Kerry takes lead in race for Democrat nomination

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=481720

John Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, has edged into the lead ahead of Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt in the contest to be the Democrats' presidential candidate. With four days to go, the race in Iowa has become a three-way tie with the trio of frontrunners separated by less than one percentage point, the latest polls showed.

But the difference between the three is so slight ­ Mr Kerry is on 21.6 points with Mr Dean and Mr Gephardt both on 20.9 points ­ that the margin of error built into the polls means they are, in effect, tied. This is the first time that Mr Dean has fallen behind.

What is more certain is that, as the contest has tightened and entered its final stages, the campaign has become increasingly barbed and that the sniping among the candidates has reached new levels of venom. Dick Gephardt, the Missouri Congressman and former Democratic House leader who experts say must win in Iowa if he is to have any chance of securing the Democratic nomination, has been particularly outspoken in his attacks on Mr Dean, until now considered the frontrunner in the state.

Little more than a week ago, Mr Dean was seeking to avoid such confrontation with rivals, claiming he intended to remain above such negative attacks. But, having seen his former narrow lead in Iowa slip away in recent days, Mr Dean has gone on the offensive. In an interview broadcast on Iowa public television on Wednesday evening he dismissed the attacks from his rival. "I think it's sort of a sad commentary on Dick Gephardt," he said.

I looked. No name of who took the poll. No methods of the polling done. No info on the polling dates. Nothing.

I have a thing for underdogs and Kerry has been one since Dean entered the race.

Not that I have anything against Dean but I would like to see things get interesting and have the nomination process last 'till the convention...

As usual, the British press is clueless about American politics. Just the other day they were talking about "Senator" Dick Gephardt, and now John Kerry is leading the pack? I don't think so. Kerry isn't the front-runner, he's merely doing better than expected in an Iowa poll for caucuses that are notoriously difficult to predict ahead of time. Howard Dean, on the other hand, continues to enjoy a lead in virtually all national polls, as well as a GIGANTIC lead in fundraising (historically the best indicator of who will be nominated), excellent organization in large states such as California, New York and Florida, and tons of grass-roots support. Those are the signs of a true front-runner.

You don't mean clueless like this do you?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,3604,1120778,00.html

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=476725

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/review/story/0,6903,1120202,00.html

are all over the place now and will be until Monday. Other polls show Dean ahead. For the next four days these will shift back and forth with conflicting results. Believe them at the risk of being misinformed.

The one thing these polls tell us is that it is close. Anybody within 3 or 4 points of the top has a shot. There's a possibility that these polls might become a self fulfilling prophecy, but there's an equal possibility that they'll all be wrong.