Why is ABC exit polling?

This is exactly what they are doing by polling those who voted early. This is not helpful. :mad:


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=199229&page=1

.

These are just people who already voted but got picked up in their random sample...

more Repuke-friendly than the nation as a whole. Many states have not yet allowed for early voting. Pay no mind.

but it looked like this

percentage of two party vote

Early Voters


Bush 51%

Kerry 47%



Actual Results

Bush 54%


Gore 46%

but it may have the effect of an exit poll, discouraging people from voting. I hope not.

we are overperforming a race where we already won...

Kerry is getting a larger percentage of the vote than Gore...

It's hard but I'll try to explain...


The states that have early voting have more Bush voters than Gore voters but Kerry is still doing better than Gore...

Maybe another DUer can explain it better...

I'm kind of tired ....

Thanks.

and he told Imus that they will have a good idea who is going to win by 3 or 4pm based on the Exit Polling on Election Day! WTF? SO are they going to pretend on air that they don't know who is going to win or is the fix indeed, already in?

In fact I "know" you can't giving the different time zones and there's no way to know if the folks who vote early in the day represent the preferences of folks who will be voting later.....

What an asinine comment he made...

As ass making an asinine comment...

Kerry in a Landslide. ;-)

Early voting is taking place in a lot of red-to-purple states. Many solidly blue states don't have early voting, so to say that Bush leads in early voting is a pretty irrelevant fact.

Here are the states which do NOT have early voting:

AL (strong Bush)
AK (solid Bush)
CT (solid Kerry)
DC (strong Kerry)
DE (solid Kerry)
KY (solid Bush)
IL (solid Kerry)
IN (solid Bush)
MA (strong Kerry)
MD (solid Kerry)
ME (tossup)
MN (leaning Kerry)
MO (tossup)
MS (solid Bush)
NE (solid Bush)
NH (tossup)
NJ (leaning Kerry)
NY (strong Kerry)
OH (leaning Kerry)
PA (leaning Kerry)
RI (solid Kerry)
SC (solid Bush)
SD (solid Bush)
UT (strong Bush)
VA (leaning Bush)
WA (solid Kerry)
WI (tossup)
WY (strong Bush)

There are a lot of solidly blue, very populous states on this list. And if the polls are right, even the large battleground states in the industrial Midwest would give Kerry a boost in the overall national popular vote.

The only true-blue early voting states are California and Vermont. That's it.

To put it another way- if Kerry is trailing by only 4 points in the early voting states, this is very good news.

-MR

:shrug: