Historians dissect impact of elections 10/27/2004
Debunk myths. Perhaps the biggest data point that jumps out is the one that dismisses what is perhaps the biggest myth on Wall Street: that stocks do better under Republican presidents.
In the past 100 years, stocks have posted bigger gains under Democrats. The Dow Jones industrial average has enjoyed an average annual return of 13.3% in the 48 years of Democratic rule, vs. average gains of 6.9% in the 56 years under Republicans, according to the 2005 Stock Trader's Almanac. The Almanac says a $10,000 investment has grown to almost $280,000 under Democrats but only $79,000 under Republicans.
There's one final stat to know: How the Dow fares the last two months prior to the presidential election usually predicts who will win. If it goes up, the incumbent wins; if it falls, the incumbent loses. The accuracy rate of this barometer since 1900 is a hard-to-ignore 92%, says InvesTech research. If that predictor works again this year it could spell trouble for Bush, because the Dow is down 3.9% since Sept. 2.
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
