New LA Times state polls: OH +6, Fl -8, PA tie

Very strange results... which they acknowledge in the article.

Link: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-poll28oct28,0,7555059.story?coll=la-home-headlines

Excerpt for those who don't want to register:

In Florida, where liberal independent Ralph Nader is on the ballot, the poll found Bush leading Kerry among likely voters, 51% to 43%, with Nader attracting 2% and 4% undecided.

In Ohio, where Nader is not on the ballot, Kerry leads Bush by 50% to 44%, with 6% undecided, the poll found. In Pennsylvania, where Nader also will not be on the ballot, Bush and Kerry both draw 48%, with 4% undecided.

Looking at all registered voters in the three states changes the picture only slightly. Among that larger group, Bush still leads Kerry in Florida by 49% to 41%. In Ohio, Kerry leads among registered voters by 49% to 45%; in Pennsylvania, registered voters give Kerry a 48% to 45% edge.

Some experts in both Florida and Ohio said they would be surprised if the leads were that large. "It is possible, but I don't think it's likely," said Jim Kane, executive director of the nonpartisan Florida Poll. "The general thrust of the other surveys, including our own, has it much closer than that."

:hi:

Kerry is up in PA, and slightly in Ohio. However, I agree with Mr. Kane that Florida is very close. No way Bush is up by anywhere close to 8 points.

I give credit to the LA Times for quoting experts who dispute these results. For the same reason, I guess these are honest polls (Have you ever seen Gallup acknowledging they're outliers?). May be it's just statistical noise.

When it was 3 points the other way in 2000.

I misread - thought the L.A. TImes had Kerry up in FL....

as the article points out, Ohio lost lots of jobs while Florida gained some jobs (although not enough to keep up with population growth).

I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Kerry does better in OH than FL this year. Of course, I do not expect a 14 point difference between the two states.