O.K. tell me again why the polls with a tie in NJ shouldn't worry me?

Granted I'm in a more repug heavy section of NJ but still. I take a different route to work and then home and both ways I literally cannot go 1 block without seeing at least 1 Bush/Cheney sign, and I see a grand total of 0 Kerry Edwards signs. This is a 20 minute ride each way. And every day for the past week I have driven behind someone with a pro-bush or an anti-Kerry sticker. Unto itself this wouldn't worry me, but coupled with the polls showing a tie, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned. Besides in order for me to believe that Kerry has a chance in places like Arkansas and Florida and a few other states, I have to believe the polls so why do I believe those and ignore the ones saying NJ is a tie?

Again, maybe I'm just tired because I've been up since 4AM but still. I could use some convincing on this one.

On most properties. Oh, and forget the polls - they're all crap.

Jeez, you live there and I don't and I know more about it than you do. :P

there is no sign of it being Kerry country. Again, I know logically it should be Kerry country but that doesn't stop me from being concerned. I'm not taking anything for granted.

What pollster is showing a tie?

a tie always goes to the challenger. A tie in the polls is essentially a loss for the idiot.

In New Jersey, three late polls, two by Quinnipiac University and one by the Gannett newspapers, all showed Al Gore with a fairly narrow lead--ranging from 5 to 8 points. Gore carried the state by 16. This year we're again seeing some state polls showing that New Jersey is close. We'll see if they're any more accurate this time than they were four years ago.

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000792.php

:D

...this election has pretty much been over since the debates. For *W to win, several improbable electoral scenarios have to take place; conversely, for Kerry to lose everything has to line up perfectly for his opponent, and even then it would only be by the thinnest of margins.
IMHO, it's not going to be near as close as people think. Kerry in a walk, if not exactly a stroll...believe it.

Look at what the campaigns are doing. If NJ was in play, Kerry would have to either campaign there, send surrogates there, or advertise there, or else risk a major loss of EV's that would throw his winning strategy out the window. Conversely, the Bush campaign would be advertising in a effort to exacerbate the problem for Kerry. I'm in NYC and everything's quiet.

We've all seen the mentality of the Bush lovers. Most people don't want to have their property vandalized by those shit-heads. That's why I don't have a Kerry sticker on my car. That combined with the natural tendency of immature Bush supporters to stifle the competition by stealing yard signs probably accounts for the visible difference in Kerry support.

most show Kerry ahead- single digits, thogh. I would be shocked and horrified if this state went for that Schmuck. I live in Hoboken, the 'mile-square city' hit very hard by 9/11- we lost 53 people in this small town- and I see Kerry-Edwards signs everywhere. I've spotted just ONE Bush-Cheney sign.

I suppose we all have reason to be nervous since the polls are this tight- but we have to have hope and see what transpires in the remaining days. Look at the positive- we are doing well in the battlegrounds and even Arkansas might go blue.

Cheers!

LA Times is a pretty progressive paper, and were first to pick up on Kerry's strength, months ago. That is why it is all the more disturbing to have PA tied, and Bush +8 in Florida (although Kerry surging in OH!. Here's the URL: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-poll28oct28,0,7555059.story?coll=la-home-headlines

IMHO all the "Kerry in a landslide" posts are bad karma - Repugs had huge GOTV success in 2002 and our side will have to replicate that this year - when people hear "landslide" they figure they can stay home

Bush is not up 8 in FL. noone will win FL by more than about 3.

Dems rule PA. Kerry's got that by at least 5. Almost every poll has Kerry up good.

'our' side does have huge GOTV this year. sheesh.

:eyes:

and now has Bush up by 2

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=489

PA is going for Kerry. no question. case closed.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-poll28oct28,0,7555059.story?coll=la-home-headlines

from the link:

"The Times Poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 941 registered voters in Florida, of which 510 were deemed likely to vote; 1,026 registered voters in Ohio, of which 585 were deemed likely to vote; and 927 in Pennsylvania, of which 585 were deemed likely to vote. The survey was conducted Friday through Tuesday, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points among likely voters."

Why do they throw out so many of the survey's results?

"Looking at all registered voters in the three states changes the picture slightly. Among this larger group, Bush leads Kerry in Florida by 8 percentage points, 49% to 41%. Kerry leads in Ohio, 49% to 45%. In Pennsylvania, the registered-voter group favors Kerry, 48% to 45%."

...compared to all major polls. For example, Bush* hadn't dropped below 50% approval in that poll until just this month, whereas even the Gallup Poll showed Bush* well below 50% earlier in the year.

The LA Times may be a "progressive" leaning paper, but it's polls are clearly not.

There's still enough time to call your local Dem headquarters and volunteer. Work the phones, canvass, work a polling place. If it's looking close, maybe your efforts will make the difference.

That would hurt

i'm worried sick about nj and pa.


either one of these for bush, will be a win in the g.e. for him.

Why are NJ and PA even (arguably) in contention - if Kerry is going to win, he needs to be winning big in states like this - Gore took NJ by 15 points in 2000 - 15 points!

a minority in New Jersey. Also, a lot of Kerry signs that I have seen placed on the road have been taken down by Repugs. I my neighborhood there is only one Chaney sign and one Kerry sign on peoples lawns.

Also, many people are not spending the money only to have their sign ruined or removed.

they want volunteers to sail right over it and into Pa. to help there.
Worry not. We are winning NJ. All those suburban fat cats can cry in their tax cut milk when Essex and Hudson and Bergen counties come down HUGE for Kerry.

If you're in western NJ near the PA border, I'm sure you'd find a lot of pockets of Bushbots. That doesn't mean the state as a whole has any chance of going red.

I live in California, and despite its reputation as a liberal and overwhelmingly blue state, it still has many thick pockets of wingnuttery, including the outskirts of the Bay Area - yes, within driving distance to San Francisco and the People's Republic of Berkeley.

Back in 2000, I was working in San Mateo down on the Peninsula and I saw a solid number of B/C signs even there. I'm sure that if I lived in, say, Fresno or Bakersfield or San Diego, I would be seeing B/C signs up the wazoo.

btw- Kerry will win New Jersey by ten points...