Dean Back On Top of Zogby Poll in IA - Democratic Underground

slinkerwink

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:13 AM
Original message

Dean Back On Top of Zogby Poll in IA

A lot of people predicted this. Monday was a particularly bad day for Dean, losing to Kerry 25-18.

Here's the latest:

Dean- 24
Gep- 21
Kerry-21
Edwards- 15

http://whotv.com/Global/story.asp?S=1601518&nav=5ZinKDQN

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molly

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:14 AM
Response to Original message

1. Where did you get these numbers?

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angee_is_mad

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:14 AM
Response to Original message

2. Wow

3 point lead!!! What is the margin of error?

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ClintonTyree

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:17 AM
Original message

These polls............

are really quite meaningless now. What happens Monday next will be the final indicator. These will probably seesaw back and forth until then.

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ALago1

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:17 AM
Response to Original message

3. What is most interesting...

...is that 13% are still undecided. Most of these 13 percent will probably make up their mind monday morning. I still think this race is up for grabs.

Can't find the margin of error anywhere. They are generally around 3-4%

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HumanPatriot

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:18 AM
Response to Reply #3

8. Wrong...

13% will stay warm at home watching TV.

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Dookus

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:17 AM
Response to Original message

4. Let's look at the three-days

1/9-11 1/10-12 1/11-13

Dean 26% 28% 24%

Gephardt 23% 23% 21%

Kerry 16% 17% 21%

Edwards 12% 14% 15%

Lieberman 2% 1% 1%

Clark 2% 2% 3%

Kucinich 3% 3% 2%

Sharpton 1% .1% .1%

Braun 1% 1% 1%

Undecided 14% 12% 13%

So in fact, Dean is down four and Kerry is up 4.

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XanaDUer

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:17 AM
Response to Original message

5. Here is the latest poll...

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=780

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molly

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:19 AM
Response to Reply #5

11. Looks to me like Kerry is on top!

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XanaDUer

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:20 AM
Response to Reply #11

13. Yup-that's because he is

;)

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Lobo_13

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:17 AM
Response to Original message

6. Don't get too excited

Lots of work to do yet. Polls are meaningless, what counts is getting the bodies into the caucus site.

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frustrated_lefty

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:17 AM
Response to Original message

7. Thanks for posting Slinkster

I think he's going to close Iowa with 28-30%. The endorsements by Harkin, Sheen and Moseley-Braun will do it.

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cindyw

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:18 AM
Response to Original message

9. Yesterdays numbers.

New numbers have:

Kerry 22%, Dean and Gephardt 21% and Edwards 17%

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Blaukraut

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:19 AM
Response to Original message

10. actually not correct

The numbers you posted are from the 1/11 - 1/13 polling. The newer numbers, where Kerry holds the lead, are from 1/12 - 1/14.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=780

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Dookus

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:19 AM
Response to Original message

12. I just checked... your numbers are old.

Zogby's newest numbers have Kerry at 22, Dean at 21.

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Maddy McCall

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:21 AM
Response to Original message

14. Actually, Trippi says don't trust the polls (because they show Kerry tied

with Dean. This is the link at msnbc to which your article was linked:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/ID/3965938/
Trippi dismissed the latest Zogby data showing Kerry and Dean statistically tied.

“If anybody is looking at those tracking polls, including our own, and thinking that they’re accurate or show anything that has anything to do with anything that’s going to happens on Monday, I caution you there is a long history of tracks particularly in the last week having nothing to do with the outcome. ... I’ve been here through four Iowa caucuses and the one consistent thing I can tell you is that the tracking polls have always been wrong in the last week.”

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Moderator

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Fri Jan-16-04 12:21 AM
Response to Original message

15. Locking

Numbers are out of date.

DU Moderator

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