|
The GOP Strategy by Chris Bowers
Via Kevin Drum. There is an obvious reason why Republicans are actively trying to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of voters. Kerry is winning, and if they do not suppress minority turnout, Bush will lose: Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has just finished a survey of 12 battleground states and finds Bush and Kerry tied with 47% of the vote apiece. But when he weights for minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Kerry is ahead 49.2%-45.7%. And when he further updates the weighting to take into account the most recent census results, Kerry is ahead 49.9%-44.7%. As Fabrizio blandly puts it, "It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President's campaign." More accurately, if Fabrizio is right -- that Kerry is ahead by 5% overall in the battleground states -- Kerry is a sure winner on November 2.
Suddenly the Bush campaign's obsession with challenging voters in minority neighborhoods makes a lot of sense, doesn't it? Their own internal polling is probably telling the same thing that Fabrizio's poll says: unless they somehow manage to keep the minority vote down, they're doomed.
Suppressing minority turnout through intimidation and disenfranchising minorities who attempt to vote by challenging or shredding their registrations is not ancillary to the Bush campaign's strategy, it is central. They simply have few, if any, other cards left to play.
|