Rasmussen Battleground Polls for 10/27 : What am I looking at ?

Rasmussen 3 day national tracking poll has bush at 48.8% to Kerry at 47.0%. this is a 1.8% gain from yesterday. With leaners included, Bush's lead is 49.5% to 48.1%.

In the Rasmussen 7 day rolling averages of 5 key battleground states, I will provide the results for today, with leaners included in the synopsis:

Florida, Tie 48% (This is unchanged for the fifth consecutive day. With leaners included, Kerry leads 49%-47%)

Michigan, Kerry 51%-46% (This is unchanged from yesterday. With leaners included, Kerry leads 52%-46%)

Minnesota, Bush 48%-45% (This is unchanged form yesterday. With leaners included, Bush leads 50%-47%)

Ohio, 50%-46% (This is unchanged from yesterday. With leaners included, Bush leads 51%-47%)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 50%-46% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday. With leaners included, Kerry leads 52%-46%)

me.
These numbers sound funny.
What is wrong with them?

Basically, the Rasmussen method net oversamples older voters (few people in the household relative to the number of land phone lines, home much of the time) and undersamples young people/minorities/new residents (more people per land line, younger on average/not home as much). The Rasmussen modelling is pretty accurate in midterm and other medium/low turnout elections, really, but not much good once turnout goes up over e.g. 50%.

In some states, with relatively elderly white populations and few or elderly/long time resident minority populations, the Rasmussen modelling works. The Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio numbers are very likely right within 1-2%.

The Florida numbers probably underrepresent the Hispanic growth and black turnout going Democratic. The Minnesota numbers probably don't get enough of the Hmong and other Twin City immigration and probably the relatively large number of young voters in the state, e.g. college students and twenties. They're easily off 3-5% in a Republican direction.

in Florida than Minnesota.

I hope the Packers fans give Kerry a break. I am worried because I know the emotions of the CHEESEHEADS.