Which candidate will appeal the most to bush supporters?

I don't mean the hardcore chosen by God to bring Jesus back people with Savage Nation tatoos.

I'm talking about that average Joe kind of guy, not rich, but able to pay his bills and maybe save a little, take the family to the beach.

Joe voted for Bush in 2000, likes his plain way of speaking, thought Gore was a little effete, (although Joe might not have that word on the first shelf of his vocabulary cabinet).

Not that Joe is stupid. He reads. Tom Clancy and John Updike, mostly. He doesn't watch much TV. He watches his local news, sometimes Fox, he gets a kick out of that O'Reilly sometimes.

What has started to worry Joe about a second Bush term, he can't quite put his finger on it, that immigration speech was just crazy. Joe doesn't consider himself a racist, but on the other hand, he doesn't see why it's so terrible for people to feel more comfortable around other people they have more in common with. If you ask him, he doesn't mind telling you that there is too much immigration now, and it's not good for the economy, and it's not good for the war on terror. What we need to do, says Joe, is assimilate the ones that are here now. He can't remember the last time he went anywhere he didn't hear people speaking Spanish. Or something. Live in America, speak English, is the way he sees it.

Now that Mars thing, he is still shaking his head about that. Best Joe can figure, it must be something to do with the war on terror. They must know something Joe doesn't, be planning something, because this just doesn't seem like a good time to be sending a rocket to Mars.

Joe is very aware that we've got our boys (and girls, not Joe's favorite idea, but then, times change) over there in harm's way, fighting the terrorists, defending our way of life. Joe was in the service, he knows that it's a risk you take, when you put on that uniform, that's what being a soldier means, and from the looks of it, Iraq isn't the end of it. This war on terror isn't Grenada. He is concerned about some things he's read, military being stretched. That's not good. Not a good way to start out here at the beginning of the war on terror. He personally thinks a volunteer army is better, but is resigned to the fact that there is going to have to be a draft. He likes the Powell doctrine. That's what we need to do. Overwhelming force. Don't leave any doubts about who's boss, get the job done.

It's not that he thinks Bush is doing a bad job with the war, it's just another one of those things he can't quite put his finger on. It seems like every time he turns on the news, there's somebody from somewhere talking about how much they hate America, everything is America's fault. That gets old. And it is starting to come from some places he wouldn't have expected it. Like Europe. Guess they forgot who saved their butt. That was the Greatest Generation, all right. The whole world, well, the whole civilized world pulled together, got the job done.

Joe's health insurance just went up. He's thinking about switching his plan to an HMO, he and the wife are pretty healthy, and what they are taking out of his check is starting to eat into the vacation money. Problem is, the HMO makes you pick from their list of doctors, and it's not a very long list. Oh, it looked like a long list, but once the wife started calling, she found out that most of them didn't take the HMO patients anymore. He's still studying on that one.

Joe was not a big fan of Clinton but he's a fair man, and he has to give Clinton credit for welfare reform. That was long overdue. Joe doesn't believe in handouts. Hard work is the way to success, he's always said. You may not get rich, but you'll get ahead. Lately, though, Joe can't help but wonder about so many companies sending the work overseas, where they'll work for nothing, just about. He's not sure if cutting down on the number of people who get to work hard and get ahead will make things better for him, better for the country. He had kind of expected the price of gas to go down once they got it pumping good over in Iraq, but the terrorists are giving them a pretty hard time, it seems to be taking some time to get it pumping good. He's heard a lot of people whose opinions he respects watching the economy, so far, Joe is doing OK, with so many people out of work, he shouldn't complain, but he doesn't really get a good feeling about so many people being out of work.

So Joe knows the old saying about changing horses in the middle of the stream, but he just isn't sure about four more years of Bush. It's no one thing, just a feeling...

Which candidate has the best chance of getting Joe's support?

Disclaimer: I do not support any of the candidates

that I'm going to have to mull over a bit. Though I did crack up trying to imagine a regular Joe consuming both Clancy and Updike!

Of course, based upon who I support in this primary, I'll naturally say Wes Clark but I'd like to give a more reasoned response.

:-)

:) But they won't vote for him. They'll either stay home or punch the chad for Georgie.

for any candidate that speaks to him, or about him, so condescendingly.

Joe, who voted for Shrub, is a patriotic guy; he's not comfortable with Iraq, but he's worried about terrorism. He wants a President who will fix the mess in Iraq, & secure us at home. And oh, yeah, whatever happened to Osama bin Laden?

Joe wasn't comfortable with Gore, as you said. He likes a tougher kind of guy; he's not crazy about "liberals." He needs a comfort level, a guy's guy, who better than a decorated General?

Joe's not happy with all the money that's being spent over in Iraq. He really thinks we should have our allies with us. Who can repair these alliances? Who better that former SACEUR?

Joe agrees with the Democrats on most issues, however fo years now, the Dems have been called unpatriotic, liberal, big-spending, etc. etc. So subconsciously Joe wants to vote for a Dem, but he's not one of those "left-wing nuts". Who is a different kind of Dem? A General.

