversation with someone who ALMOST voted for Nader

This morning I got into a conversation with the middle-aged Arab guy who runs an organic food store on the corner near my local cafe. He already voted early, and he went for Kerry.

Even though he hates Bush, he's not crazy about Kerry either, and he was a Nader supporter. But just right before he filled out his ballot and turned it in, he realized that he REALLY did not want a second Bush term, and at the last minute he changed his mind and decided to vote for Kerry instead.

I realize that I shouldn't necessarily make any projections based on my conversation with just one single person, but I suspect that you'll see a number of Nader supporters changing their minds and voting for Kerry at the last minute.

My conversation this morning with that shopkeeper reinforced what I've already believed for some time -- that Nader may be an idiot and an irrelevant washed-up has-been, but he won't be a spoiler.

That's why I think Nader's total vote could be less than 1% nationally. The same thing happened to John Anderson, Ross Perot and George Wallace. On election day, most voters want their votes to count.

IIRC, Nader was polling around 7% in the last few weeks, and ended up with under 3%. Unfortunately, several thousand of those votes were in Florida...

This year, Nader's pulling, what, 2%? I expect that to drop by a bit, especially in swing states.

I think many in Calif. stayed home after that.

I don't know any former Naderites that are voting for him this year.. The few that I do know are still in deep remorse that they wasted their vote last time..