Zogby state polls: weird but pretty good results

pabloseb

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Wed Oct-27-04 05:55 PM
Original message

Zogby state polls: weird but pretty good results

The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Kerry led 50-46 percent; Florida, Bush 48-46 percent; Iowa, tied 45 percent; Michigan, tied 47 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 47-44 percent; New Mexico, Bush 47-44 percent; Nevada, Bush 51-44 percent; Ohio, Kerry, 46-45 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 49-46 percent; and Wisconsin, Kerry 50-46 percent.

Link: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=578&e=4&u=/nm/20041027/pl_nm/campaign_poll_wednesday_dc

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mzmolly

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Wed Oct-27-04 05:58 PM
Response to Original message

1. Very good news. Kerry should win any state that is tied when * is

below 50%. :shrug:

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Demfromct

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Wed Oct-27-04 05:58 PM
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2. I don't belive it

No way Kerry has only 1 pone ponit lead in Ohio but up 4 in Colorado. And no way Kerry has a lrger lead in wiscnosi than Pa.

I just don't belive his state state polls. I guess we'll see.

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West Coast Democrat

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Wed Oct-27-04 05:59 PM
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3. The most interesting point here.....

"At this stage of the 2000 election, Bush led Democrat Al Gore by five points in the daily tracking poll."

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louis c

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Wed Oct-27-04 06:01 PM
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4. If you allocated the undecided

at 2 to 1 for Kerry, which is a conservative estimate of a challengers proportion on undecideds, Kerry would win every swing sate except Nevada, with Florida even.

This is very good news, and a trend to Kerry.

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sonicx

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Wed Oct-27-04 06:02 PM
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5. Colorado is still BS. also...

FL and MI have had several polls with kerry up.

NM has too many dems to go bush (especially by 3 points)

WI is surprising. i've seen it closer in other polls.

Kerry's up more than that in PA.

NV is probably closer.

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MidwestTransplant

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Wed Oct-27-04 06:03 PM
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6. What's up with the Michigan #?

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pabloseb

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Wed Oct-27-04 06:06 PM
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7. Keep in mind that these polls change a lot

from day to day. Oscillations of 5% in a single day are the rule. But I said good news because overall today's results are better than yesterday's. Both are strange, but the tencende is good.

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saracat

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Wed Oct-27-04 06:12 PM
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8. Baloney. Bush should not be gaining at this point.

We have a lot of work to do .Lets get out there. I am leaving shortly to go to HQ.And I am going to sqwak like hell that they aren't paying any attention to Az when we are only 2 points behind. Gore neglected us and he narrowly lost. We can pull this one out and then we have some leeway!

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mvd

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Wed Oct-27-04 06:12 PM
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9. Averages of all state polls are still good

I'm not counting Quinnipiac or Mason-Dixon. I believe that Survey USA samples more Repukes sometimes but has shown enough results close to others to be included.

Michigan could easily be Kerry's again tomorrow in Zogby's poll, but maybe Michigan is this year's California.

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pabloseb

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Wed Oct-27-04 06:16 PM
Response to Original message

10. Look at the trend

Yesterday * was up 4 in FL, today he's up 2.
Yesterday * was up 2 in OH, today Kerry is up 1.
Yesterday * was up 5 in NM, today he's up 3.
Yesterday Kerry was up 2 in WI, today he's up by4.
Yesterday Kerry was up 2 in CO, today he's up by 4.
Yesterday Kerry was up 2 in MN, today he's up by 3.

The states who got worse are MI (was Kerry up 5, now tie) and NV (was * +3, now +7).

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