Joe's worked hard his whole life. He doesn't like handouts. He likes a guy who's earned everything through hard work. An average Joe who made good, not a rich guy, they spend too much money, like Bush. The rich guys don't understand how hard it is for the average guy today.
Which of these guys made it on his own? Never had a thing handed to him? The General.

Sorry this was as not well done as I'd like, but your question intrigued me, & this is a rapid response, based on my gut feeling for Clark's univeral appeal.

It seems to me Gen. Clark will be most capable of making a successful appeal to your average Joe, Mr. Fatwa.

The uniform will serve as a seriously soothing factor. Joe will be very worried about putting the nation's security in a dangerous world into naive or incompetent hands, and that will worry him about many Democrats. He will come to the table already half-convinced any Republican will be better at that than any Democrat, but he will know a General must be a patriot, and must know something about fighting and war. He will listen to the man, and he will find a cry of "liberal General" impacts his ear like "jumbo shrimp"; it will sound a little sensless and funny on its face.

This will open his ear to other fields of debate: Joe will value his country above many other things, and will have to be sure it will be safe before he will act on concerns that are more selfish. He already knows that any proposal by any Democrat concerning things like health insurance, ot increasing employment, will be better than any proposal from any Republican. As you say, he is not stupid and he is pretty fair, and will remember he was doing a better himself under Prsident Clinton, and worried less for himself and his family over material things. He is somewhat over the idea Republicans handle the economy better than Democrats: maybe it was true in Daddy's day, but not now.

Democrats would be very foolish to either agree with, or oppose head-on, the recent immigration proposals. Assimilation is a good thing, and both ilegal immigration and guest worker programs are bad things. That latter drive down wages and pump up unemployment, and place the workers of our country even more at the mercy of the boss: Joe knows this, and he is right in his untutored analysis. Joe wants a clamp on the borders, and he would be amenable to citizenship for people already here. That would be the proper line to adopt in this question; the one with the widest possible appeal throughout the country.

The space fantasy unsettles Joe because it seems childish dreaming, and one of the things Joe has a hard time putting his finger on is a sense that he is being treated as child, taken for a fool, not respected as an adult by his leaders. People do not like being manipulated and talked down to, and will sense when it is being done, aven when it is couched in "just folks" phrasings. These will be prefered to smarmy and obvious condescension, mind, but absent that, the bonhommie of a rich fellow in shirt sleeves will grate as badly.

I work alongside other sub-contractors, most of which don't vote because we live in a solid dem state and they see it as futile( I think they're just lazy). In frank discussions the only dem they like is Kerry. Mostly his military service I suspect...but I think it's probably also his stature.
I personally don't care for Clark, and assumed they would love him..ex-general, blah, blah, blah. One of them asked me why Clark didn't run against Bush in the primary....I had to point out Clark was running as a democrat.
Nah, I think if any of these guys ever vote...it'll be with a republican lever.

To depress the enemy's turn-out. You doubt these will vote in any case, but they would be more easily roused to vote against some candidates than others. People do, more often than not, vote against rather than for....

of *. (She's elderly and wealthy -- works here for something to do -- and quite fiscally conservative.)

I think Mars and immigration were the last straws.

She's coming to the primary and voting .... Edwards.

My jaw dropped. She said she liked Lieberman a bit, but liked Edwards more.

its all about image for the average stupid voter. People see Leiberman as a whiney loser, Clark has the military background and comes off like he knows what he wants. He has confidence and doesn't try to explain both sides of an issue. That is what people want, someone with a simple solution with credibility.

Great post. Really puts into perspective what a lot of swing voters are thinking this year.

n/t

We want a candidate who panders to Joe's misconceptions and fears, then Clark or Lieberman would probably be most appealing to him. If we want a candidate who can advance traditionally democratic principles while doing a good job of persueading Joe to rethink things, then Dean or Edwards.

That's what I hear from many conservatives.

We should focus on turning out minorities, women, and professsionals -- i.e., our base. Note that all three are massive growth groups with respect to population. We cannot afford a repeat of the 2002 disaster where we went Bushlite trying to appeal to the imaginary "Joes" you mention above. The people that voted for Gore and Nader in 2000 are the ones that we need to turn out again.

Every Joe I've come across who takes the time to read Dean's Common Sense broadside, comes away a Dean voter.
When I hear the word "gaffe" I know the voter knows nothing about Dean. How many people ever used the word gaffe before the massive media smear against Dean.
I say to these people. "Just LISTEN to the man, not the media". And you know what, the call me back and say "I like your boy Dean".

According to FAUX, the only "honest" Democrats are the Liebermans, Millers, Breauxs, and Bayhs of the party :eyes:

Down the list..

Lieberman. Why have bush-lite when you can have bush?
Edwards.. still too unknown. Looks good though.
Kerry... Old establishment liberal.
Gephart.. Old Arch enemy
Clark... Perceived as a traitor with strains of strangelove. Bush-lite also.

I think Dean is the only choice. Perceived strength and machismo, at least verbally. Might not be on ideological grounds, But it looks, as a governor he has solved problems. Non Liberal establishment. Might work for a Republican who feels bush has failed. And who cares more for results instead of party.

Grok

perceived as a traitor?

By who?

Strangelove?

By who?

This is by far both the most pathetic and annoying post I have come across on this forum to date.

What a joke.

Hey, If if somebody comes to our side from the other, we DON'T consider him a traitor, but enlightened. The question is how the OTHER side feels.

Don't you consider Zell a traitor?

Grok

In regard to the original post, however, while I might agree that Miller has betrayed the Party that supported him for decades, Clark was never a member of the Republican Party at anytime in his life.

The charge he was a Republican is a lie, as is the implication that he "is" a Republican now.

You can't betray a group you never were part of, or supported. That is why the "traitor" label rang my bell so fast. I apologise for jumping on you like that.

No apologies necessary. Things are a little testy at this crucial time. But little things, that i won't go into, point to him being somewhat part of their club at sometime. At least in spirit.

Sometimes perception is more important than reality.

Grok

Joe Lieberman actually won an endorsement from the National Review for a Senate run back in the day I think. Plus, some of my Rep. friends say that's the one candidate they feel like they could actually find a good deal of common ground with. One guy I work with thinks Wes Clark and Dean are one in the same.

Dean for his expressed desire for laissez-faire capitalism/minimal govt and social safety net.

Clark for his military background.

Edwards for his Southern accent.

Lieberman for his willingness to use the military to protect Israel.

When did Lieberman say this?

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

People who don't know about the Kerry campaign don't know that he is tied with Gephardt on the union vote in Iowa, ahead of Dean and Edwards. And they underestimate his connection to veterans as well. Once people get to see him, the stupid elitist notion is quickly dispelled. First and foremost, Joe is about family, duty, responsibility and integrity. That is the life of John Kerry. The Joes who are really tired of some of the ignorant statements the Confederate Flag wavers make will see something new in John Kerry. Someone who knows how to draw clear lines when it comes to security but who also isn't a neanderthal and will make culture part of the community again. See, Joe knows humans can't just be work, work, work and he certainly doesn't want that for his kids.

Edwards can talk to them and Joe will relate to him. Joe will absolutely know Edwards isn't going to hand over his hard earned paycheck to frivilous nonsense. Many might vote for him. Most Joe's, however, won't see a whole lot in John Edwards that will make them recognize that he is offering a real alternative path. While they know there is something about Bush that they don't quite trust, Edwards doesn't tell Joe what that something is and how he is going to make it different.

Clark can absolutely talk to Joe too. It's tough for Joe not to listen to a General. And he really likes the idea that Clark knows that a family earning less than $50,000 in America isn't exactly living the life of Riley and that he won't have to pay taxes. He's a little uncomfortable about that, he wants to do his share, but still, that's tough to turn down. And he finally is hearing somebody explain what it is about Bush that has been bugging him and telling him exactly how he's going to fix that stuff. But still, there's that nagging Kosovo thing and he is mixed up with those Clintons. Hmmm.

Reaching Joe will be tough. Reaching Jane will be alot easier and we should always remember there's more Janes than Joes. Janes love Kerry, look at his endorsements. Look at his voting demographics. Kerry can reach Joe, at least enough to where they won't hate him, even if they don't vote for him. Jane will vote for him and put him in the White House.

Kossovo was a well-fought war, and to a good purpose. It makes rather a pleasant contrast with the current brouha in Iraq, the errors in execution of which Gen. Clark is accordingly well positioned to point out. Joe wants wars fought well, and knows they are not sanitary things. The criticisms of Kossovo mounted from the radical left are just more shrill "hate America-ism" to him, and if elements on the right attempt them, the best counter is simply to note their identity with pronouncements from the radical left Joe so disdains: he does not want to hear that kind of clap-trap from anyone, left or right. Joe identifies strongly with his country and its military; he thinks it is the best thing in this world, and to attack its conduct as criminal is to attack him as a criminal, and he will not thank anyone for doing so....

But they will drive away ten times as many progressives.

There are not ten times as many progressives to drive off.

Cadre, in this crisis, must exercise self-discipline, and do what must be done to strike an effective blow at the most reactionary elements of our polity, whatever their personal preferences might be. Successful radical movements have hewed to the necessary line; failed ones to the self-indulgent line.

Really, I think we can win over a lot of Bush-voters in 2004.

seem to think clark is an ok dude. even more interesting, the green guy in my office likes him too. this is the first time since i started working there (5 years) that we are all pretty much on the same page. clark might actually be (to use an already overused term) a uniter.

he's moderate, populist, appealing and charismatic.

There is nothing NOT to like and his has shown once again with his efforts in Iowa that you had better not ever underestimate him.

He knows how to win and win he shall !